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NORF

Norfolk State 7 at Buffalo 36

BUF
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadNORF aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreNORF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:05 · Dylan Shaddix punt for 55 yds , Marcus McGill returns for 4 yds to the Buff 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+44.2Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q1 5:06: Timeout NORFOLK ST, clock 05:06 — NORF win probability +1.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:01: Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 9 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +0.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:44: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Grassman failed) — BUF win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:05: Patrick Clarke 39 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:01: Joe Licata run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Grassman failed ) — BUF win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8NORF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05NORF 4th & 3 at NORF 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:58NORF 4th & 16 at NORF 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:44BUF 4th & 5 at NORF 49, up 13
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:48NORF 4th & 14 at NORF 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:24BUF 4th & 1 at NORF 21, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05BUF 4th & 13 at NORF 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:47BUF 4th & 2 at NORF 43, up 16
    Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:09NORF 4th & 1 at NORF 17, down 16
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:01NORF 4th & 18 at NORF 33, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:52BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 42, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:21NORF 4th & 7 at NORF 8, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 6 at NORF 40, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:50NORF 4th & 7 at NORF 27, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:52BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 16, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NORF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:34BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:15NORF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:01BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:40BUF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
95.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+9
95.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
95.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
95.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+1
95.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
95.4%
Tyler Grassman punt for 31 yds, downed at the NflkS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
94.7%
Aaron Daniels run for 2 yds to the NflkS 36Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
94.7%
Aaron Daniels run for 5 yds to the NflkS 41Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
94.7%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to Demetreus FerebeeSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+4
94.8%
Dylan Shaddix punt for 55 yds , Marcus McGill returns for 4 yds to the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
94.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 92 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 4TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
94.3%
Isaac White 68 Yd pass from Terrance Ervin (Ryan Lee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1494% → 94%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
94.4%
[PSTL], TAYLOR, Anthone rush for 9 yards to the UB34 (MARROW,Darrin), PENALTY NSU offside off-setting, PENALTY UB clipping off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
94.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
94.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-1
94.5%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
94.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
94.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 12 yds to the NflkS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
94.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the NflkS 37Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-15
94.5%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WEISER, Matt, PENALTY UB personal foul 15 yards to the UB48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+4
94.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the NflkS 48Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+35
94.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 35 yds to the NflkS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
94.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the NflkS 9Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
94.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 9 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
93.9%
Aaron Daniels run for 3 yds to the NflkS 34Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
93.9%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to Demetreus Ferebee, broken up by Okezie AlozieSimilar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+18
94.0%
Terrance Ervin run for 18 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
93.7%
Brendon Riddick run for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-3
93.7%
Brendon Riddick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-8
93.8%
Terrance Ervin sacked by Nick Gilbo and Kyril Threats for a loss of 8 yards to the NflkS 46Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
94.0%
Dylan Shaddix punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7MISSED FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:1494% → 93%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
93.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
93.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
93.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+4
93.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
93.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 27 yds to the NflkS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
93.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+19
93.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 19 yds to the NflkS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
93.5%
Joe Licata run for 4 yds to the NflkS 6Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.5%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the NflkS 6Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Brandon WalkerSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 0
OPP 6
+23
93.0%
Patrick Clarke 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 8DOWNS
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.9%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
92.9%
Brendon Riddick run for 3 yds to the NflkS 23Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Brendon Riddick run for no gain to the NflkS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5193% → 95%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
93.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the NflkS 11Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+5
93.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the NflkS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the NflkS 3Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Grassman failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Aaron Daniels run for no gain to the NflkS 25Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
94.3%
Terrance Ervin sacked by Max Perisse for a loss of 11 yards to the NflkS 14Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-5
94.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY NSU false start (OLADIMEJI,D.) 5 yards to the NSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+2
94.6%
Terrance Ervin run for 2 yds to the NflkS 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
94.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-7
94.9%
Joe Licata sacked by Lynden Trail for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+9
94.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the NflkS 49Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
94.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
94.3%
Aaron Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the NflkS 3Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 13
OWN 3
-2
94.3%
Aaron Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the NflkS 1Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 15
OWN 1
+1
94.4%
Terrance Ervin run for 1 yd to the NflkS 2Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 14
OWN 2
0
94.4%
Dylan Shaddix punt for 28 yds, downed at the NflkS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
10 plays · 8 yds · 2:3995% → 96%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
95.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Keenan LambertSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
94.9%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the NflkS 30Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+9
94.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 9 yds to the NflkS 21Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
94.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the NflkS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob Martinez, broken up by Leroy ParkerSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
95.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-3
94.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for a loss of 3 yards to the NflkS 22Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
95.5%
Patrick Clarke 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NflkS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 15FUMBLE
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:056% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to Damian SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.1%
Aaron Daniels run for 1 yd to the NflkS 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
94.2%
Terrance Ervin run for 17 yds to the NflkS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
93.7%
Aaron Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the NflkS 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
93.9%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to Damian SmithSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+6
93.7%
Terrance Ervin run for 6 yds to the NflkS 49 Terrance Ervin fumbled, forced by Adam Redden, recovered by Buff Jarrett FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
94.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cortney Lester) to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
94.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 6 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
94.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the NflkS 47Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
94.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the NflkS 43Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
94.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
93.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 32 yds , Tanner Fiano returns for no gain to the NflkS 8 Tanner Fiano fumbled, recovered by NflkS N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:236% → 5%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
94.0%
Aaron Daniels run for 4 yds to the NflkS 12Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+3
93.9%
Aaron Daniels run for 3 yds to the NflkS 15Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+2
94.8%
Terry Polk run for 2 yds to the NflkS 17Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+27
94.8%
Dylan Shaddix punt for 34 yds , Marcus McGill returns for 27 yds to the NflkS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:2596% → 99%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
95.6%
[PSTL], LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron, PENALTY NSU pass interference (MARROW,Darrin) 15 yards to the NSU9, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
95.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the NflkS 2Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the NflkS 1Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Joe Licata run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Grassman failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Aaron Daniels run for 5 yds to the NflkS 30Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
98.1%
Terry Polk run for 11 yds to the NflkS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
98.1%
Terry Polk run for a loss of 1 yard to the NflkS 40Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-5
98.1%
[SGUN], PENALTY NSU false start (MYLER,Justin) 5 yards to the NSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 16
OWN 35
-8
98.2%
Terrance Ervin sacked by Lee Skinner for a loss of 8 yards to the NflkS 27Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 24
OWN 27
+6
98.2%
Terry Polk run for 6 yds to the NflkS 33Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
98.2%
Dylan Shaddix punt for 44 yds, downed at the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
98.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
98.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Zach Nicholas for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
98.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 53 yds, downed at the NflkS 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
98.8%
Brendon Riddick run for no gain to the NflkS 5Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+1
98.8%
Brendon Riddick run for 1 yd to the NflkS 6Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+2
98.8%
Brendon Riddick run for 2 yds to the NflkS 8Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 7
OWN 8
0
99.0%
Dylan Shaddix punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus McGill at the NflkS 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:15100% → 99%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the NflkS 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
99.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
99.4%
Tyler Grassman punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
99.0%
Brendon Riddick run for 3 yds to the NflkS 13Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+11
99.0%
Terrance Ervin pass complete to Isaac White for 11 yds to the NflkS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
98.9%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to Damian SmithSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.0%
Terrance Ervin run for 3 yds to the NflkS 27Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+10
99.0%
Dylan Shaddix punt for 69 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for 10 yds to the Buff 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+5
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+16
99.5%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Devon Hughes for 16 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 11 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the BUFFALO 47 for a 1ST down NORFOLK ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Lamonte Clark) to the NflkS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the NflkS 32Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.6%
[PSTL], DANIEL, Tony pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron, PENALTY NSU pass interference (HAYNESWORTH,D.) 15 yards to the NSU17, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.6%
Tony Daniel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 17 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 25FUMBLE
15 plays · 73 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Damian Smith run for 17 yds to the NflkS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to Brendon Riddick, broken up by Tedroy LynchSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Brendon Riddick run for 1 yd to the NflkS 43Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+20
99.9%
Terrance Ervin pass complete to Keith Johnson for 20 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Terrance Ervin pass incomplete to Keith Johnson, broken up by Brandon BerrySimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
100.0%
[SGUN], ERVIN,Terrance pass incomplete to JOHNSON,Keith, PENALTY UB pass interference (ROSS, Boise) 15 yards to the UB22, 1ST DOWN NSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
100.0%
Brendon Riddick run for 3 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
100.0%
Brendon Riddick run for 5 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
Brendon Riddick run for 5 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
100.0%
Shakeem Copeland run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
100.0%
Shakeem Copeland run for 1 yd to the Buff 6Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
100.0%
Terrance Ervin run for 4 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 0
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Terrance Ervin run for no gain to the Buff 2 Terrance Ervin fumbled, forced by Max Perisse, recovered by Buff Dwellie StrigglesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
100.0%
Zach Nicholas run for 5 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+6
100.0%
Zach Nicholas run for 6 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
100.0%
Zach Nicholas run for 5 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-2
99.9%
Zach Nicholas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
100.0%
Collin Michael pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 43 yds, downed at the NflkS 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NORFDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
100.0%
Eric Pittman run for 15 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
100.0%
Eric Pittman run for 4 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-2
100.0%
Eric Pittman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:01
Joe Licata run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Grassman failed )
+3.1
TD · Q2 8:44
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Grassman failed)
+1.8
FG · Q2 0:05
Patrick Clarke 39 yd FG GOOD
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com