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BUF

Buffalo 39 at Army 47

ARMY
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:33 · Tyler Grassman punt for 28 yds, downed at the Army 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginTime remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+4.6Score differential+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin+0.5Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:41: Tony Giovannelli run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:22: Raymond Maples run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +6.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:04: Larry Dixon run for 45 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +9.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:17: Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 20 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +7.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:42: Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 8 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Joe Licata pass to Ron Willoughby GOOD) — BUF win probability +10.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:26BUF 4th & 5 at ARMY 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:26ARMY 4th & 1 at BUF 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:48BUF 4th & 3 at ARMY 18, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:33BUF 4th & 21 at ARMY 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:14ARMY 4th & 9 at BUF 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 3 at ARMY 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−2.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:07ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at BUF 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at BUF 4, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:01BUF 4th & 2 at ARMY 3, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:06ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 47, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:57BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:20ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:41ARMY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:22ARMY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:04ARMY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:17BUF Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:54BUF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:01ARMY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:10ARMY Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:47BUF Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:01BUF Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:42BUF Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
50.3%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Army 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
50.3%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Army 48 Angel Santiago fumbled, forced by Lee Skinner, recovered by Buff Witney SherrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:4450% → 50%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
50.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 10 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
50.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+16
50.3%
Devin Campbell run for 16 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
50.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
50.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Boise Ross for 7 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
50.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
50.3%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 5Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
50.4%
Patrick Clarke 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0651% → 55%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.6%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
50.6%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 22Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-5
50.5%
ARMY Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Army 17Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+4
50.5%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+30
50.3%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Raymond Maples for 30 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
51.1%
Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+3
51.2%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
51.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
51.2%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Kelvin White for 6 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
51.1%
Larry Dixon run for no gain to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
50.9%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
51.3%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+23
54.8%
Larry Dixon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4MISSED FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 4:2546% → 46%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+22
53.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 22 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
53.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
52.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+10
53.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 10 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
52.5%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+10
53.3%
Devin Campbell run for 10 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
52.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
52.4%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Army 40Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
52.4%
ARMY Penalty, personal foul (Geoffery Bacon) to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
51.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Boise RossSimilar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
52.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Boise Ross for 7 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
52.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Boise RossSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
53.6%
Patrick Clarke 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0754% → 65%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
54.4%
Tony Giovannelli run for 18 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
55.1%
Maples, Raymond rush for 10 yards to the ARMY48 (ROBERSON, K.), PENALTY ARMY clipping (Poe, Edgar) 10 yards to the ARMY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 20
OWN 28
-5
54.4%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Terry Baggett) to the Army 23Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+3
54.3%
Terry Baggett run for 3 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 22
OWN 26
+27
54.2%
Terry Baggett run for 27 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
55.9%
Raymond Maples run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
55.9%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+39
56.7%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Raymond Maples for 39 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.3%
Tony Giovannelli run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 30 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
62.1%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+15
62.7%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to ROSS, Boise, PENALTY ARMY personal foul (King, Andrew) 15 yards to the UB44, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
61.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+10
60.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 10 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
60.6%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to ROSS, Boise, PENALTY ARMY offside 5 yards to the ARMY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 5
OPP 34
0
59.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Boise RossSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+5
59.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
59.4%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 30Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-10
59.9%
LICATA, Joe rush for 11 yards to the ARMY19, PENALTY UB holding (BROCK, Boomer) 10 yards to the ARMY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 21
OPP 40
-14
61.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 35
OWN 46
0
62.4%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 35
OWN 46
+14
62.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 14 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 21
OPP 40
0
63.2%
Tyler Grassman punt for 28 yds, downed at the Army 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
15 plays · 40 yds · 4:5167% → 74%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
66.6%
Raymond Maples run for 3 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+12
66.6%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Tony Giovannelli for 12 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
66.9%
Raymond Maples run for 4 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
67.0%
Terry Baggett run for 5 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
66.9%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
68.0%
Raymond Maples run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-5
68.2%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Kelvin White) to the Army 37Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+6
66.9%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Kelvin White for 6 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+8
67.2%
Tony Giovannelli run for 8 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
68.5%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-4
68.4%
Terry Baggett run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 49Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+3
72.8%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Kelvin White for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
74.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 47 yds, downed at the Buff 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
75.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 11 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
74.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+28
74.8%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Chris Carnegie return for 28 yds to the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:1277% → 83%
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
76.9%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
83.3%
Raymond Maples run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
81.6%
Joe Licata run for 6 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
80.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devon Hughes, broken up by Josh JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0018% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
81.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
81.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Boise Ross for 5 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, personal foul (Josh Jenkins) to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
80.6%
Devin Campbell run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
80.6%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive offside (Mike Ugenyi) to the Army 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
79.8%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Army 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
80.5%
Jordan Johnson pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
88.3%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
88.7%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
88.4%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
88.8%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
88.7%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-7
88.4%
Angel Santiago sacked by Tedroy Lynch for a loss of 7 yards to the Army 46Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
87.4%
Alex Tardieu punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus McGill at the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
88.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 11 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
88.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+16
87.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 16 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
87.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Jake Silas) to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+14
88.5%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Josh Jenkins return for 14 yds to the Buff 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
98.0%
Larry Dixon run for 45 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:403% → 11%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
96.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
96.7%
LICATA, Joe pass complete to McGILL, Marcus for 18 yards to the ARMY33 (Glover, Richard), PENALTY UB holding (ROSS, Boise) 5 yards to the UB44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+10
96.3%
Devin Campbell run for 10 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+26
96.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Boise Ross for 11 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, roughing passer (Hayden Pierce) to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
89.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 20 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:4293% → 97%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
93.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+41
97.3%
Terry Baggett run for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:284% → 9%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
96.4%
Devin Campbell run for 2 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
96.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 5 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+6
96.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Boise Ross for 6 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
91.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 65 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5393% → 99%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.5%
ARMY Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Army 20Similar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+57
92.4%
Larry Dixon run for 57 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
93.1%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
93.1%
Raymond Maples run for no gain to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+3
93.0%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+3
93.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
94.1%
Matt Giachinta run for 6 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
94.1%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
93.9%
Matt Giachinta run for no gain to the Buff 4Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+2
93.3%
Terry Baggett run for 2 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
94.1%
Matt Giachinta run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 4Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.6%
Angel Santiago 4 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski PAT blocked), (Daniel Grochowski BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
98.4%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Josh Jenkins return for 1 yd to the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:3399% → 100%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+29
98.7%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Edgar Poe for 29 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cale Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:230% → 2%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 12 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to John Dunmore for 5 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+14
99.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
99.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 14 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devin Campbell, broken up by Andrew KingSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
99.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 15 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 15 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:421% → 5%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
98.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 7 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+13
98.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 13 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
98.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+12
98.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 12 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
98.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 7 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+1
98.6%
Devin Campbell run for 1 yd to the Army 3Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
95.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.2%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-1
97.2%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 33 Angel Santiago fumbled, forced by Ryan Williamson, recovered by Buff Lee SkinnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:213% → 13%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
96.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 18 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
96.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 11 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
96.7%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to HUGHES, Devon, PENALTY UB holding (SILAS, Jake) 10 yards to the ARMY48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+12
96.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 12 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+11
96.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
95.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 3 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+14
95.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 14 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Steven JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 8 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Joe Licata pass to Ron Willoughby GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:3296% → 97%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
96.1%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+2
96.0%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
96.5%
Larry Dixon run for no gain to the Army 47Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
97.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 28 yds, downed at the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
95.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
95.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
97.7%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:42
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 8 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Joe Licata pass to Ron Willoughby GOOD)
-10
TD · Q3 6:04
Larry Dixon run for 45 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 10:41
Tony Giovannelli run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com