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BAY

Baylor 63 at Buffalo 21

BUF
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 12, 2014 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:06 · Spencer Roth punt for 55 yds, downed at the Buff 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Pregame prior−5.5Home team on offense−57.4Score differential−37.7Garbage-time factor−17.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:09: Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 30 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:17: Johnny Jefferson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:31: Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 41 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +1.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:46: Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Peterson KICK) — BAY win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:09: Anthone Taylor run for 41 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:14BAY 4th & 1 at BUF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:20BUF 4th & 11 at BAY 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:19BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:12BAY 4th & 8 at BUF 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:07BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 14, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:28BAY 4th & 2 at BUF 35, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:21BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 22, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:41BAY 4th & 10 at BUF 19, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:50BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 38, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:12BUF 4th & 8 at BAY 44, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:27BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 22, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:31BUF 4th & 4 at BAY 41, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:40BUF 4th & 3 at BAY 35, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:52BAY 4th & 1 at BUF 40, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:06BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 33, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:21BUF 4th & 3 at BAY 37, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:28BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:44BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:15BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:09BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:17BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:31BUF Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:46BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:09BUF Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:08BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:58BAY Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:34BAY Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:24BUF Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
15 plays · 66 yds · 4:2197% → 96%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.5%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+34
3.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 34 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
3.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Shock Linwood for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
3.6%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
3.7%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+5
3.8%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
3.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
3.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+7
4.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Davion Hall for 7 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
4.2%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
4.3%
Bryce Petty run for 3 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.1%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:515% → 5%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
4.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 5 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-2
4.5%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
4.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
4.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 64 yds, downed at the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
2 plays · 91 yds · 0:2895% → 96%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
4.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+89
4.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 89 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:534% → 5%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
4.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
4.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-9
4.6%
Joe Licata sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 16Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
4.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 42 yds, downed at the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:0296% → 95%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
4.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+21
4.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Davion Hall for 21 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
4.6%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
4.6%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+24
4.9%
Shock Linwood run for 24 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:424% → 5%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
4.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 14 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
4.6%
Joe Licata run for 1 yd to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
4.7%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+15
4.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 15 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
4.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
4.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-2
4.9%
Joe Licata sacked by Jamal Palmer for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
4.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 29 yds, downed at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 2:0295% → 97%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
5.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 7 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+8
5.1%
Bryce Petty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
5.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 16 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
5.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 12 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
5.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
5.1%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
5.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (KD Cannon) to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-5
5.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Blake Muir) to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 20
OPP 42
-9
5.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre'Von Armstead) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 29
OWN 49
0
5.1%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Okezie AlozieSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 29
OWN 49
+21
5.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 21 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+30
3.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 30 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:383% → 2%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
2.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
2.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+12
2.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to John Dunmore for 12 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
2.7%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
2.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (John Dunmore) to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+7
2.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 7 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
2.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
2.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 35 yds, downed at the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0197% → 97%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
3.1%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
3.1%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
3.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
50
0
3.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Lynx HawthorneSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
50
+2
3.0%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
3.2%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
3.4%
Spencer Roth punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Marcus McGill at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.0%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
1.9%
Licata, Joe rush for 2 yards to the BUFFALO22, PENALTY BUFFALO holding (Kling, John) 10 yards to the BUFFALO10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-5
1.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (Brandon Manosalvas) to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 25
OWN 5
+9
1.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to John Dunmore for 9 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
1.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devin Campbell, broken up by Aiavion EdwardsSimilar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
1.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 44 yds , Cal Spangler returns for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:4197% → 98%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
3.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+12
3.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 12 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
3.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
3.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+3
3.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+21
3.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 21 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
1.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:491% → 1%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
1.2%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
1.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
1.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
1.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cal Spangler at the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:3498% → 98%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
1.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 38 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
1.6%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
1.7%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Lynx HawthorneSimilar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
1.7%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Lynx HawthorneSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+35
2.2%
Chris Callahan 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:421% → 1%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
0.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
1.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 10 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
0.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 9 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
0.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-5
0.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (John Dunmore) to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
0.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by Bryce HagerSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+1
0.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 40 yds , Cal Spangler returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
1.2%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-1
1.2%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+21
1.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 6 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Roughing Passer (Andrew Billings) to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
1.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+1
1.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
1.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
1.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
1.0%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
1.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay Lee, broken up by Dwellie StrigglesSimilar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
1.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Dwellie StrigglesSimilar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
1.1%
Spencer Roth punt for 36 yds, downed at the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:501% → 2%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
0.9%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+8
0.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
0.9%
Johnson, Jordan rush for 3 yards to the BAYLOR49, PENALTY BAYLOR offside (Magee, Javonte) 5 yards to the BAYLOR47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.9%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
0.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 6 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
0.8%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+41
2.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 41 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
1.5%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+18
1.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 18 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
1.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 10 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
1.2%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+7
1.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 7 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
1.1%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
0.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Peterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:171% → 2%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+35
0.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 35 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
2.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 41 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:3799% → 100%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
1.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 8 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+22
1.0%
Shock Linwood run for 22 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
1.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 9 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
0.9%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
1.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 3 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
0.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Peterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:181% → 0%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
0.6%
Joe Licata sacked by Beau Blackshear for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
0.5%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+17
0.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 17 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
0.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
0.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
0.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
0.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-2
0.3%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
0.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
0.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+13
0.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 13 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
0.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
0.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
0.3%
Seth Russell run for 5 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+27
0.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 27 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-18
0.3%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 18 yards to the Buff 31 Seth Russell fumbled, recovered by Bayl Seth RussellSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 28
OPP 31
+31
0.2%
Seth Russell run for 31 yds for a TD, (Kyle Peterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
0.1%
Tony Daniel run for 6 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+8
0.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
0.1%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 37 Anthone Taylor fumbled, recovered by Bayl Brian NanceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
0.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 37 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:590% → 0%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
0.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
0.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+33
0.1%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 33 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
0.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
0.1%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+26
0.1%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 26 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
0.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-15
0.1%
Johnson, Jordan rush for 2 yards to the BAYLOR0, PENALTY BUFFALO illegal block (Davis, Andre) 15 yards to the BAYLOR17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
0.1%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 17 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
0.1%
Silas Nacita run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
0.1%
Chris Johnson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-3
0.1%
Chris Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Spencer Roth punt for 55 yds, downed at the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
0.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+35
0.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 35 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
0.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (Colton Caldwell) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+4
0.1%
Zach Nicholas run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Tony Daniel pass incomplete to Colton CaldwellSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+8
0.0%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 8 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
0.0%
Tony Daniel pass incomplete to John DunmoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.1%
Silas Nacita run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
0.1%
Silas Nacita run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:17
Johnny Jefferson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q2 14:09
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 30 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-1.8
TD · Q3 7:09
Anthone Taylor run for 41 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com