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M-OH

Miami (OH) 27 at Buffalo 35

BUF
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Tyler Grassman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by David Frazier at the MiaOh 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior+8.1Home team on offense+1.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:13: Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 27 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +16.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:58: Anthone Taylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke MISSED) — BUF win probability +15.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:35: Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joe Licata intercepted ) — BUF win probability +18.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:13: Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 32 yds for a TD, (Andrew Hendrix failed) — M-OH win probability +15.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:19: Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joe Licata failed) — BUF win probability +21.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 9:51M-OH 4th & 5 at BUF 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:14M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:51BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:52BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 23, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:40M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:40BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 23, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:13BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:14M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:53M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−3.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:13M-OH 4th & 7 at BUF 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:19M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 30, down 5
    Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:28BUF 4th & 6 at M-OH 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−11.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:29M-OH 4th & 15 at BUF 37, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:13BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:17M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 18, down 8
    Close callPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:35M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:00BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:21BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:18M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:13M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2534% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+36
66.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 36 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
66.4%
Andrew Hendrix run for 26 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
66.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 8 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+2
66.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
66.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
65.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 6 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:3165% → 67%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
65.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 18 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
65.6%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+15
65.5%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron, PENALTY MU roughing passer (WINTERS, M.) 15 yards to the MU33, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
65.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 25 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
65.6%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
66.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 9 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
65.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David FrazierSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
65.3%
Dawan Scott run for 7 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-2
65.3%
Dawan Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
65.6%
Christian Koch punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:0666% → 70%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
65.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
65.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
65.8%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+11
65.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 11 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
66.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
66.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
66.4%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass complete to MARTINEZ, Jacob for 14 yards to the MU28, out-of-bounds (WOOD, Lo), PENALTY UB holding (KLING, John) 10 yards to the UB48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+6
66.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to N/A for 6 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 14
OPP 46
0
66.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob Martinez, broken up by Kent KernSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+5
65.7%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to CAMPBELL, Devin, PENALTY MU offside (ALBRIGHT, B.) 5 yards to the MU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+10
66.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 10 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
66.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for no gain to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
70.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 31 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
68.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
68.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David Frazier, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
69.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
69.5%
Christian Koch punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
69.3%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
69.2%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+22
68.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 22 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
70.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
70.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob Martinez, broken up by J'Terius JonesSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
69.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by Bryson AlbrightSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
69.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:1431% → 31%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.2%
Dawan Scott run for no gain to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
69.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+18
69.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 18 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
68.7%
Spencer McInnis run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
68.1%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
68.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
69.2%
Christian Koch punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
70.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
69.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 5 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+4
69.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
69.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by David Frazier at the MiaOh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David FrazierSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
69.1%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
69.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
70.1%
Christian Koch punt for 50 yds, downed at the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
70.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
70.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+9
69.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
70.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to N/A for 8 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
70.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-1
70.0%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
69.2%
Tyler Grassman punt for 31 yds , Fred McRae returns for no gain to the MiaOh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:5330% → 39%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
69.6%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Kyril Threats for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+61
60.8%
Dawan Scott run for 61 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
63.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 4 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
63.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+12
63.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 12 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
64.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
65.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-4
65.1%
Joe Licata sacked by J'Terius Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
63.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by David Frazier at the MiaOh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
60.4%
Andrew Hendrix run for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+4
60.8%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+18
61.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 18 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
59.8%
Andrew Hendrix run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
59.2%
Dawan Scott run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
59.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
60.9%
Christian Koch punt for 55 yds, downed at the Buff 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:5162% → 64%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
62.4%
Devin Campbell run for 3 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+8
63.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 8 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
62.6%
[PSTL], LICATA, Joe rush for 3 yards to the UB19 (WINTERS, M.), PENALTY UB holding (SILAS, Jake) 8 yards to the UB8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+18
62.2%
Devin Campbell run for 18 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
62.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
63.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Quinten Rollins BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
62.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
63.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-4
64.1%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+10
61.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 10 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
63.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by David Frazier at the MiaOh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 3:2041% → 62%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
58.7%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
58.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 6 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
57.8%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 2 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+29
57.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 29 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
54.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+27
38.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 27 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:0744% → 63%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
43.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 5 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-15
45.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Buff 19Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 20
OWN 19
+16
43.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 16 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+15
43.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
50
+11
47.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
47.8%
Marcus McGill pass complete to Devon Hughes for 26 yds to the MiaOh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
62.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
55.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David Frazier, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
55.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
57.0%
[SGUN], HENDRIX, Andrew pass complete to WELCH, Alex for 18 yards to the MU38 (ALOZIE, Okezie), PENALTY MU pass interference (WELCH, Alex) 10 yards to the MU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+11
57.0%
Spencer McInnis run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
58.2%
Christian Koch punt for 43 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for no gain to the Buff 21 MIAMI OH Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Buff 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:5460% → 76%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
59.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
60.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 10 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
61.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+12
61.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 12 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
62.6%
Devin Campbell run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+11
62.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 11 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
62.6%
Devin Campbell run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 15 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Robert Blodgett) to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 17
OPP 25
+11
62.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 11 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
62.6%
Devin Campbell run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+7
57.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joe Licata intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:2233% → 52%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
66.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 30 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
61.2%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
61.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
63.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+32
48.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 32 yds for a TD, (Andrew Hendrix failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:5052% → 81%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
52.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+21
56.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 21 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
57.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
57.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 4 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+12
56.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
59.1%
Devin Campbell run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+20
59.1%
Devin Campbell run for 20 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joe Licata failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David Frazier, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.7%
Spencer McInnis run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
68.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
70.6%
Christian Koch punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 4:1980% → 90%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
79.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
79.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+12
78.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 12 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
80.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 20 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
81.0%
Devin Campbell run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
81.0%
Devin Campbell run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-2
79.7%
Jacob Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
89.9%
Patrick Clarke 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 38 yds · 1:5912% → 9%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David Frazier, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Spencer McInnisSimilar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+27
88.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 27 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
83.5%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
83.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
85.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David FrazierSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 9
OPP 47
+15
86.7%
[SGUN], HENDRIX, Andrew pass incomplete to FRAZIER, David (LESTER, Cortney), PENALTY UB pass interference 15 yards to the UB32, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
81.7%
[SGUN], PENALTY MU false start (COOK, Brandyn) 5 yards to the UB37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
84.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David Frazier, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
85.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Spencer McInnisSimilar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 15
OPP 37
0
87.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Kristjan Sokoli MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 15
OPP 37
0
90.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by Boise Ross MIAMI OH Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0694% → 94%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
93.7%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+3
94.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
94.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
93.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by David Frazier at the MiaOh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
92.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David FrazierSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
92.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David FrazierSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
93.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
93.6%
Christian Koch punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:1096% → 97%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
96.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-1
96.2%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+16
96.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 16 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
96.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 0
0
96.0%
PENALTY UB unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+20
96.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 20 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:19
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joe Licata failed)
+21.8
TD · Q3 0:35
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joe Licata intercepted )
+18.8
TD · Q3 9:13
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 27 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)
-16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com