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NIU

Northern Illinois 48 at UNLV 34

UNLV
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:19 · Logan Yunker punt for 41 yds, downed at the NoIll 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior−27.9Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:29: Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK) — NIU win probability +9.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:40: Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK) — UNLV win probability +12.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:11: Tyler Wedel 33 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +8.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:18: Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Blake Decker pass to Devante Davis GOOD) — UNLV win probability +37.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:23: Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 54 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK) — NIU win probability +26.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 12:12UNLV 4th & 8 at NIU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:19UNLV 4th & 4 at NIU 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:36UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 41, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 41, up 2
    Close callPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:51UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:01UNLV 4th & 4 at NIU 16, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:06NIU 4th & 3 at UNLV 28, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:40UNLV 4th & 2 at NIU 2, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:35NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 38, up 5
    Close callPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:38UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:11NIU 4th & 9 at UNLV 16, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−13.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:51UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 26, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:26NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:24NIU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:29NIU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:59NIU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:07UNLV Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:44UNLV Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:40UNLV Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:18UNLV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:23NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:56NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:4820% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
19.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
19.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 9 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
19.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+31
19.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 31 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
19.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
19.5%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
19.5%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q1 12:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
21.2%
Jonathan Leiva 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:4079% → 78%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
21.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Akeem Daniels for 8 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+5
21.0%
Chad Beebe run for 5 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
21.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
21.0%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 4 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
21.0%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
21.0%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
21.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 6 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
21.0%
Da'Ron Brown run for 2 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
21.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+21
21.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 21 yds Chad Beebe fumbled, forced by Peni Vea, recovered by NoIll N/A for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
20.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
20.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+9
20.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 9 yds to the UNLV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
20.9%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
22.4%
UNLV Penalty, false start (N/A) to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+1
22.3%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+27
22.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 12 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Paris Logan) to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
23.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 7 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-1
23.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
22.9%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
22.6%
Logan Yunker punt for 41 yds, downed at the NoIll 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0777% → 76%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
23.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
24.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the NoIll 0 for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
24.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 11 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
24.4%
Blake Decker run for 6 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
24.9%
George Naufahu run for 1 yd to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-4
24.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to George Naufahu for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
23.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:2075% → 74%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
25.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 6 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+3
24.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
25.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
24.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
24.9%
Akeem Daniels run for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+14
25.2%
Drew Hare run for 14 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
24.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
25.0%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-2
25.1%
Keith Harris Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
26.1%
Tyler Wedel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
27.0%
Kendal Keys run for 12 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
27.2%
Blake Decker sacked by Perez Ford for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 27 UNLV Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+5
26.9%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+14
26.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 14 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
28.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante DavisSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
27.7%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-4
27.9%
Blake Decker sacked by Jason Meehan for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
26.4%
Logan Yunker punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:1172% → 79%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
28.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
28.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+12
28.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 12 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
27.2%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 11 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
26.7%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 8 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+6
26.4%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
26.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+7
26.0%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
26.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Ezra Saffold, broken up by Mike HorseySimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
26.2%
Ezra Saffold run for 5 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+5
26.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
26.0%
Aregeros Turner run for no gain to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
26.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
21.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Keith Harris Jr. for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:1822% → 23%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
22.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
22.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Dechane DuranteSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+25
21.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 11 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
23.8%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
23.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+23
23.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 23 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
24.6%
DECKER, Blake pass complete to WILLIAMS, A. for 17 yards to the NIU5 (DURANTE, Dechan), PENALTY LV holding (OBERG, Andrew) 10 yards to the NIU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 20
OPP 32
0
24.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for no gain to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+16
23.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 16 yds Shaquille Murray-Lawrence fumbled, forced by Rasheen Lemon, recovered by UNLVSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
23.5%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
22.6%
Jonathan Leiva 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:3278% → 90%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
21.9%
Da'Ron Brown run for 5 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
21.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 8 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
20.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 11 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
20.3%
Keith Harris Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+26
20.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 26 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
19.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
20.0%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+14
19.8%
Drew Hare run for 14 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
19.4%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
10.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:1916% → 16%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
15.9%
Blake Decker run for 5 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
16.6%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+6
16.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to Taylor Barnhill for 6 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
16.2%
Blake Decker pass complete to Shaquille Murray-Lawrence for 29 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0187% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
13.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 16 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
12.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 6 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+8
12.5%
Cameron Stingily run for 8 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
12.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
12.3%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+7
12.5%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
12.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 16 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
12.1%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
12.1%
Keith Harris Jr. run for no gain to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
5.3%
Drew Hare run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:529% → 16%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
8.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 17 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
9.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
9.2%
Kendal Keys run for 7 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+8
9.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 8 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
9.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 17 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
15.6%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 26 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:0189% → 94%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
11.5%
Da'Ron Brown run for 19 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
10.7%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
10.7%
Aregeros Turner run for 3 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+10
10.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
10.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
10.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-2
10.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
6.4%
Tyler Wedel 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 2:1610% → 18%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
9.6%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+3
9.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 13
-7
9.8%
DECKER, Blake pass complete to DAVIS, Devante for 7 yards to the LV20 (SMALLS, Albert), PENALTY LV pass interference (DAVIS, Devante) 7 yards to the LV6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
9.4%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devante Davis, broken up by Albert SmallsSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+15
9.4%
YUNKER, Logan punt 43 yards to the LV49, fair catch by BEEBE, Chad, PENALTY NIU personal foul (MAXWELL, Desroy) 15 yards to the LV21, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
9.8%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 16 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
10.3%
DECKER, Blake pass incomplete to BOYD, Devonte, PENALTY NIU holding (BROOKS, Anthony) 10 yards to the LV47, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
18.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devante Davis for 53 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
15.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+10
15.4%
Drew Hare run for 10 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
15.4%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 10 Drew Hare fumbled, recovered by UNLV Jordan Sparkman , return for 6 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:2020% → 31%
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
19.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 4 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
19.7%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 3 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
18.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the NoIll 2Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.9%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
26.5%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
26.5%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 4 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
25.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
27.9%
Tyler Wedel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
29.9%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+8
29.7%
Keith Whitely run for 8 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-5
31.2%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Blake Decker) to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+2
29.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
28.2%
Logan Yunker punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:4974% → 84%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
26.2%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+19
26.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 19 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
23.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Luke Eakes for 16 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
23.3%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 7 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+18
21.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 18 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
21.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+1
21.9%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-5
23.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Luke Eakes) to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+3
24.0%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
15.8%
Tyler Wedel 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5318% → 58%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.2%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Taylor BarnhillSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.0%
Blake Decker run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
17.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 18 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
20.7%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
19.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 6
50
+41
20.7%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 41 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Blake Decker pass to Devante Davis GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:5555% → 84%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
44.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Keith Harris Jr. for 9 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
41.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
42.0%
Keith Harris Jr. run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
15.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 54 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23INT
10 plays · 68 yds · 0:0023% → 29%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.5%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
22.5%
Blake Decker pass complete to Maika Mataele for 5 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
22.2%
Blake Decker run for 10 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
25.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Kendal Keys, broken up by Anthony BrooksSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
24.0%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
27.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Keith Whitely for 13 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
29.3%
Blake Decker sacked by William Lee for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (William Lee) to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
29.4%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 19 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
29.4%
Blake Decker pass intercepted, touchback. Marlon Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:2687% → 98%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
13.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 25 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
11.5%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
11.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 9 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
11.0%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
11.0%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+13
11.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 13 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
10.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 22 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
7.3%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
7.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.8%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
1.1%
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
1.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Shaquille Murray-LawrenceSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
1.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Taylor Barnhill UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
1.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Maika MataeleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-1
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:18
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Blake Decker pass to Devante Davis GOOD)
+37.3
TD · Q4 8:23
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 54 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q3 2:40
Shaquille Murray-Lawrence run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Leiva KICK)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com