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COLG

Colgate 10 at Ball State 30

BALL
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadCOLG aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreCOLG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:24 · Nikko Armiento punt for 45 yds, downed at the BalSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior+22.9Home team on offense+15.1Score differential+5.4Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:08: Scott Secor 38 yd FG GOOD — COLG win probability +1.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:44: James Travellin run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonah Bowman KICK) — COLG win probability +3.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: COLG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:45: Ozzie Mann pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 19 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +2.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:30: Scott Secor 38 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:14: Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7COLG made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58COLG 4th & 8 at COLG 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08BALL 4th & 11 at COLG 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:02COLG 4th & 3 at COLG 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:17COLG 4th & 1 at COLG 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:30BALL 4th & 5 at COLG 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:30COLG 4th & 15 at COLG 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:52COLG 4th & 2 at BALL 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00COLG 4th & 10 at COLG 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:40BALL 4th & 14 at COLG 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:21COLG 4th & 1 at COLG 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:30BALL 4th & 2 at COLG 21, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:24COLG 4th & 5 at COLG 45, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:14COLG 4th & 2 at COLG 43, down 23
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 24, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:54COLG 4th & 8 at BALL 19, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:11BALL 4th & 10 at COLG 14, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:32COLG 4th & 5 at COLG 36, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3COLG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:17BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:44COLG Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:45BALL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:14BALL Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
95.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
95.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
95.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
95.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
95.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
95.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 37 yds, downed at the Colg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.4%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Brian LalliSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
95.4%
Demetrius Russell run for 16 yds to the Colg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
95.4%
Connor Wingenroth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colg 35Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+3
95.4%
Demetrius Russell run for 3 yds to the Colg 38Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
95.4%
Jake Melville pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+7
95.4%
Nikko Armiento punt for 53 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:0095% → 94%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
95.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+28
95.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 28 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
95.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 9 yds to the Colg 46Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
95.1%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Adam BridgeforthSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
95.1%
Ozzie Mann run for 2 yds to the Colg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
95.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Colg 41Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+8
95.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the Colg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
95.1%
Horactio Banks run for 13 yds to the Colg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.1%
Horactio Banks run for no gain to the Colg 20Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-3
95.1%
Ozzie Mann run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colg 27 Ozzie Mann fumbled, forced by Kris Kent, recovered by BalSt Horactio BanksSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 17
OPP 27
+6
95.0%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the Colg 21Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
94.0%
Scott Secor 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
94.0%
John Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Colg 39Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
93.9%
John Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Colg 42Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+1
93.9%
Jake Melville run for 1 yd to the Colg 43Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
94.0%
Nikko Armiento punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 3:0194% → 94%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
93.5%
Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+16
93.5%
Horactio Banks run for 16 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
93.6%
Horactio Banks run for 19 yds to the Colg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
93.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Colg 42Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
93.8%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+8
93.8%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the Colg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for no gain to the Colg 34Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
94.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 34 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Alex GreenawaltSimilar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Jake Melville run for no gain to the Colg 25Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.0%
Jake Melville pass complete to Kevin O'Connell for 9 yds to the Colg 34Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.0%
Nikko Armiento punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3594% → 95%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
93.7%
Horactio Banks run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+30
93.7%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 15 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST down COLGATE Penalty, personal foul (Mike Armiento) to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
93.9%
Horactio Banks run for 6 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+30
93.9%
Horactio Banks run for 30 yds to the Colg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
94.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Colg 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
94.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Colg 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
93.9%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
95.0%
Scott Secor 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.4%
Demetrius Russell run for 5 yds to the Colg 30Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-18
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the Colg 12Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+8
94.5%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Quazza for 8 yds to the Colg 20Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
94.6%
Nikko Armiento punt for 36 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for no gain to the Colg 20 COLGATE Penalty, kick catching interference (Brian Lalli) to the Colg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
95.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the Colg 37Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
95.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the Colg 32Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
95.1%
Ozzie Mann run for 2 yds to the Colg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
95.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Colg 28Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
95.2%
Ozzie Mann pass intercepted, touchback. Adam Bridgeforth return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 10TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:276% → 11%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
94.2%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Maddaluna for 9 yds to the Colg 29Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
94.0%
James Travellin run for 6 yds to the Colg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
94.1%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Quazza for 37 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
93.5%
James Travellin run for 2 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
93.5%
Jake Melville run for 1 yd to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
93.8%
Demetrius Russell run for 5 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+11
93.8%
John Wilkins run for 11 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
93.5%
Jake Melville pass complete to Kevin O'Connell for 5 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.1%
James Travellin run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonah Bowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:5691% → 95%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
91.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 12 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
91.5%
MANN, Ozzie pass incomplete to SHILLINGS, C., PENALTY COLGATE pass interference (Morgan, Chris) 15 yards to the COLGATE46, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
91.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Colg 40Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
91.9%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the Colg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
91.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 9 yds to the Colg 25Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
91.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Colg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
91.9%
Horactio Banks run for 2 yds to the Colg 21Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
91.9%
Horactio Banks run for 2 yds to the Colg 19Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
94.7%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 19 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.9%
BALL ST Penalty, IP (5 Yards) to the Colg 30Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
93.8%
Demetrius Russell run for 2 yds to the Colg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.4%
Jake Melville run for 11 yds to the Colg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.2%
Demetrius Russell run for no gain to the Colg 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
93.3%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to John QuazzaSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
93.5%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Alex GreenawaltSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.6%
Nikko Armiento punt for 41 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
94.3%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
94.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
94.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+13
94.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 13 yds to the Colg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
94.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Colg 42Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
94.5%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete, broken up by Kris KentSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+4
94.3%
Ozzie Mann run for 4 yds to the Colg 38Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-5
94.0%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Colg 43Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 9
OPP 43
-5
93.9%
BALL ST Penalty, IP (-5 Yards) to the Colg 48Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
93.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.7%
John Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Colg 24Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
93.5%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Colg 26Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
93.6%
Jake Melville pass complete to C.J. Stempeck for 3 yds to the Colg 29Similar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
93.6%
John Wilkins run for no gain to the Colg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2395% → 96%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
94.6%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 6 yds to the Colg 23Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+2
94.6%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Colg 21Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
94.3%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
96.0%
Scott Secor 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.4%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Brian LalliSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
94.6%
Demetrius Russell run for 6 yds to the Colg 29Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+11
94.2%
Jake Melville pass complete to Brian Lalli for 11 yds to the Colg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
93.9%
James Travellin run for 5 yds to the Colg 45Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
93.8%
Jake Melville pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
94.0%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Brian LalliSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Nikko Armiento punt for 45 yds, downed at the BalSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:5996% → 99%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+36
96.1%
Horactio Banks run for 36 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
96.4%
Horactio Banks run for 8 yds to the Colg 46Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+15
96.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 15 yds to the Colg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
96.5%
Horactio Banks run for 2 yds to the Colg 29Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+16
96.5%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 3 yds to the Colg 26 for a 1ST down COLGATE Penalty, personal foul (Adam Bridgeforth) to the Colg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
96.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 9 yds to the Colg 4Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
99.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.8%
Jake Melville pass complete to Risley Lesko for 6 yds to the Colg 41Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
98.8%
Demetrius Russell run for 2 yds to the Colg 43Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
98.8%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Alex GreenawaltSimilar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
98.8%
Nikko Armiento punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:1299% → 99%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.0%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 2 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Keyon WashingtonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by John Maddaluna at the Colg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 21FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:491% → 1%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
98.9%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Quazza for 8 yds to the Colg 39Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+21
98.9%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Quazza for 21 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.9%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Alex GreenawaltSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.9%
John Wilkins run for 6 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+13
98.9%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Quazza for 13 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
98.8%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
98.8%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to John WilkinsSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
98.9%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Wilkins for no gain to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
99.1%
Jonah Bowman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:3199% → 99%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+15
99.1%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 15 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.2%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the Colg 44Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+16
99.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 16 yds to the Colg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.2%
Teddy Williamson run for 6 yds to the Colg 22Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+7
99.2%
Teddy Williamson run for 7 yds to the Colg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-14
99.2%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the Colg 14 BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (Jacob Richard) to the Colg 29Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 25
OPP 29
+1
99.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the Colg 28Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 24
OPP 28
+14
99.2%
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Chris Shillings for 14 yds to the Colg 14Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
99.2%
Ozzie Mann pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
99.1%
Scott Secor 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:391% → 1%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.2%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Quazza for 5 yds to the Colg 25Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
James Travellin run for 6 yds to the Colg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.2%
James Travellin run for 3 yds to the Colg 34Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to John QuazzaSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+2
99.5%
Jake Melville pass complete to Demetrius Russell for 2 yds to the Colg 36Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
99.5%
Nikko Armiento punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.5%
Darian Green run for 7 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
99.5%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
99.5%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.5%
Darian Green run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 1
50
+7
99.5%
Darian Green run for 7 yds to the Colg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Darian Green run for no gain to the Colg 43Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.5%
Darian Green run for 7 yds to the Colg 36Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-2
99.5%
Teddy Williamson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:44
James Travellin run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonah Bowman KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q2 0:45
Ozzie Mann pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 19 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q3 1:14
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com