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BALL

Ball State 23 at Toledo 34

TOL
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:55 · Nick Ellis punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+13.2Home team on offense+11.2Garbage-time factor+5.2Score differential+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:16: Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +5.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:28: Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 26 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +8.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:58: Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 43 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +7.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:19: Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +7.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:55: Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +6.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 13:20BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 28, down 6
    Close callPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:20BALL 4th & 2 at TOL 32, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:10BALL 4th & 19 at TOL 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.9
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:54BALL 4th & 8 at TOL 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:49TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:54BALL 4th & 4 at TOL 17, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:55BALL 4th & 6 at TOL 44, down 11
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55TOL 4th & 1 at BALL 46, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:10BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:42TOL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:48BALL 4th & 5 at TOL 23, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:15TOL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:16TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:28TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:58BALL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:19TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:55BALL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3677% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
77.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 34 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
77.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+1
77.2%
Marc Remy run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+35
77.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 35 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.4%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
77.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
77.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 5 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
77.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
77.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
77.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
77.2%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+31
77.2%
Scott Secor punt for 63 yds , Corey Jones returns for 31 yds to the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:1277% → 81%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
77.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
77.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+31
77.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 31 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
77.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
77.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 5 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+4
77.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
77.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
80.5%
Logan Woodside run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:5021% → 23%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
79.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
79.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 5 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
78.9%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 4 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
79.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 17 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
78.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris Shillings, broken up by Chaz WhittakerSimilar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
78.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
78.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+49
77.2%
Scott Secor 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:5978% → 84%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
78.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
78.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 17 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
78.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-3
78.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 12
50
+14
78.2%
Logan Woodside run for 14 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
78.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin Olack, broken up by Martez HesterSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
78.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+15
78.6%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JONES, Corey, PENALTY BSU pass interference (HESTER, Martez) 15 yards to the BSU13, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
84.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:0017% → 18%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
82.6%
MANN, Ozzie pass incomplete to MABON, KeVonn, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (MATHIS, Trevon) 6 yards to the BSU45, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
82.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 11 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
82.2%
Horactio Banks run for 1 yd to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
82.2%
Horactio Banks run for 6 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+18
83.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 18 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
82.8%
Horactio Banks run for 5 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
82.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Chris DukesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-5
83.2%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Jalen Schlachter) to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-9
83.4%
Ozzie Mann sacked by Trent Voss for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 19
OPP 28
+45
81.9%
Scott Secor 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
82.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+7
82.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
82.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+6
82.2%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Dedrick Cromartie return for 6 yds to the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0120% → 21%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
80.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 18 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
80.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 10 yds to the Toled 12 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Williams) to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
80.2%
Horactio Banks run for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
80.2%
Ozzie Mann run for 2 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
80.7%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris Shillings, broken up by Junior SylvestreSimilar
Q2 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+22
79.5%
Scott Secor 22 yd FG GOOD TOLEDO Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
80.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
80.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
80.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Dwight Macon, broken up by Dedrick CromartieSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
79.8%
Nick Ellis punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 6:0320% → 18%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
79.8%
Horactio Banks run for 5 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+12
79.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 12 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
79.0%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
79.2%
Horactio Banks run for 9 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
78.6%
Ozzie Mann run for 1 yd to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
78.7%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 6 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
78.5%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Chris DukesSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
78.9%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 5 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
78.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+1
77.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+3
78.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
77.9%
Horactio Banks run for 1 yd to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+5
77.9%
Horactio Banks run for 5 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
78.6%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Aaron HeppSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
81.6%
Scott Secor 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1783% → 84%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
82.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+43
82.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 43 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
83.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+6
83.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+8
83.6%
Logan Woodside run for 8 yds to the BalSt 17 Logan Woodside fumbled, forced by Blake Dueitt, recovered by BalSt Zack RyanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
82.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
82.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 7 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+15
81.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 15 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
81.3%
Horactio Banks run for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
81.3%
Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
81.5%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
82.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
83.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
83.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
83.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+7
84.6%
Marc Remy run for 7 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
84.7%
Marc Remy run for 6 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
84.7%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
84.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
83.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
84.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 8 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+1
84.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+5
84.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
83.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 13 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
83.5%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
83.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+1
84.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+35
85.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 37 , Corey Jones returns for 35 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:5287% → 96%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
86.9%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
86.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+4
88.1%
Logan Woodside run for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+5
87.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 5 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
96.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 26 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:246% → 14%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
94.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 17 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
94.0%
KeVonn Mabon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+13
94.1%
Horactio Banks run for 13 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
86.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 43 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 6:3489% → 98%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
88.8%
Corey Jones run for 5 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
88.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+13
88.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 13 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
89.6%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
89.5%
Marc Remy run for 5 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
90.3%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
90.6%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
90.6%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-10
90.2%
WOODSIDE, Logan rush for 8 yards to the BSU32 (STLOUIS, G.), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HENDERSHOT, J.) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
50
+16
89.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Marc Remy for 16 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+5
90.0%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
90.8%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 22 Terry Swanson fumbled, forced by Gilbert Stlouis, recovered by ToledSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+1
90.8%
Logan Woodside run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+14
90.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 14 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:243% → 10%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Drake Fletcher) to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.7%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
96.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 11 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Chris DukesSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+11
96.7%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
96.6%
Horactio Banks run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+6
96.1%
Ozzie Mann run for 6 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
96.1%
Ozzie Mann sacked by Tré James for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 16
OPP 34
+11
96.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
96.4%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+7
97.0%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 7 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
96.3%
Ozzie Mann run for 8 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
90.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:1595% → 96%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
94.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
94.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+7
95.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 7 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
95.8%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+6
95.8%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
95.8%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+7
95.8%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
95.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:28
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 26 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q3 1:58
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 43 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q4 10:19
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com