Try the model
UAB

UAB 45 at Southern Miss 24

USM
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+1USM 1.2%Jalen Richard run for 60 yds for a TD,(Corey Acosta KICK)AWAY 45 - HOME 24 · Q4 4:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:28 · Jalen Richard run for 60 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Home team on offense−45.4Score differential−27.3Garbage-time factor−16.0Pregame prior−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:55: Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 22 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK) — UAB win probability +10.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:41: Ty Long kickoff for 65 yds , Michael Thomas return for 100 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +13.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:32: Jordan Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Long KICK) — UAB win probability +12.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:13: Corey Acosta kickoff for 64 yds , Jamarcus Nelson return for 99 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK) — UAB win probability +14.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:03: Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +12.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UAB 4th & 1 at USM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:54USM 4th & 11 at UAB 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:11USM 4th & 17 at USM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UAB 4th & 6 at USM 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:21USM 4th & 15 at UAB 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:21UAB 4th & 3 at USM 48, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:26USM 4th & 8 at USM 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:32UAB 4th & 1 at USM 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−3.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 3 at USM 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:03USM 4th & 3 at UAB 3, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    -1.3%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:49UAB 4th & 10 at USM 17, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:49USM 4th & 20 at USM 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:10USM 4th & 17 at USM 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:34UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 49, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:44UAB 4th & 5 at USM 38, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:50USM 4th & 9 at USM 3, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:11UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:47UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:55UAB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:41USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:32UAB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:13UAB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:03USM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:10UAB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:28USM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
44.1%
Jordan Howard run for 17 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
44.1%
Jordan Howard run for 7 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+11
44.1%
Jordan Howard run for 11 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
44.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 6 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
44.1%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
44.1%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-1
44.1%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2745% → 45%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
44.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+20
44.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 20 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
44.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 36Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
44.8%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
44.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+53
45.0%
Corey Acosta 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:4355% → 57%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+42
44.8%
D.J. Vinson run for 42 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
44.5%
Cody Clements run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+24
43.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Tristan Henderson for 24 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
43.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 10 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
43.9%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
43.9%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-8
43.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by Diaheem Watkins for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 17
OWN 30
+59
43.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jamarcus Nelson at the SOUMISS 21 UAB Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the UAB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 2:5957% → 62%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+52
43.2%
Jordan Howard run for 52 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
42.5%
D.J. Vinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+3
42.6%
D.J. Vinson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+23
42.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 23 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
42.5%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+1
42.5%
Cody Clements run for 1 yd to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
38.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 14 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FUMBLE
10 plays · 59 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 12 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
40.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
40.3%
MULLENS, Nick middle pass incomplete to COOK, Chad, PENALTY UAB pass interference (JEAN, Jimmy) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
50
+8
40.6%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+12
40.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 12 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
40.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 35Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+22
40.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 22 yds to the UAB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
40.9%
Nick Mullens run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 16 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by UAB Alonzo McGeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:3163% → 65%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
36.9%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
36.9%
Cody Clements run for no gain to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+7
37.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 7 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
36.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamari Staples for 12 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
36.3%
Jordan Howard run for 7 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
34.6%
Jordan Howard run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
34.6%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
34.7%
Cody Clements pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+5
35.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 5 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
35.2%
Hunter Mullins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 5:0835% → 32%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
35.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 8
OWN 13
-2
35.2%
Nick Mullens sacked by Tevin Crews for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+12
34.9%
Nick Mullens run for 12 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
35.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
35.3%
Nick Mullens sacked by Diaheem Watkins for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 20 Nick Mullens fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+23
34.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 23 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
36.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Jimmy JeanSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
36.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+13
36.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 13 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
36.8%
Jalen Richard run for 14 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
34.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UAB 32Similar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
34.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese Triplett, broken up by Darius WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+6
34.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 6 yds to the UAB 26Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 9
OPP 26
-6
34.2%
Nick Mullens sacked by Shaq Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 32Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+49
32.4%
Corey Acosta 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
30.9%
Jordan Howard run for 13 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.0%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
30.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Tristan Henderson for 7 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
30.3%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamarcus Nelson, broken up by Wil FreemanSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
31.1%
Hunter Mullins punt for 42 yds, downed at the SoMis 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:5131% → 28%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
30.6%
MULLENS, Nick deep pass intercepted by BROWN, Devon at the USM40, BROWN, Devon return to the USM6, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UAB holding 10 yards to the USM16, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
30.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+14
30.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Curtis Mikell for 14 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
31.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 2 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
31.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
28.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+25
28.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 43 yds , Jamarcus Nelson returns for 25 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11TD
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:1073% → 87%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
50
+1
27.3%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
27.4%
Jordan Howard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
27.6%
Darius Powell run for 2 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
30.4%
Jordan Howard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
29.0%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-5
28.7%
UAB Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+6
29.3%
Cody Clements run for 6 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+6
24.3%
Jordan Howard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
23.9%
Jordan Howard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+22
13.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 22 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:3076% → 78%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
24.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamari Staples for 9 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+17
23.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 17 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
23.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 3 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-5
22.9%
UAB Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+37
22.1%
Ty Long 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
26.5%
Jalen Richard run for 12 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
25.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 6 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
26.3%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
25.9%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
25.6%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
27.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
26.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:0277% → 90%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+47
23.5%
Jordan Howard run for 47 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
21.8%
D.J. Vinson run for 16 yds to the SoMis 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.6%
Jordan Howard pass complete to D.J. Vinson for no gain to the SoMis 3Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
21.8%
Jordan Howard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.6%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:0615% → 18%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+35
14.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 35 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
16.2%
MULLENS, Nick deep pass incomplete to MARTIN, Casey, PENALTY UAB pass interference (WILLIAMS, Dariu) 15 yards to the UAB33, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
16.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 26 yds to the UAB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
16.9%
UAB Penalty, personal foul (3 Yards) to the UAB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
16.9%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the UAB 2Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
16.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UAB 17Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
16.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-11
15.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by Shaq Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 0
OPP 28
+45
17.5%
Corey Acosta 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:103% → 16%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
2.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 13 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
2.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 24 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
3.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 4 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+15
3.3%
UAB Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UAB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
3.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 2 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+9
3.3%
UAB Penalty, personal foul (Tevin Crews) to the UAB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
3.3%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the UAB 7Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
3.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the UAB 2Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
3.6%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 3Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 6:1489% → 97%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
10.9%
Jordan Howard run for no gain to the UAB 23Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
11.0%
D.J. Vinson run for 5 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+7
11.1%
Cody Clements run for 7 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
10.9%
D.J. Vinson run for 1 yd to the UAB 36Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+17
10.7%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for 17 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
10.1%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+17
10.2%
Jordan Howard run for 17 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
9.8%
Jordan Howard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+3
9.8%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
9.8%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+2
10.0%
D.J. Vinson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
5.7%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
3.2%
Ty Long 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
4.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Jake Ganus for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
4.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Jake GanusSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
4.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
4.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 33 yds, downed at the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:3497% → 100%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
2.6%
Jordan Howard run for 28 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
2.5%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+7
2.5%
D.J. Vinson run for 7 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+12
0.5%
D.J. Vinson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.6%
Ito Smith run for 19 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
0.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-7
0.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Parrish Huddleston for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
0.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jamarcus Nelson at the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:1999% → 100%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
0.6%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the UAB 19Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+2
0.6%
Cody Clements run for 2 yds to the UAB 21Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+8
0.6%
Cody Clements run for 8 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
0.6%
D.J. Vinson run for 1 yd to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
0.6%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+10
0.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 10 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
0.3%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
0.3%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
0.3%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the UAB 49Similar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
0.3%
Hunter Mullins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:150% → 1%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
0.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 11 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
0.2%
MULLENS, Nick deep pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J., PENALTY UAB pass interference (FARMER, Lamarcu) 15 yards to the USM38, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+60
1.2%
Jalen Richard run for 60 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4499% → 100%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
0.6%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
0.5%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
0.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
0.5%
Hunter Mullins punt for 36 yds, downed at the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
1.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for no gain to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-1
1.0%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+2
1.0%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
0.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 54 yds, downed at the UAB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:13
Corey Acosta kickoff for 64 yds , Jamarcus Nelson return for 99 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q2 0:41
Ty Long kickoff for 65 yds , Michael Thomas return for 100 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q3 11:32
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com