2014 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2014 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadUTC aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreUTC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:06 · Nick Pollard punt for 44 yds , Titus Davis returns for 2 yds to the CMich 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:34: Jacob Huesman pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 70 yds for a TD, (Henrique Ribeiro BLOCKED) — UTC win probability +15.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:56: Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ron Coluzzi MISSED) — CMU win probability +14.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q3 7:30: Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Ron Coluzzi KICK) — CMU win probability +13.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:16: Jacob Huesman run for 3 yds to the CMich 43 — UTC win probability +15.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40: Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 49 — CMU win probability +17.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UTC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:33CMU 4th & 8 at UTC 42, tiedClose callPunted · 78.1% before the snapGo for it78.2%34% to convertField goal78.1%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call78.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:56UTC 4th & 8 at UTC 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snapGo for it22.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%average punt
- Q1 10:21UTC 4th & 7 at CMU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call22.8%56% to makePunt22.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:41CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snapGo for it75.9%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.0%average punt
- Q1 4:28UTC 4th & 2 at UTC 31, up 3Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it25.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:23CMU 4th & 14 at UTC 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snapGo for it72.1%−0.419% to convertField goal72.2%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call72.4%average punt
- Q2 4:25CMU 4th & 22 at UTC 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snapGo for it53.4%−1.97% to convertField goalTheir call55.4%64% to makePunt51.6%−3.7average punt
- Q2 1:06UTC 4th & 6 at UTC 26, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snapGo for it44.2%−1.039% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.2%average punt
- Q3 4:21UTC 4th & 10 at UTC 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snapGo for it25.0%−1.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q3 1:52CMU 4th & 1 at UTC 10, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.2%71% to convertField goal72.6%−3.688% to makePunt62.7%−13.5average punt
- Q4 14:52UTC 4th & 16 at UTC 4, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it20.4%−4.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q4 9:04UTC 4th & 11 at UTC 19, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it22.8%−1.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q4 4:26CMU 4th & 11 at UTC 38, up 4Close callWent for it · 84.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.1%−0.327% to convertField goal83.3%38% to makePunt82.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 2:40CMU 4th & 2 at UTC 44, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 87.5% before the snapGo for it87.3%57% to convertField goal82.5%−4.827% to makePuntTheir call83.7%−3.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 9:35UTC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.1%97% to makeGo for two38.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:43CMU Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.4%97% to makeGo for two54.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:30CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.0%97% to makeGo for two72.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTCDrive 1INT3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2622% → 22%
CMUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5178% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2922% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · 1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
77.8%
Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore run for 1 yd to the CMich 33 Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore fumbled, forced by Muhasibi Wakeel, recovered by Chatt Derrick LottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 5FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2423% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3177% → 76%
Q1 7:41
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+50
75.9%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CENTMICH 11 CHATTANOOGA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dale Warren) to the Chatt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 3:0724% → 25%
CMUDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 3:5775% → 72%
UTCDrive 9TD14 plays · 94 yds · 5:4027% → 37%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+22
71.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Faysal Shafaat for 22 yds to the Chatt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
69.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Richardre Bagley for 14 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+6
69.3%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to C.J. Board for 6 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
62.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 8 yds for a TD, (Henrique Ribeiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10MISSED FG14 plays · 52 yds · 5:0062% → 57%
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
61.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 6 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
61.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Thomas Rawls for 6 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+37
60.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Saylor Lavallii for 23 yds to the CENTMICH 28 for a 1ST down CHATTANOOGA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tim Whatley) to the Chatt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-10
61.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Chatt 22Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+1
60.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Thomas Rawls for 1 yd to the Chatt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 11TD2 plays · 74 yds · 0:4343% → 58%
CMUDrive 12TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4648% → 61%
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
48.4%
CHATTANOOGA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+33
49.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 33 yds to the Chatt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
60.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 18 yds for a TD, (Ron Coluzzi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 0:2345% → 46%
CMUDrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · 3 yds · 1:0053% → 51%
CMUDrive 15TD13 plays · 74 yds · 5:5453% → 65%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
53.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Titus Davis for 11 yds to the Chatt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
54.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 2 yds to the Chatt 47Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+3
49.5%
Cooper Rush sacked by Derrick Lott for a loss of 6 yards to the Chatt 17 for a 1ST down CHATTANOOGA Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Chatt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 16INT3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3243% → 45%
CMUDrive 17TD3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4665% → 77%
UTCDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5926% → 26%
Q3 4:21
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+66
74.0%
Nick Pollard punt for 43 yds , Titus Davis returns for 66 yds to the Chatt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1879% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:5027% → 25%
CMUDrive 21MISSED FG8 plays · 27 yds · 4:0579% → 76%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
78.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 12 yds to the Chatt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2629% → 26%
CMUDrive 23DOWNS8 plays · 2 yds · 4:2977% → 84%
Q4 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+14
79.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 14 yds to the Chatt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 24INT2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2931% → 31%
CMUDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0087% → 89%
UTCDrive 26INT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:5614% → 10%
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+26
87.4%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Troy Dye for 11 yds to the Chatt 16 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Chatt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-4
85.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Derrick Craine for a loss of 4 yards to the Chatt 27Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-10
89.7%
CHATTANOOGA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Chatt 17Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 24
OWN 17
0
89.7%
Jacob Huesman pass intercepted Tony Annese return for no gain to the Chatt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · -7 yds · 1:2093% → 95%
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 49
+17.7
TD · Q2 3:34
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 70 yds for a TD, (Henrique Ribeiro BLOCKED)
-15.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:16
Jacob Huesman run for 3 yds to the CMich 43
-15