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MIZ

Missouri 49 at Toledo 24

TOL
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:53 · Christian Brinser punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense−42.2Score differential−23.5Pregame prior−3.6Garbage-time factor−8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:43: Maty Mauk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +5.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:12: Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:38: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +7.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:18: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +11.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:21: Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 25 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +10.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:35MIZ 4th & 7 at TOL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:51TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:36MIZ 4th & 17 at MIZ 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:49TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:02MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:57MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:29TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:34TOL 4th & 9 at MIZ 42, down 21
    Close callPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:02TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:56TOL 4th & 19 at TOL 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−1.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 15, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:18TOL 4th & 19 at TOL 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:39TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:58MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 26, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:17TOL 4th & 15 at MIZ 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:18MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:05TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:47MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:43MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:12MIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:53MIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:38TOL Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:18TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:21MIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:35MIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2065% → 64%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
35.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 17 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
35.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+2
36.0%
Maty Mauk run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
36.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
36.4%
Christian Brinser punt for 41 yds, downed at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1737% → 37%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
36.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 1 yd to the Toled 9Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-3
36.7%
Phillip Ely run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 6 Phillip Ely fumbled, forced by Markus Golden, recovered by Toled Phillip ElySimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
36.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 12
OWN 6
0
36.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:5164% → 65%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
36.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+18
36.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 18 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
36.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 9 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
35.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 16 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0836% → 36%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
35.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 8 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
36.1%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+8
35.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Dwight Macon for 8 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
36.0%
Phillip Ely sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+8
35.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 8 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
35.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
35.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0965% → 64%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
35.5%
Maty Mauk run for 9 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
35.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+8
35.4%
Marcus Murphy run for 8 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
35.2%
Maty Mauk run for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
35.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-7
35.6%
Maty Mauk sacked by Chase Murdock for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
36.0%
Christian Brinser punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:2836% → 41%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
36.3%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
36.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+11
35.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 11 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
36.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 6 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+38
40.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 38 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1061% → 66%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
39.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 45 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
38.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
38.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+19
38.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 19 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:4935% → 36%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
35.3%
Phillip Ely run for 18 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
36.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
36.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
36.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alex ZmolikSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
35.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4065% → 65%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
35.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Misso 14Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+26
35.2%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted Jordan Haden return for 26 yds to the Misso 9 Jordan Haden fumbled, forced by Bud Sasser, recovered by Misso Jimmie HuntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2365% → 64%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
35.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-6
35.2%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 6Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 13
OWN 6
0
35.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Lawrence LeeSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
36.2%
Christian Brinser punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2637% → 37%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
37.0%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
37.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+38
36.5%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Aarion Penton return for 38 yds to the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:3967% → 73%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
33.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 24 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
32.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.3%
Maty Mauk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:1229% → 27%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
29.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Dwight MaconSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+24
28.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 24 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
29.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+8
29.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+29
29.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 29 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
29.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Misso 5Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-5
30.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Josh Hendershot) to the Misso 10Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
29.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-17
27.7%
Phillip Ely sacked by Markus Golden for a loss of 17 yards to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 0
OPP 27
+44
27.3%
Jeremiah Detmer 44 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1874% → 75%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
25.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 11 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
24.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-2
24.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
25.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
25.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 44 yds , Corey Jones returns for no gain to the Toled 41 TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Block (Zach Quinn) to the Toled 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:2325% → 25%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+20
24.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 20 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
25.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
24.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alex ZmolikSimilar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+34
24.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 44 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 34 yds to the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:1076% → 85%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
23.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 26 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
14.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:2718% → 18%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
18.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
18.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
18.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+21
17.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 21 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
19.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Corey Jones) to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+4
18.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
18.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+2
18.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
17.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18END OF HALF
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:0686% → 88%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
14.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 11Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+10
14.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 10 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
13.9%
Maty Mauk run for 7 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-1
13.7%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+6
12.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 6 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
11.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 18 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
11.0%
Maty Mauk run for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-10
11.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mitch Hall) to the Misso 46Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
11.8%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+3
12.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4714% → 14%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
14.3%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
14.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
13.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
13.7%
Michael Julian punt for 65 yds, downed at the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:5788% → 96%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
11.8%
Maty Mauk run for 3 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
11.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
11.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
9.8%
Maty Mauk run for 8 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
8.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
8.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 9 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
8.4%
Marcus Murphy run for 16 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
8.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
8.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 9 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+13
7.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 13 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
7.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
6.8%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie HuntSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
3.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:046% → 11%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
5.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
2.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Dwight Macon for 15 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
2.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 9 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
2.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Dwight MaconSimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+45
2.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 45 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0694% → 96%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
6.1%
Maty Mauk sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
4.5%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted Chris Dukes return for no gain to the Misso 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:017% → 19%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
6.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (Phillip Ely) to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+21
6.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 21 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
7.5%
Marc Remy run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+25
7.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 25 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4986% → 97%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.9%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
13.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+47
13.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 47 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
3.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 25 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 2:096% → 4%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
5.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
5.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+14
5.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Dwight Macon for 14 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-8
5.4%
Phillip Ely run for 2 yds to the Toled 42 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chase Nelson) to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 18
OWN 48
-9
4.5%
Phillip Ely run for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 27
OWN 39
0
4.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 27
OWN 39
+8
4.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Marc Remy for 8 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 19
OWN 47
0
4.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5597% → 97%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
3.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+6
2.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
2.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 15Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
2.8%
Christian Brinser punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:353% → 2%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
3.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
3.4%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+3
3.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-7
2.8%
Logan Woodside sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 13:18
4TH & 19
OWN 36
0
2.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 29 yds, downed at the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:3598% → 100%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.3%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
2.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 11 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
2.0%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
50
+7
1.7%
Maty Mauk run for 7 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
1.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+15
1.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Connery Swift) to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
1.4%
Maty Mauk run for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+7
1.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 7 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
1.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 2 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
1.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
0.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (Logan Woodside) to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
0.1%
Marc Remy run for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 8 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-4
0.2%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Eddie Printz pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Christian Brinser punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 31FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:240% → 0%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
0.1%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+21
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 21 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
0.1%
Logan Woodside run for 6 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+9
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Zach Rogers for 9 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Zach Rogers for 9 yds Zach Rogers fumbled, recovered by Toled Zach RogersSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+4
0.1%
Logan Woodside run for 4 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
0.1%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 20 Logan Woodside fumbled, recovered by Toled Logan WoodsideSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 12
OPP 20
-3
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+40
0.1%
Jeremiah Detmer 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
0.1%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
0.1%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:18
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q3 4:21
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 25 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q2 6:12
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
-8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com