Try the model
COLO

Colorado 41 at Massachusetts 38

MASS
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Gillette Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:00 · Brian McDonald punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior−32.6Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 14 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK) — MASS win probability +12.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:24: Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK) — MASS win probability +20.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:24: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 70 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +17.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:16: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK) — COLO win probability +14.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: Marken Michel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK) — MASS win probability +33.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 10:55COLO 4th & 2 at MASS 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:55MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:33COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:00MASS 4th & 5 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:00COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:59MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:31COLO 4th & 5 at MASS 29, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:17MASS 4th & 20 at MASS 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:11COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:11MASS 4th & 6 at COLO 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−6.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:02MASS 4th & 2 at COLO 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−2.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:24MASS 4th & 16 at MASS 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:26COLO 4th & 14 at COLO 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−3.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:02MASS 4th & 19 at MASS 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−2.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:37COLO 4th & 7 at MASS 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:47COLO 4th & 28 at COLO 18, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 14.1 ptsWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%−14.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 1:15MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:00COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:07MASS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:23COLO Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18MASS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:24MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:02COLO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:24COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:16COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:55MASS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:0588% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
11.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 4 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+25
11.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 25 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
11.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
-2
11.8%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
11.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Michael Adkins II for 6 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
11.8%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
11.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+4
11.8%
Tony Jones run for 4 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+35
13.4%
Will Oliver 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
13.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Alex Kenney for 14 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
13.5%
Jamal Wilson run for 4 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
13.6%
Jamal Wilson run for 4 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
13.6%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
13.5%
Brian McDonald punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
14.4%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Kassan Messiah for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+5
14.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+11
14.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 1 yd to the Colo 21 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, HL (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
14.5%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 15Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
14.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
14.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
14.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
14.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to D.D. GoodsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:4115% → 21%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
15.4%
Jamal Wilson run for 9 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
15.5%
Jamal Wilson run for 5 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
15.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 8 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
15.8%
J.T. Blyden run for 1 yd to the UMass 38Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
15.7%
J.T. Blyden run for 2 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
15.6%
J.T. Blyden run for 8 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+11
15.8%
J.T. Blyden run for 11 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
16.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 14 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
16.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
16.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 13 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
21.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 14 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:1581% → 83%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
19.5%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+12
19.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 12 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
19.0%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
50
+21
19.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 6 yds to the UMASS 44 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Kassan Messiah) to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
19.2%
Tony Jones run for 2 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+8
19.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the UMass 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
17.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 19 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
19.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, broken up by Addison GillamSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
19.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 5
50
0
19.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 5
50
0
19.0%
Brian McDonald punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
18.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
19.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+10
19.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 10 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
18.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
18.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
19.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to D.D. GoodsonSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
19.4%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 62 yds, downed at the UMass 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
20.1%
J.T. Blyden run for no gain to the UMass 4Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
20.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Greg HendersonSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
19.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to J.T. BlydenSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 10
OWN 4
+2
19.3%
Brian McDonald punt for 43 yds , Nelson Spruce returns for 2 yds to the UMass 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3381% → 82%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
19.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
19.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 11 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
18.9%
Michael Adkins II run for 2 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
19.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Michael Adkins II for 3 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
19.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
17.6%
Will Oliver 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:2418% → 31%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
18.4%
Tajae Sharpe run for 5 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
18.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 8 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
19.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 14 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
19.8%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+28
19.8%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 17 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (11 Yards) to the Colo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
30.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 12 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:4473% → 83%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
27.1%
Christian Powell run for 7 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
26.5%
Christian Powell run for 4 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
26.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 22 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
25.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 6 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+14
24.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 14 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
24.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 18 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
23.9%
Christian Powell run for 7 yds to the UMass 7Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
23.9%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the UMass 5Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
17.1%
Tony Jones run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:0620% → 20%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
20.3%
Tajae Sharpe run for 12 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
21.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
21.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jamal WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-15
20.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 9 yards to the COLO40 (Gillam, Addison;Coleman, Timothy), PENALTY UMASS personal foul (Elijah Wilkinson) 15 yards to the UMASS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 25
OWN 36
+5
18.9%
Jamal Wilson run for 5 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
19.9%
Brian McDonald punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
20.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Christian PowellSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
20.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Christian PowellSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
20.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
21.6%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 0:3021% → 34%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
21.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 36 yds Marken Michel fumbled, forced by Tedric Thompson, recovered by UMass Marken Michel for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
24.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 7 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, roughing passer (Derek McCartney) to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
24.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, broken up by Bryce BoboSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
24.7%
Blake Frohnapfel run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 14 Blake Frohnapfel fumbled, recovered by UMass Blake FrohnapfelSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
34.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 14 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
31.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:4935% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
34.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 41 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
37.2%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
37.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, broken up by Tedric ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+1
36.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 1 yd to the Colo 16Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
37.8%
Blake Lucas 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
36.3%
Christian Powell run for 4 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+29
35.6%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Randall Jette return for 29 yds to the Colo 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.9%
Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:2247% → 61%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
52.8%
Jones, Tony rush for 8 yards to the COLO31 (Stanley Andre;Sha-Ki Holines), PENALTY COLO personal foul (Munyer, Daniel) 11 yards to the COLO12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 21
OWN 12
+10
53.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 10 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+1
53.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Tony Jones for 1 yd to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+15
54.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 15 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
51.6%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to McCulloch, Tyler, QB hurry by Sha-Ki Holines, PENALTY COLO HL (Nembot, Stephane) 10 yards to the COLO28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+27
52.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 27 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
50.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Randall Jette COLORADO Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
50.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+25
51.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 15 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, HL (N/A) to the UMass 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
48.2%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
48.2%
Christian Powell run for 3 yds to the UMass 14Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
39.5%
Christian Powell run for 14 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
48.7%
J.T. Blyden run for 2 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
48.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Brandon HowardSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+14
47.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 14 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
49.6%
J.T. Blyden run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+1
48.9%
J.T. Blyden run for 1 yd to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+9
47.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
47.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to J.T. Blyden for 1 yd to the Colo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:3453% → 71%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
46.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
46.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+70
29.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 70 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
30.6%
Jamal Wilson run for 11 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
33.4%
J.T. Blyden run for 2 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
33.4%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 1
50
+2
33.7%
J.T. Blyden run for 2 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
34.6%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Timothy Coleman for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-2
31.2%
J.T. Blyden run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 46Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 16
OWN 46
0
29.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to J.T. BlydenSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
28.2%
Brian McDonald punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:3570% → 88%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
30.1%
Christian Powell run for 11 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
29.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 3 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
29.5%
Tony Jones run for 3 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
29.4%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Spruce, Nelson, PENALTY UMASS offside defense (Kassan Messiah) 5 yards to the COLO41, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
28.0%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Fields, Shay, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Randall Jette) 15 yards to the UMASS44, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
27.3%
Powell, Christian rush for 2 yards to the UMASS42 (Stanley Andre;Jovan Santos-Knox), PENALTY COLO HL (Kelley, Alex) 10 yards to the COLO46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 46
0
29.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for no gain to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 46
-1
29.8%
Christian Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 45
+15
30.8%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Fields, Shay, QB hurry by Da'Sean Downey, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Jesse Monteiro) 15 yards to the UMASS40, 1ST DOWN COLO, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
27.3%
Christian Powell run for no gain to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+33
27.3%
Tony Jones run for 33 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
25.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the UMass 3Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Oliver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
16.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Alex Kenney, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
15.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to J.T. Blyden for no gain to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+1
14.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Tedric Thompson return for 1 yd to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
13.0%
Christian Powell run for 8 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
12.1%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
12.3%
Christian Powell run for 2 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
11.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
12.0%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Sean Irwin) to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+1
12.7%
Tony Jones run for 1 yd to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
13.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Nelson SpruceSimilar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 14
OWN 42
+31
14.1%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 50 yds , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 31 yds to the UMass 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0013% → 10%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
12.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean SifrinSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
12.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-9
11.6%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Addison Gillam and Juda Parker for a loss of 9 yards to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
10.0%
Brian McDonald punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nelson Spruce at the Colo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:3289% → 92%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
11.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 21 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
9.9%
Christian Powell run for 5 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
9.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 10 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
9.7%
Christian Powell run for 4 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-1
9.6%
Tony Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 38Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
8.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
8.4%
Darragh O'Neill punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 28TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:298% → 41%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
7.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jalen Williams, broken up by Greg HendersonSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
9.8%
COLORADO Penalty, roughing passer (John Walker) to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
10.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
10.5%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 2 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+7
10.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 7 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+14
10.4%
COLORADO Penalty, roughing passer (Clay Norgard) to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
12.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jean Sifrin, PENALTY COLO HL (Walker, John) 7 yards to the COLO6, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+29
7.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 29 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.7%
Marken Michel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · -17 yds · 0:0880% → 78%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.2%
Christian Powell run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
19.6%
Christian Powell run for 5 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
18.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 5 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
16.9%
Christian Powell run for no gain to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
17.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 20
OWN 26
-8
20.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 28
OWN 18
-10
22.0%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Jovan Santos-Knox for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:55
Marken Michel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)
+33
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22
TD · Q3 12:24
Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)
+20.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com