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CMU

Central Michigan 28 at Toledo 42

TOL
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:55 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:50: Terry Swanson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +9.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:09: Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:43: Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 12 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +9.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:54: Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +13.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:00: Logan Woodside run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Logan Woodside pass to Damion Jones-Moore GOOD) — TOL win probability +7.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at CMU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09TOL 4th & 7 at CMU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:42TOL 4th & 4 at CMU 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:23CMU 4th & 21 at CMU 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:50CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, down 6
    Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:02TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 28, up 6
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:03CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:50TOL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:27TOL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:09CMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:43TOL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:44TOL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:03CMU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:54CMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:00TOL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 4:5183% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
82.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+20
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 20 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 8 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+10
82.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alex Zmolik, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
82.6%
Zac Rosenbauer run for 2 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
82.6%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to JONES, Corey for 10 yards to the CMU20 (ANNESE, Tony), PENALTY TOLEDO ineligible downfield on pass (NELSON, Chase) 5 yards to the CMU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+17
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 17 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
82.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
81.7%
Jeremiah Detmer 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0619% → 22%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.5%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
81.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 17 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
81.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
81.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+20
81.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 20 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
81.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 25 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
81.1%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3FG
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:1679% → 78%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
78.7%
REMY, Marc rush for 8 yards to the TOLEDO31 (CHAPMAN, J.), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (MANCZ, Greg) 10 yards to the TOLEDO13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 20
OWN 13
-3
78.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 10Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 23
OWN 10
+51
78.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 36 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, roughing passer (N/A) to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
79.0%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+15
79.0%
Marc Remy run for 15 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
79.3%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
79.3%
Marc Remy run for 9 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
79.3%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 11 Logan Woodside fumbled, recovered by Toled Logan WoodsideSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
79.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
78.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the CMich 4Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
77.7%
Jeremiah Detmer 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:3823% → 23%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
76.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 14 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
75.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-5
75.6%
Thomas Rawls run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
76.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony Rice, broken up by Jordan HadenSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
77.1%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FUMBLE
11 plays · 59 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
76.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
76.0%
Logan Woodside run for 7 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+5
75.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 5 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
76.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 18 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
77.4%
Marc Remy run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+15
77.3%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JONES, Corey, PENALTY CMU pass interference (WILSON, Jason) 15 yards to the CMU39, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
77.7%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
77.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 15 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
78.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-6
78.1%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 30 Logan Woodside fumbled, recovered by Toled Logan WoodsideSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+1
76.6%
Logan Woodside run for 1 yd to the CMich 26 Logan Woodside fumbled, forced by Joe Ostman, recovered by CMich Josh CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
73.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Thomas RawlsSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-3
73.4%
Cooper Rush sacked by Trent Voss for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 13
OWN 23
-8
74.1%
Cooper Rush sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 21
OWN 15
-2
74.7%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 55 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 28 Corey Jones fumbled, recovered by Toled N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:5773% → 80%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
73.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 11 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
73.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 41 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
75.8%
Terry Swanson run for 14 yds to the CMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
75.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
75.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Josh Hendershot) to the CMich 9Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
75.0%
Marc Remy run for 6 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.4%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
78.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 8 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
78.0%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+50
78.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 50 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:1880% → 88%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
80.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+19
80.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 19 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
80.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 20 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+29
81.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 29 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 5
OPP 6
+6
87.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 6 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5113% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
86.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 14 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
86.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+17
85.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 17 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
85.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 11 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
84.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+7
84.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 7 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
84.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 11 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
84.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Courtney Williams, broken up by Chaz WhittakerSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
80.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
81.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
80.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Jason WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
79.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
79.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Titus Davis, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
80.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+11
80.9%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Jordan Haden return for 11 yds to the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2683% → 92%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
83.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 6 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+13
83.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 13 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
83.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
83.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-5
82.2%
ROSENBAUER, Zac rush for 1 yard to the CMU6 (HAMILTON, Tim;WALTON, L.), PENALTY TOLEDO false start 5 yards to the CMU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
92.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 12 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:5092% → 98%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
50
-15
92.3%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to RUSSELL, Alonzo for 50 yards to the CMU0, clock 05:34, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (RUSSELL, Alonzo) 15 yards to the TOLEDO35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+1
91.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Marc Remy for 1 yd to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 24
OWN 36
+29
91.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 29 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
92.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 21 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
92.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 11 yds to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:413% → 9%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.1%
Martez Walker run for 11 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
97.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mike Kinville for 5 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
97.0%
Martez Walker run for 6 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Martez WalkerSimilar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+40
97.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 40 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
96.5%
Martez Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 14Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+7
96.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Allen Covington) to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.5%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
94.7%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.7%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
94.7%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Brandon Greer return for no gain to the CMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:447% → 22%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
93.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Martez Walker, broken up by Junior SylvestreSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+24
93.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 24 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
92.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 10 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
92.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 7 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
91.9%
Martez Walker run for 1 yd to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+12
92.1%
Anthony Rice run for 12 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
91.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 7 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
91.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
91.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 6 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+7
91.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 7 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:4888% → 98%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.1%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
88.9%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
88.4%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
89.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
89.0%
Logan Woodside run for 5 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+41
89.7%
Terry Swanson run for 41 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
90.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
98.2%
Logan Woodside run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Logan Woodside pass to Damion Jones-Moore GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:113% → 3%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
96.7%
PENALTY CMU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY TOLEDO unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
97.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Thomas Rawls for 4 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
97.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 5 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+32
97.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 32 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
96.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 14 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
96.6%
Cooper Rush run for 8 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+5
96.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 5 yds Anthony Rice fumbled, forced by Chaz Whittaker, recovered by Toled Chris DukesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 4Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 4
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:54
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q3 10:09
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q3 5:43
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 12 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com