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MASS

Massachusetts 31 at Vanderbilt 34

VAN
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:41 · Brian McDonald punt for 25 yds, downed at the UMass 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Pregame prior+14.8Home team on offense−14.7Score differential−7.8Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:50: Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK) — MASS win probability +8.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:07: Patton Robinette pass complete to Steven Scheu for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +11.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 10:50: Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK) — MASS win probability +17.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:57: Stephen Weatherly 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — VAN win probability +17.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:08: Ralph Webb run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Patton Robinette pass to C.J. Duncan GOOD) — VAN win probability +62.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:19MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 47, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 20, up 14
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:43MASS 4th & 2 at VAN 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:42VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:42VAN 4th & 10 at MASS 38, down 11
    Close callPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:41MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−2.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:24VAN 4th & 9 at MASS 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 7 at VAN 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:41VAN 4th & 19 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−2.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:57MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:57MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:00VAN 4th & 12 at MASS 37, down 5
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%−1.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−3.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:25MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−6.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:02MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:56MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:19MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:02VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:50MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:07VAN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:50MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:57VAN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:08VAN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.0%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
86.0%
Wade Freebeck pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 3 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-3
86.0%
Wade Freebeck sacked by Joe Colton for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
86.0%
Colby Cooke punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:5015% → 18%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
85.4%
Marken Michel run for 5 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+10
85.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 10 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
85.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
50
+5
85.2%
Jamal Wilson run for 5 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
85.2%
Blake Frohnapfel run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 47 Blake Frohnapfel fumbled, recovered by UMass Blake Frohnapfel , return for 4 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+9
85.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
85.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+13
85.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 13 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+10
85.2%
Jamal Wilson run for 10 yds to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
85.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside (N/A) to the Vandy 14Similar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+1
85.2%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd to the Vandy 13Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
85.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
81.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0082% → 83%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.3%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
82.4%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
82.7%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
82.7%
Wade Freebeck pass intercepted Trey Dudley-Giles return for 2 yds to the UMass 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:4619% → 23%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
80.6%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Jonathan Wynn for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+2
81.1%
Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+11
81.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 11 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+53
76.7%
Brian McDonald pass complete to Rodney Mills for 53 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
77.8%
Ralph Webb rush for 5 yards to the VANDY40 (Ngobidi, P.;Messiah, K.), PENALTY VANDY illegal formation 5 yards to the VANDY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+10
77.6%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
78.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 41Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-2
78.1%
Wade Freebeck run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
77.7%
Colby Cooke punt for 49 yds, downed at the UMass 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2726% → 28%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
73.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 5 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+2
73.6%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+1
73.9%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 1 yd to the UMass 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
72.4%
Brian McDonald punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:5074% → 76%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
73.8%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
73.8%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Kris Kentera for 5 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
73.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
73.8%
Jerron Seymour run for 2 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+10
73.7%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Chandler Dorrell for 10 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
74.1%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+11
74.1%
Patton Robinette run for 11 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
74.1%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the UMass 1Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.6%
Patton Robinette run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Rivers KICK), (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8FG
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0729% → 30%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
70.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-1
70.6%
Lorenzo Woodley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
70.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
70.5%
Blake Lucas 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
69.6%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Steven Scheu for 6 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-1
70.1%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
69.2%
Patton Robinette pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
69.0%
Colby Cooke punt for 51 yds , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for no gain to the UMass 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -14 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
74.0%
Adam Butler 0 Yd Fumble Return Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:5626% → 41%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
73.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 12 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
73.1%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 3 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
72.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
72.2%
Elgin Long run for 7 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+10
71.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 10 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
71.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
71.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+35
72.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Lorenzo Woodley for 35 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.3%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12TD
17 plays · 68 yds · 3:3760% → 73%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
60.3%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+3
60.4%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
60.6%
Patton Robinette run for 6 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
59.3%
[SH], P. Robinette rush for 8 yards to the UMASS48 (Bailey-Smith,K.), PENALTY VANDY holding off-setting, PENALTY UMASS personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
61.4%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+10
62.3%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Steven Scheu for 10 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
62.3%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Ralph Webb for 7 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+14
61.8%
Ralph Webb run for 14 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
61.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the UMass 14Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+7
60.6%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 7 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+5
63.1%
P. Robinette pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Porter, J.) 5 yards to the UMASS2, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
61.3%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 3Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.7%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Steven Scheu for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
67.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:0534% → 55%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
66.1%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Caleb Azubike for a loss of 9 yards to the UMass 25 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+6
67.2%
Jordan Broadnax run for 6 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+22
68.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Brandon Howard for 22 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
64.4%
Jordan Broadnax run for no gain to the Vandy 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
64.5%
Jordan Broadnax run for 8 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+6
64.5%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 6 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
63.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 3 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
63.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+15
64.9%
[SH], Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Sharpe, T., PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Ryan White) 15 yards to the VANDY15, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
63.4%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Williams, J., QB hurry by S.Weatherly, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Tre Bell) 11 yards to the VANDY4, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
63.4%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the Vandy 2Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.5%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.3%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
47.6%
Patton Robinette pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 20 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
49.8%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+7
50.5%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.5%
Patton Robinette pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
50.3%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Trey Wilkins for no gain to the UMass 38Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
49.2%
Patton Robinette run for no gain to the UMass 38Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
47.1%
Colby Cooke punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.1%
Blake Frohnapfel run for no gain to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
41.3%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 3 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
41.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Alex KenneySimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
42.6%
Brian McDonald punt for 25 yds, downed at the UMass 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.4%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
43.0%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+2
41.3%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Ralph Webb for 2 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
39.7%
Colby Cooke punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 3:1064% → 71%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
36.1%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
36.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+10
37.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 10 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
35.9%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 5 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+10
35.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 10 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
34.6%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 5 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
33.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Tre BellSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-5
33.8%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Jean Sifrin) to the UMass 37Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+12
35.6%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 12 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
26.6%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 3 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
26.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
26.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
29.1%
Brian McDonald punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:3728% → 20%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
28.1%
Jerron Seymour run for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
28.0%
Patton Robinette pass incomplete to Steven Scheu, broken up by Robert KitchingSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
26.6%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 13 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
29.4%
Jerron Seymour run for 5 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
30.6%
Jerron Seymour run for 2 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+18
29.8%
Patton Robinette run for 18 yds to the UMass 41 Patton Robinette fumbled, forced by Trey Dudley-Giles, recovered by Vandy Latevius Rayford for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
32.4%
Patton Robinette run for 1 yd to the UMass 40 VANDERBILT Penalty, illegal forward pass (Patton Robinette) to the UMass 45Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
30.6%
Patton Robinette pass incomplete to Caleb Scott, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
29.0%
Patton Robinette pass incomplete to Chandler Dorrell, broken up by Jackson PorterSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 14
OPP 45
-5
20.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (C.J. Duncan) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 19
50
0
20.4%
Colby Cooke punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3682% → 64%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.5%
Lorenzo Woodley run for no gain to the UMass 20Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
18.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 6 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
18.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, broken up by Oren BurksSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+11
35.7%
Stephen Weatherly 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
33.2%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 5 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
33.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+16
35.7%
Brian McDonald punt for 36 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 16 yds to the UMass 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:1645% → 27%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
45.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
44.9%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
44.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
47.4%
Jerron Seymour run for 3 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
47.3%
Patton Robinette pass incomplete to Nathan Marcus, broken up by Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
44.5%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Trey Wilkins for 6 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-11
30.8%
P. Robinette rush for 3 yards to the UMASS23, PENALTY VANDY holding (Joe Townsend) 11 yards to the UMASS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+9
27.1%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Trey Wilkins for 9 yds to the UMass 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0081% → 77%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
19.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 3 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
19.0%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 1 yd to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-7
20.3%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Caleb Azubike for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 25Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+8
23.2%
Brian McDonald punt for 36 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 8 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:5427% → 92%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
26.9%
Patton Robinette pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 13 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
29.3%
Patton Robinette pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 36 yds TEAM fumbled, recovered by Vandy N/A for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.2%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Patton Robinette pass to C.J. Duncan GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25MISSED FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 1:0029% → 35%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
72.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Alex Kenney, broken up by Torren McGaster MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+6
74.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Lorenzo Woodley for 6 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+19
73.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 19 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
66.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+16
67.5%
Elgin Long run for 16 yds to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
63.7%
[SH], Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Sharpe, T., PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Tre Bell) 15 yards to the VANDY4, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
63.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 5Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
68.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 0
OPP 5
+22
65.5%
Blake Lucas 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:08
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Patton Robinette pass to C.J. Duncan GOOD)
+62.8
TD · Q3 10:50
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q4 8:57
Stephen Weatherly 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com