Try the model
MUR

Murray State 14 at Western Michigan 45

WMU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:37 · Carson Greifenkamp 41 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense+9.6Score differential+3.3Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:03: Marcus Holliday run for 3 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK) — MUR win probability +1.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:25: Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:41: Jarvion Franklin run for 22 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +3.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:52: Daniel Braverman run for 65 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:48: Jarvion Franklin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 8:03WMU 4th & 1 at MUR 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:16MUR 4th & 4 at WMU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:21WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:17MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:25MUR 4th & 5 at WMU 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:37MUR 4th & 15 at WMU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00MUR 4th & 7 at WMU 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:52MUR 4th & 11 at MUR 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:43WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:20MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:48MUR 4th & 9 at WMU 42, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 14, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:28MUR 4th & 7 at MUR 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:50MUR 4th & 6 at MUR 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:18WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 47, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:10MUR 4th & 9 at MUR 38, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:12WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:03MUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:25WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:41WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:52WMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:48WMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:50WMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:4888% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
88.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
88.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 5 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
88.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
88.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
88.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the MurrS 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
88.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the MurrS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
88.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 24 yds to the MurrS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
88.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 17Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
87.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 2TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 2:0913% → 15%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
87.3%
KD Humphries pass complete to Nevar Griffin for 17 yds to the MurrS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
87.1%
MURRAY ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MurrS 42Similar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
87.3%
KD Humphries pass complete to Marcus Holliday for no gain to the MurrS 42Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+5
87.3%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the MurrS 47Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
87.2%
KD Humphries pass complete to Marcus Holliday for 1 yd to the MurrS 48Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+26
87.3%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 26 yds to the WMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
87.0%
Marcus Holliday run for 5 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-5
87.0%
MURRAY ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WMich 26Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+23
87.0%
KD Humphries pass complete to Nevar Griffin for 23 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.4%
Marcus Holliday run for 3 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
86.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 11 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
86.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+2
86.1%
Dareyon Chance run for 2 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+6
86.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 6 yds to the MurrS 47Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-3
86.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
50
+4
84.3%
Pokey Harris run for 4 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
84.3%
Pokey Harris run for 2 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
84.3%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Nevar Griffin, broken up by D CelsicarSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
84.6%
Zach Bogard punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.5%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Dareyon ChanceSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
84.5%
Dareyon Chance run for 3 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
84.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis, broken up by DeQuinten SpragginsSimilar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
84.1%
J. Schroeder punt for 41 yds, downed at the MurrS 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
83.8%
KD Humphries pass complete to Marcus Holliday for a loss of 5 yards to the MurrS 31Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+14
84.1%
KD Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 14 yds to the MurrS 45Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
83.5%
KD Humphries run for no gain to the MurrS 45Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+49
83.8%
Zach Bogard punt for 49 yds , Daniel Braverman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 6:0784% → 86%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
83.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 9Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 9
-2
83.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 7Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+28
83.2%
Zach Terrell run for 28 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
83.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
83.6%
Zach Terrell run for 6 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
83.6%
Zach Terrell run for 2 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
83.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 19 yds to the MurrS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
84.2%
Dareyon Chance run for 4 yds to the MurrS 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+8
84.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Darius Phillips for 8 yds to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
84.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 14 yds to the MurrS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
84.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the MurrS 7Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.9%
HUMPHRIES, KD pass incomplete to HARNESS, Jeremy, PENALTY WMU pass interference (CELSICAR, D) 14 yards to the MUR39, 1ST DOWN MUR, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
84.4%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 15 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.8%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Janawski DavisSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-3
83.9%
KD Humphries run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+8
84.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Pokey Harris for 8 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
84.5%
Zach Bogard punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Daniel Braverman at the WMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:5985% → 90%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
85.0%
Dareyon Chance run for 6 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
85.1%
Dareyon Chance run for 5 yds to the WMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
85.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+12
85.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 12 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
85.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 23 yds to the WESTMICH 35 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.2%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick RobertsSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
86.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the MurrS 32Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+10
85.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 10 yds to the MurrS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.2%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
89.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 22 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 3:0411% → 11%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
88.9%
Marcus Holliday run for 3 yds to the MurrS 25Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-1
88.8%
KD Humphries run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 24Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+13
89.1%
KD Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 13 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.7%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Janawski DavisSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.7%
KD Humphries pass complete to Marcus Holliday for 3 yds to the MurrS 40Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
88.7%
Marcus Holliday run for 13 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
88.2%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 16 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
87.7%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 12 yds to the WMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
86.8%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy Harness, broken up by D CelsicarSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
87.1%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Janawski Davis, broken up by Ronald ZamortSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
87.7%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Nevar Griffin, broken up by Trevor IshmaelSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 10
OPP 19
-5
88.4%
MURRAY ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the WMich 24Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
88.8%
Carson Greifenkamp 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 1:3789% → 91%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
89.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Dareyon ChanceSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
89.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+11
88.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 11 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
89.7%
Zach Terrell run for 8 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+11
89.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 11 yds to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
89.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 18 yds to the MurrS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
90.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 17 yds to the MurrS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.4%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.2%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
90.9%
Andrew Haldeman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.5%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MurrS 36Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+19
90.9%
Pokey Harris run for 19 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
90.8%
KD Humphries run for 13 yds to the WMich 32 MURRAY ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WMich 42Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
90.8%
Pokey Harris run for 3 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
90.8%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy HarnessSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
91.0%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for no gain to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+2
91.5%
Pokey Harris run for 2 yds to the WMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13INT TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 3:2192% → 88%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
92.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
92.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+10
92.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 10 yds to the MurrS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
92.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+2
92.4%
Dareyon Chance run for 2 yds to the MurrS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+71
88.3%
Zach Terrell pass intercepted for a TD T-Ray Malone return for 71 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:0587% → 95%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
87.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+6
87.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
94.6%
Daniel Braverman run for 65 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Marcus Holliday run for no gain to the MurrS 25Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.3%
Marcus Holliday run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 24Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
93.4%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Marcus HollidaySimilar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
93.4%
Zach Bogard punt for 43 yds, downed at the WMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.8%
Dareyon Chance run for 4 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
94.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 1 yd to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
94.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis, broken up by Cedric JonesSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+3
94.4%
J. Schroeder punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MurrS 16 , Janawski Davis returns for 3 yds to the MurrS 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
94.2%
HUMPHRIES, KD pass incomplete to RICE, Paul, PENALTY WMU holding (ZAMORT, Ronald) 10 yards to the MUR26, 1ST DOWN MUR, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.2%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
94.3%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Janawski Davis, broken up by Ronald ZamortSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+6
94.3%
KD Humphries run for 6 yds to the MurrS 32Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
94.2%
Zach Bogard punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2595% → 99%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
95.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the MurrS 49Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+14
95.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 14 yds to the MurrS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
95.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 37Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+8
95.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+16
95.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 16 yds to the MurrS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.2%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Jesse Blackburn, broken up by Devon BrantSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
98.2%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Nevar GriffinSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+34
98.3%
KD Humphries pass complete to Marcus Holliday for 34 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
98.1%
Pokey Harris run for 3 yds to the MurrS 40 MURRAY ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 17
50
+8
98.1%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jesse Blackburn for 8 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
98.1%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to DeQavius Walker, broken up by D CelsicarSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
98.1%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Jesse Blackburn, broken up by Rontavious AtkinsSimilar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
98.1%
Zach Bogard punt for 30 yds, downed at the WMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 14 Jarvion Franklin fumbled, forced by Perry Cooper, recovered by WMich James KristofSimilar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 8
OWN 0
-4
99.1%
PENALTY WMU personal foul (BEAVERS, Willie) 7 yards to the WMU7, PENALTY WMU personal foul (DAVIS, Corey) 4 yards to the WMU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 3
+7
99.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+4
99.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 14Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
99.1%
J. Schroeder punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MurrS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
98.6%
MURRAY STATE drive start at 13:28, PENALTY MUR personal foul (MALONE, T-Ray) 15 yards to the MUR19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
98.7%
Pokey Harris run for 14 yds to the MurrS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
98.6%
Pokey Harris run for 5 yds to the MurrS 38Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-2
98.6%
Pokey Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 36Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
98.6%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy Harness, broken up by Rontavious AtkinsSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Zach Bogard punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Daniel Braverman at the WMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 5:2399% → 100%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 9 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+7
99.3%
Dareyon Chance run for 7 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.4%
Dareyon Chance run for 5 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+11
99.4%
Dareyon Chance run for 11 yds to the MurrS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.4%
Dareyon Chance run for 4 yds to the MurrS 41Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+14
99.4%
Dareyon Chance run for 14 yds to the MurrS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
99.4%
Dareyon Chance run for 22 yds to the MurrS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.4%
Dareyon Chance run for 1 yd to the MurrS 4Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Zach Terrell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
CJ Bennett run for 2 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
99.9%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Jordan Brown, broken up by Devon BrantSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Nick Taylor for 2 yds to the MurrS 31Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Zach Bogard punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for 7 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for 2 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-1
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
J. Schroeder punt for 44 yds , Janawski Davis returns for 1 yd to the MurrS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
99.9%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Mitch Stults for 14 yds to the MurrS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
99.9%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Jordan Brown for 13 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Nick Taylor run for 2 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
CJ Bennett run for 4 yds to the MurrS 43Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-5
99.9%
CJ Bennett run for a loss of 5 yards to the MurrS 38 CJ Bennett fumbled, recovered by MurrS CJ BennettSimilar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Zach Bogard punt for 42 yds, downed at the WMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:52
Daniel Braverman run for 65 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 4:41
Jarvion Franklin run for 22 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q3 1:48
Jarvion Franklin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com