2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreEKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:15 · Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 30 yds , Fred McRae returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 15 Fred McRae fumbled, recovered by EKent Chris Owens
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 3:53: Andrew Hendrix pass intercepted for a TD Stanley Absanon return for 55 yds for a TD, (Andrew Lloyd KICK) — EKU win probability +16.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:57: Bennie Coney run for no gain to the MiaOh 48 — EKU win probability +16.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:20: Dy'Shawn Mobley run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 43 — EKU win probability +8.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:43: Jeff Glover pass complete to Deno Montgomery for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew Lloyd KICK) — EKU win probability +33.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28: Timeout MIAMI OH, clock 01:28 — EKU win probability +8.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 11EKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 13:52EKU 4th & 1 at EKU 37, down 7Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snapGo for it40.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:27M-OH 4th & 19 at M-OH 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.4%average punt
- Q1 8:10EKU 4th & 5 at M-OH 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snapGo for it38.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.1%average punt
- Q1 6:35M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 41, up 7Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snapGo for it62.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:15EKU 4th & 5 at M-OH 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snapGo for it37.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q1 2:05EKU 4th & 14 at M-OH 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.0%−0.817% to convertField goalTheir call35.8%77% to makePunt33.2%−2.6average punt
- Q2 15:00M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 30, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it60.4%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.6%average punt
- Q2 14:49EKU 4th & 10 at M-OH 30, down 4Close callWent for it · 38.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.2%−0.329% to convertField goal38.5%56% to makePunt37.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 6:39M-OH 4th & 1 at EKU 4, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snapGo for it63.7%65% to convertField goalTheir call61.8%−1.893% to makePunt57.6%−6.1average punt
- Q3 14:54EKU 4th & 10 at EKU 29, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snapGo for it33.7%−1.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q3 13:14M-OH 4th & 9 at EKU 35, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.1%32% to convertField goal64.0%−0.145% to makePunt63.3%−0.8average punt
- Q3 6:39M-OH 4th & 4 at EKU 5, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snapGo for it69.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call68.7%−0.792% to makePunt59.1%−10.3average punt
- Q3 6:27EKU 4th & 1 at EKU 46, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it29.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%−3.0average punt
- Q3 3:53M-OH 4th & 17 at M-OH 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snapGo for it53.6%−4.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00EKU 4th & 7 at EKU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it41.3%−1.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.8%average punt
- Q4 14:47M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it54.5%−2.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.8%average punt
- Q4 13:12EKU 4th & 3 at midfield, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 48.0% before the snapGo for it49.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%−2.6average punt
- Q4 9:14M-OH 4th & 2 at EKU 20, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snapGo for it60.6%57% to convertField goalTheir call57.5%−3.175% to makePunt38.7%−22.0average punt
- Q4 9:14EKU 4th & 7 at EKU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snapGo for it40.1%−3.935% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.0%average punt
- Q4 7:57EKU 4th & 13 at EKU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it41.3%−5.021% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.3%average punt
- Q4 6:57M-OH 4th & 20 at M-OH 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snapGo for it39.5%−14.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.7%average punt
- Q4 1:28M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.8%17% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.3%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1EKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 14:01M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.9%97% to makeGo for two59.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:53EKU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.9%97% to makeGo for two39.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:43EKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call76.9%−0.797% to makeGo for two77.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5962% → 63%
EKUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
62.5%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Dy'Shawn Mobley for 2 yds to the EKent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT15 plays · 26 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 12:27
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+15
63.0%
HENDRIX, Andrew pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, R., PENALTY EKU pass interference (JOSEPH, Johnny) 15 yards to the MU32, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
63.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 9 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
63.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 3 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
63.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 8 yds to the EKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 14
OPP 47
-5
62.9%
KOCH, Christian punt 40 yards to the EKU7, downed, PENALTY MU illegal formation 5 yards to the MU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 19
OWN 48
0
62.9%
Christian Koch punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 35 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:10
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
63.8%
Bennie Coney pass incomplete to Dy'Shawn Mobley, broken up by Kent KernSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
65.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 14 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
65.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 7 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+6
64.7%
Christian Koch punt for 32 yds , Stanley Absanon returns for 6 yds to the EKent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
65.0%
MONTGOMERY, D. rush over left end for loss of 1 yard to the EKU32 (HARDING, Heath;ALBRIGHT, B.), PENALTY MU personal foul (JONES, J'Terius) 14 yards to the EKU47, 1ST DOWN EKU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
64.8%
Bennie Coney pass incomplete to Dy'Shawn Mobley, broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+6
65.1%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Dy'Shawn Mobley for 6 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 5
OPP 48
-3
65.1%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 30 yds , Fred McRae returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 15 Fred McRae fumbled, recovered by EKent Chris OwensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 7FG4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1936% → 37%
Q1 3:24
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-6
64.5%
Bennie Coney sacked by Joe Donlan for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0563% → 62%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
63.1%
HENDRIX, Andrew pass complete to WILLIAMS, R. for 33 yards to the EKU42, out-of-bounds (JOSEPH, Johnny), PENALTY MU pass interference (WILLIAMS, R.) 12 yards to the MU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+15
62.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 15 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
62.3%
Christian Koch punt for 56 yds , Stanley Absanon returns for 7 yds to the EKent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 9DOWNS10 plays · 56 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
63.4%
Jared McClain pass complete to Jeff Glover for 11 yds to the EKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+26
62.6%
Jared McClain pass complete to Devin Borders for 26 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+7
63.3%
Jared McClain pass complete to Jeff Glover for 7 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10MISSED FG14 plays · 73 yds · 5:3363% → 66%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
63.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 5 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
64.5%
HENDRIX, Andrew pass incomplete to FRAZIER, David, PENALTY EKU pass interference (JOSEPH, Johnny) 15 yards to the EKU39, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
65.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 15 yds to the EKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
65.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 11 yds to the EKent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+21
65.6%
Kaleb Patterson 21 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Devin Borders recovered by Jared Murphy.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 11INT7 plays · 52 yds · 2:0537% → 40%
Q2 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-5
61.2%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Devin Borders) to the EKent 37Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+43
63.4%
Jared McClain pass complete to Channing Fugate for 43 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
59.6%
Jared McClain pass intercepted Quinten Rollins return for no gain to the MiaOh 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12FUMBLE5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0065% → 67%
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+28
64.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 28 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+10
65.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alvonta Jenkins for 10 yds to the EKent 47Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
67.3%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Trey Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 15 Andrew Hendrix fumbled, recovered by EKent Marquise Piton , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the MiaOh 15 Marquise Piton fumbled, forced by Andrew Hendrix, recovered by MiaOh Alex Welch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13INT8 plays · 50 yds · 1:1865% → 68%
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+14
64.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Sam Martin for 14 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
65.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 9 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+24
67.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 24 yds to the EKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
67.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 5 yds to the EKent 33Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+14
68.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass intercepted Brandon Stanley return for 14 yds to the EKent 21 MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 14END OF HALF11 plays · 35 yds · 0:5636% → 33%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.7%
Bennie Coney pass incomplete to Devin Borders, broken up by Jay MastinSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+17
64.4%
Bennie Coney pass complete to JJ Jude for 17 yds to the EKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
61.1%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Ben Madon for 13 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
59.8%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Scott Daniel for 15 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
58.3%
Bennie Coney pass incomplete to Devin Borders, broken up by Marshall TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-10
62.0%
CONEY, Bennie pass incomplete to DANIEL, Scott, PENALTY EKU holding (EYCKMANS, Brett) 10 yards to the MU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 18
OPP 33
-2
67.2%
Bennie Coney sacked by Bryson Albright and J'Terius Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.7%
Bennie Coney pass incomplete to Dan Shepherd, broken up by Kent KernSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+5
66.0%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Dy'Shawn Mobley for 5 yds to the EKent 34Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 5
OWN 34
-5
66.0%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Brandon Stanley) to the EKent 29Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 29
-4
66.8%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 40 yds , Fred McRae returns for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16FG18 plays · 68 yds · 6:3566% → 79%
Q3 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+10
66.9%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Marquise Piton for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Marquise Piton) to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
66.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 7 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+15
67.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Tyrelle Johnson) to the EKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
67.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by Stanley AbsanonSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+12
65.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 12 yds to the EKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
73.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Alex Welch, broken up by Stanley AbsanonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
M-OHDrive 18INT TD4 plays · 19 yds · 1:2079% → 64%
Q3 3:53
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+55
64.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass intercepted for a TD Stanley Absanon return for 55 yds for a TD, (Andrew Lloyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 3:53
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+14
60.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 14 yds to the EKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-7
61.9%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Blake Atzinger for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 17
OWN 44
+1
59.0%
Christian Koch punt for 41 yds , Stanley Absanon returns for 1 yd to the EKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3144% → 41%
M-OHDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0061% → 58%
EKUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
M-OHDrive 23MISSED FG8 plays · 60 yds · 2:3860% → 63%
EKUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q4 9:14
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
55.2%
Jared McClain pass complete to Scott Daniel for 4 yds to the EKent 23Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+26
57.8%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 40 yds, downed at the MIAMIOH 37 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, kick catching interference (Khiry Maddox) to the EKent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25FUMBLE1 play · -3 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
65.0%
Andrew Hendrix run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 48 Andrew Hendrix fumbled, recovered by EKent Jeffrey CanadySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0051% → 44%
M-OHDrive 27PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0059% → 55%
EKUDrive 28TD2 plays · 46 yds · 0:3754% → 87%
M-OHDrive 29INT12 plays · 20 yds · 3:1522% → 13%
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 11 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
23.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 8 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
50
0
26.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Dawan Scott, broken up by Chris OwensSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
50
-2
25.6%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Jeffrey Canady for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 22
OWN 38
+7
21.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 7 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 15
OWN 45
+9
13.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass intercepted Stanley Absanon return for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 30END OF GAME5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0495% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:43
Jeff Glover pass complete to Deno Montgomery for 43 yds for a TD, (Andrew Lloyd KICK)
-33.5
TD · Q3 3:53
Andrew Hendrix pass intercepted for a TD Stanley Absanon return for 55 yds for a TD, (Andrew Lloyd KICK)
-16.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:57
Bennie Coney run for no gain to the MiaOh 48
-16.4