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DUQ

Duquesne 28 at Buffalo 38

BUF
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreDUQ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:24 · Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chavas Rawlins for 9 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 190Pregame prior+1.8Home team on offense+25.7Score differential+7.5Garbage-time factor+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.9Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:21: Randy Morris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Crimmins KICK) — DUQ win probability +6.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:04: Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 88 yds for a TD, (Austin Crimmins KICK) — DUQ win probability +9.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Crimmins KICK) — DUQ win probability +26.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:50: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 24 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +22.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:32: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK) — BUF win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9DUQ made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:43DUQ 4th & 7 at DUQ 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23DUQ 4th & 6 at DUQ 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:02DUQ 4th & 21 at DUQ 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:24DUQ 4th & 7 at DUQ 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09BUF 4th & 1 at DUQ 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:02DUQ 4th & 10 at DUQ 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00BUF 4th & 10 at DUQ 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:16BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:56BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:52DUQ 4th & 9 at DUQ 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:46BUF 4th & 7 at DUQ 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−9.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:55BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:28DUQ 4th & 6 at BUF 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−4.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:42DUQ 4th & 10 at DUQ 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:06BUF 4th & 1 at DUQ 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.3%−5.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:24DUQ 4th & 2 at BUF 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:24DUQ 4th & 5 at BUF 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUQ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:49BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:30BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:24BUF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:58DUQ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:21DUQ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:04DUQ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55DUQ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:50BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:32BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1196% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
96.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
96.1%
Devin Campbell run for 11 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
96.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
96.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+10
96.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 10 yds to the Duqsn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
96.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Duqsn 41Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+41
95.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 41 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.8%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
95.8%
Ryan Ho run for 3 yds to the Duqsn 21Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
95.8%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
95.9%
Patrick Dill punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1396% → 96%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
95.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+15
95.7%
TAYLOR, Anthone rush for loss of 1 yard to the UB28 (STONE, Nathan), PENALTY DUQ personal foul (WILLIAMS, A.) 15 yards to the UB44, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
95.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+11
95.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the Duqsn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jordan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
95.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 12 yds to the Duqsn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
95.8%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron, PENALTY DUQ pass interference (FLOYD, Nick) 15 yards to the DUQ17, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
95.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 6 yds to the Duqsn 11Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
96.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
95.9%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 14 yds to the Duqsn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
95.8%
Marcus Hughes run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 28Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
95.8%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
95.9%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Devin Rahming, broken up by Brandon CrawfordSimilar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
95.9%
Patrick Dill punt for 50 yds, downed at the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
95.9%
Devin Campbell run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
95.7%
Klartel Claridy run for 1 yd to the Duqsn 32Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
95.7%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Noel Oduho for 6 yds to the Duqsn 38Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
95.7%
Klartel Claridy run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
95.7%
Klartel Claridy run for 13 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.6%
Klartel Claridy run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
95.6%
Dillon Buechel sacked by Tedroy Lynch and Kyril Threats for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 15
50
-6
95.7%
Dillon Buechel sacked by Adam Redden for a loss of 6 yards to the Duqsn 44Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 21
OWN 44
0
95.8%
Patrick Dill punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus McGill at the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1696% → 95%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.7%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 18 Anthone Taylor fumbled, forced by Austin Whalen, recovered by Buff Jake SilasSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
95.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+6
95.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 6 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+8
95.4%
Tyler Grassman punt for 51 yds , Devin Rahming returns for 8 yds to the Duqsn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
95.2%
Rafiq Douglas run for 2 yds to the Duqsn 35Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
95.2%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 7 yds to the Duqsn 42Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
95.1%
Rafiq Douglas run for 2 yds to the Duqsn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
95.2%
Dillon Buechel sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the Duqsn 40 Dillon Buechel fumbled, recovered by Buff Kendall Roberson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
95.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 36Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+10
95.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Boise Ross for 10 yds to the Duqsn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
95.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 22Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+7
95.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Duqsn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
95.8%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Nick Floyd return for no gain to the Duqsn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:255% → 5%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
95.2%
Randy Morris run for 2 yds to the Duqsn 3Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
95.2%
Klartel Claridy run for 1 yd to the Duqsn 4Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
95.3%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Chris King, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
95.3%
Patrick Dill punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duqsn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:4596% → 98%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.6%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Duqsn 37Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
95.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 17 yds to the Duqsn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
95.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Duqsn 17Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
95.7%
Boise Ross run for no gain to the Duqsn 17Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
95.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 6 yds to the Duqsn 11Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+4
95.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
95.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Duqsn 5Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:223% → 2%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.3%
Ryan Ho run for 6 yds to the Duqsn 31Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
97.2%
Ryan Ho run for 2 yds to the Duqsn 33Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
97.2%
Ryan Ho run for 5 yds to the Duqsn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.2%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Devin Rahming, broken up by Kristjan SokoliSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
98.2%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Devin RahmingSimilar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
98.3%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Ryan HoSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
98.3%
Patrick Dill punt for 33 yds , Marcus McGill returns for no gain to the Buff 29 Marcus McGill fumbled, recovered by Duqsn Wayne Capers Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 13TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:472% → 6%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
97.9%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 25 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
97.3%
Marcus Hughes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.7%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 0
OPP 8
+6
97.1%
[SGUN], BUECHEL, Dillon pass intercepted by STRIGGLES, D. at the UB0, REDDEN, Adam return to the UB0, touchback, PENALTY UB pass interference (STRIGGLES, D.) 6 yards to the UB2, 1ST DOWN DUQ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
97.2%
Marcus Hughes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.1%
Devin Rahming 4 Yd pass from Dillon Buechel (Austin Crimmins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 1:5195% → 96%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
95.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 8 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+13
95.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 13 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
95.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Boise Ross for 15 yds to the Duqsn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Devin CampbellSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
95.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devon Hughes for 15 yds to the Duqsn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
95.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 4 yds to the Duqsn 23Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
96.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for 4 yds to the Duqsn 19Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-8
95.9%
Joe Licata sacked by Nathan Stone for a loss of 8 yards to the Duqsn 27Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
95.5%
Patrick Clarke 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:396% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.5%
Klartel Claridy run for 7 yds to the Duqsn 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
94.1%
Klartel Claridy run for 2 yds to the Duqsn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
94.2%
Klartel Claridy run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.1%
Klartel Claridy run for 2 yds to the Duqsn 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+11
94.1%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 11 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
93.8%
Ryan Ho run for 5 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+41
93.6%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 41 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.1%
Randy Morris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Crimmins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
90.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 17 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
91.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 48Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
91.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 44Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-10
90.7%
[PSTL], TAYLOR, Anthone rush for 4 yards to the DUQ40 (STONE, Nathan), PENALTY UB holding (DAVIS, Andre) 10 yards to the UB46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+1
89.8%
Devin Campbell run for 1 yd to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
89.3%
Tyler Grassman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Devin Rahming at the Duqsn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 17TD
3 plays · 93 yds · 1:2111% → 21%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
88.8%
Marcus Hughes run for 1 yd to the Duqsn 8Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+4
89.0%
Klartel Claridy run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 12Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+88
79.2%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 88 yds for a TD, (Austin Crimmins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
82.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Boise Ross for 8 yds to the Duqsn 43Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-9
82.8%
Joe Licata sacked by Devin Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
80.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Boise Ross, broken up by Devin WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
79.3%
Tyler Grassman punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
77.0%
Klartel Claridy run for 1 yd to the Duqsn 12Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
77.3%
Klartel Claridy run for no gain to the Duqsn 12Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
78.2%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Wayne Capers Jr., broken up by Brandon CrawfordSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
79.1%
Patrick Dill punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duqsn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4182% → 81%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
81.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 8 yds to the Duqsn 27Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
81.7%
Devin Campbell run for 1 yd to the Duqsn 26Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+20
80.6%
Devin Campbell run for 20 yds to the Duqsn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.7%
Devin Campbell run for 1 yd to the Duqsn 5Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
81.7%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duqsn 7Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
81.4%
Patrick Clarke 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5119% → 50%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
80.6%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chavas Rawlins for 18 yds to the Duqsn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.5%
Marcus Hughes run for no gain to the Duqsn 43Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
79.2%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chavas Rawlins for 10 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+45
77.1%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Kevin Enright for 45 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
75.7%
Marcus Hughes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 6Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.7%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Crimmins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
59.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
57.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Boise Ross, broken up by Malik ShegogSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+26
56.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 47 yds , Bobby Gustine returns for 26 yds to the Buff 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
49.0%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Devin Rahming, broken up by Dwellie StrigglesSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
49.2%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Wayne Capers Jr.Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
51.1%
Ryan Ho run for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
52.5%
Patrick Dill punt for 42 yds, downed at the Buff 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 3:0656% → 84%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
55.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+3
55.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+4
53.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
56.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+46
56.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 46 yds to the Duqsn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
61.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Duqsn 31Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
63.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Duqsn 28Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
61.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
83.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 24 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 22%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
73.6%
Dillon Buechel sacked by Adam Redden for a loss of 7 yards to the Duqsn 34Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+7
76.5%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 7 yds to the Duqsn 41Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
75.8%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Devin RahmingSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
77.6%
Patrick Dill punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus McGill at the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:3479% → 97%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
78.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
78.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 13 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
81.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 4
50
+3
81.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Duqsn 47Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
81.2%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Duqsn 47Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+1
79.5%
Joe Licata run for 1 yd to the Duqsn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
82.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Duqsn 41Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
81.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 37Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
81.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Duqsn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
82.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Duqsn 31Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
82.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Duqsn 27Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+11
89.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the Duqsn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
90.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Duqsn 13Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
91.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Duqsn 11Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
96.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 27END OF GAME
13 plays · 60 yds · 0:003% → 5%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
97.1%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Devin Rahming, broken up by Brandon CrawfordSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
97.2%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Devin Rahming, broken up by Cortney LesterSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+26
97.3%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Ryan Ho for 11 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Okezie Alozie) to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.4%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Chavas RawlinsSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.6%
Dillon Buechel run for 5 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
96.4%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Marcus Hughes for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+9
96.6%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chavas Rawlins for 9 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
95.6%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Chavas RawlinsSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
95.7%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chavas Rawlins for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
96.0%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Wayne Capers Jr., broken up by Andrews DadeboeSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+12
96.5%
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Devin Rahming for 12 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
95.5%
Dillon Buechel pass incomplete to Chavas Rawlins, broken up by Andrews DadeboeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Crimmins KICK)
-26
TD · Q4 9:50
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 24 yds for a TD, (Patrick Clarke KICK)
+22.3
TD · Q3 7:04
Dillon Buechel pass complete to Chris King for 88 yds for a TD, (Austin Crimmins KICK)
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com