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UNT

North Texas 27 at UTSA 34

UTSA
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:13 · Kristian Stern punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior+5.9Home team on offense+12.3Garbage-time factor+6.4Score differential+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:21: David Glasco II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno PAT MISSED) — UTSA win probability +5.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:05: Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Bias for 39 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +8.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:13: Andrew McNulty pass complete to Marcus Smith for 31 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +8.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:12: Andrew McNulty 1 Yd Run (Andrew McNulty Pass to Darius Terrell for Two-Point Conversion) — UNT win probability +31.9 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:18: Brandon Armstrong run for 21 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +29.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 8:24UNT 4th & 5 at UTSA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:24UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:26UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 26, up 4
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:07UNT 4th & 5 at UTSA 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:07UTSA 4th & 1 at UNT 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:46UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 49, down 8
    Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:23UNT 4th & 4 at UTSA 12, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:21UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:46UNT 4th & 3 at UTSA 4, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:13UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 45, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:12UTSA 4th & 7 at UNT 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−2.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:01UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−7.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:29UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:56UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−3.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:18UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:15UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:25UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:46UTSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:21UTSA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:05UTSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:13UNT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:12UNT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:18UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3568% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
67.5%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
67.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 7 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+20
67.5%
Brandon Armstrong run for 20 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
67.5%
Tucker Carter run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 43 Tucker Carter fumbled, recovered by TexSA David Glasco IISimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+9
67.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+10
67.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Josiah Monroe for 10 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
68.6%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:0132% → 33%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+38
68.2%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 38 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
67.9%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
67.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Darius Terrell for 6 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+6
67.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Marcus Smith for 6 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
67.7%
Reggie Pegram run for no gain to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
67.7%
Reggie Pegram run for 5 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
67.9%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
67.4%
Trevor Moore 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
67.6%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Seth GrubbSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
67.4%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
67.5%
Brandon Armstrong run for 2 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
67.6%
Tucker Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-8
67.3%
Tucker Carter sacked by Daryl Mason for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+5
66.9%
Kristian Stern punt for 54 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for 5 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
67.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
67.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
67.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 8 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-1
66.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
67.0%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete, broken up by Robert SingletarySimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
67.5%
Eric Keena punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
67.4%
Carter sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UTSA2 (Mason), PENALTY NT face mask (Moore,S) 15 yards to the UTSA19, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
67.5%
Brandon Armstrong run for 1 yd to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
67.4%
Brandon Armstrong run for 6 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
67.2%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
66.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Darvin Kidsy at the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:1533% → 34%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
66.9%
Reggie Pegram run for 2 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
66.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to John Chelf for 7 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
66.3%
Reggie Pegram run for 3 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
66.3%
Reggie Pegram run for 2 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
66.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete, broken up by Robert SingletarySimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+26
66.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Darius Terrell for 26 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
65.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Marcus Smith, broken up by Duke WheelerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
65.2%
Andrew McNulty run for 5 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
65.6%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
65.9%
Trevor Moore 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:2167% → 73%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
66.7%
David Glasco II run for 6 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
67.7%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kam Jones, broken up by James JonesSimilar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+14
67.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 14 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
68.1%
David Glasco II run for 6 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-5
68.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
68.0%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Josiah MonroeSimilar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+8
67.4%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 8 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+30
67.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Seth Grubb for 30 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
68.3%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.3%
Tucker Carter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) NORTH TEXAS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
72.6%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darius Terrell, broken up by Sheldon WadeSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+14
72.7%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Turner Smiley for 14 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
72.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
72.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 9 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
71.4%
Jarrod Lynn run for 2 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
71.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
71.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 49Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
71.2%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos Harris, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
72.4%
Eric Keena punt for 30 yds , Aaron Grubb returns for no gain to the TexSA 18 Aaron Grubb fumbled, recovered by NoTex Jarrod LynnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5129% → 33%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
70.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 12 Jeffrey Wilson fumbled, forced by Drew Douglas, recovered by NoTex Jeffrey WilsonSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
70.8%
Reggie Pegram run for no gain to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
71.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
66.7%
Trevor Moore 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:0270% → 78%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+47
70.2%
David Glasco II run for 47 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+27
72.4%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 27 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.6%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.7%
Reggie Pegram run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
75.7%
Andrew McNulty run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
76.1%
McNulty rush up middle for 8 yards to the NT37, out-of-bounds (Wheeler), PENALTY NT holding (Kirby) 10 yards to the NT19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+13
76.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 13 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.4%
Eric Keena punt for 38 yds , Aaron Grubb returns for no gain to the TexSA 38 Aaron Grubb fumbled, recovered by NoTex Sed EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1624% → 26%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
76.0%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Darius Terrell for 9 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+18
74.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 18 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
74.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
74.9%
Andrew McNulty run for 4 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 2
OPP 3
-1
75.8%
Reggie Pegram run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 4Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
74.1%
Trevor Moore 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · -12 yds · 0:2777% → 77%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kam JonesSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
76.9%
Carter crossing pass complete to Glasco II for 7 yards to the UTSA32 (Scott), PENALTY UTSA holding (Inskeep) 10 yards to the UTSA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-1
77.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 14Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-1
76.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
75.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 4 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-10
75.6%
Pegram rush right for 11 yards to the NT36 (Jeters), PENALTY NT holding (Lemon) 10 yards to the NT15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+1
76.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+8
77.1%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 8 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+14
77.3%
Eric Keena punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 21 , Kenny Harrison returns for 14 yds to the TexSA 38 TEXASSAN Penalty, illegal block (Duke Wheeler) to the TexSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:3678% → 88%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
77.8%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+20
77.9%
Tucker Carter run for 20 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
79.5%
Kam Jones run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 4
50
+3
79.6%
Brandon Armstrong run for 3 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+8
78.9%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 8 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
87.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Bias for 39 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 4:5214% → 25%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
85.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+11
85.8%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 11 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
85.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+17
85.8%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 17 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.4%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
84.7%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Darius Terrell for 11 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
83.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+8
84.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 8 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
83.5%
Andrew McNulty run for 2 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
83.1%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+31
74.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Marcus Smith for 31 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.8%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Cole HubbleSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
80.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Earon Holmes for 9 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
82.5%
David Glasco II run for 7 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
83.5%
Tucker Carter run for no gain to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
82.5%
Brandon Armstrong run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
81.7%
Kristian Stern punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:1418% → 52%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+13
82.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Marcus Smith for 13 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
81.1%
Reggie Pegram run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
80.2%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Reggie Pegram for 2 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
80.4%
Andrew McNulty run for 8 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
79.5%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 2 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
80.5%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 7 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
80.1%
Jarrod Lynn run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
79.0%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carl Caldwell for 3 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
78.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 0
+20
80.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 20 yds to the TexSA 1 Jeffrey Wilson fumbled, forced by Michael Egwuagu, recovered by NoTex Mason Y'Barbo for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.2%
Andrew McNulty 1 Yd Run (Andrew McNulty Pass to Darius Terrell for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
59.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 31 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
64.9%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
64.2%
Brandon Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
63.9%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kam JonesSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
60.7%
Kristian Stern punt for 28 yds, downed at the NoTex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
54.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+26
55.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Darius Terrell for 26 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
51.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
51.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Marcus Smith, broken up by Jason NeillSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
53.2%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 9
OWN 41
-5
56.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (Eric Keena) to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
57.7%
Eric Keena punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
58.6%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for 12 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
59.4%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
59.0%
Brandon Armstrong run for 8 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
61.4%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Brandon Armstrong, broken up by James JonesSimilar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+8
58.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 53 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for 8 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 43%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
52.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
52.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for no gain to the NoTex 18Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
54.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darvin KidsySimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
57.0%
Eric Keena punt for 38 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for no gain to the TexSA 46 Kenny Harrison fumbled, recovered by TexSA Kenny HarrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:1363% → 93%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
62.8%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+30
63.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Cole Hubble for 30 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
93.0%
Brandon Armstrong run for 21 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.7%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darius TerrellSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-13
86.9%
McNulty deep out pass complete to Harris for 15 yards to the NT40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NT pass interference 13 yards to the NT12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 23
OWN 12
-1
87.1%
Reggie Pegram run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 11Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+27
88.0%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 27 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.4%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
84.9%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner Smiley, broken up by Brian KingSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
86.7%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carl CaldwellSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
87.8%
Eric Keena punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0993% → 94%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
93.2%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
94.5%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kam Jones, broken up by Anthony Lee Jr.Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Kristian Stern punt for 25 yds , Zac Whitfield returns for no gain to the NoTex 49 Zac Whitfield fumbled, recovered by TexSA Marcellus MackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0796% → 96%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
95.7%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
95.8%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
95.7%
David Glasco II run for 5 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
95.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:12
Andrew McNulty 1 Yd Run (Andrew McNulty Pass to Darius Terrell for Two-Point Conversion)
-31.9
TD · Q4 4:18
Brandon Armstrong run for 21 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
+29.8
TD · Q3 10:05
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Bias for 39 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com