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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 21 at UTEP 24

UTEP
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:22 · Jay Mattox punt for 37 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 9 yds to the MTnSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+5.1Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score differential+0.2Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:34: Shane Tucker 1 Yd Run (Cody Clark Kick) — MTSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:05: Aaron Jones 7 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +15.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:44: Austin Grammer 3 Yd Run (Cody Clark Kick) — MTSU win probability +26.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:19: Jameill Showers 5 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +28.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:26: Timeout UTEP, clock 01:26 — UTEP win probability +22.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:53UTEP 4th & 10 at MTSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:29MTSU 4th & 6 at UTEP 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:06MTSU 4th & 14 at MTSU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:10UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 25, up 3
    Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:36MTSU 4th & 6 at UTEP 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:22UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:25UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:51MTSU 4th & 10 at UTEP 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−2.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−10.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:30UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−11.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:16MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:06UTEP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:34MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:05UTEP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:44MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:19UTEP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
58.4%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Eric Tomlinson for 3 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
58.4%
JONES, Aaron rush over right guard for no gain to the UTEP26 (BARBER, T.T.;BASTIEN, S.), PENALTY MT offside (RHODES, Steven) 5 yards to the UTEP31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
58.4%
Aaron Jones run for 8 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
58.4%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
58.4%
Jameill Showers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
58.4%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 4 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+11
58.4%
Jay Mattox punt blocked by Chris Perkins blocked by Chris Perkins Chris Perkins return for 11 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4242% → 43%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
58.0%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 8 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+4
58.0%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.6%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:2357% → 57%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.1%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
57.2%
Aaron Jones run for 7 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
57.2%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
57.3%
Jameill Showers run for 21 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
57.0%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
57.2%
Nathan Jeffery run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
57.0%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
57.2%
Aaron Jones run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
57.2%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Autrey Golden, broken up by Shubert BastienSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
57.2%
Jameill Showers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
56.9%
Nathan Jeffery run for no gain to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
57.0%
Jay Mattox 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:2443% → 45%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.7%
Reggie Whatley run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
56.4%
Ed'Marques Batties run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
56.3%
Reggie Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
56.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 10 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
56.1%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
56.0%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
56.0%
Austin Grammer run for 2 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+21
56.0%
Austin Grammer run for 21 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
55.4%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
55.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 1 yd to the UTEP 24Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
55.8%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus HenrySimilar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
54.9%
Cody Clark 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:2356% → 59%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-11
55.5%
JONES, Aaron rush over left tackle for 9 yards to the UTEP33 (WALKER, Xavier), PENALTY UTEP illegal block (WATKINS, Jerel) 11 yards to the UTEP13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 21
OWN 13
+10
55.3%
Aaron Jones run for 10 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+5
55.2%
Jameill Showers run for 5 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+72
59.0%
Aaron Jones 72 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
59.8%
Austin Grammer run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
50
+2
58.0%
Austin Grammer run for 2 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-6
58.0%
Austin Grammer sacked by Jimmy Musgrave for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
59.8%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 14
OWN 46
+12
60.6%
Sean O'Kane punt for 41 yds , Damian Payne returns for 12 yds to the UTEP 42 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (18 Yards) to the UTEP 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
59.2%
Josh Bell run for 4 yds to the UTEP 11 Josh Bell fumbled, forced by Raynard Felton, , return for no gain to the UTEP 11Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
59.3%
Nathan Jeffery run for 3 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+5
58.7%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the UTEP 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
59.6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 7 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
60.0%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Jameill Showers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+9
58.3%
Jay Mattox punt for 29 yds , Jared Singletary returns for 9 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
57.5%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
57.6%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
57.9%
Austin Grammer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
59.1%
Sean O'Kane punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
60.9%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
61.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Darrin Laufasa for no gain to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
60.0%
Jameill Showers run for 3 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+9
59.4%
Jay Mattox punt for 37 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 9 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:4442% → 52%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
58.5%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 12 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
57.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 15 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
56.6%
Jeremiah Bryson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+19
57.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 19 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
56.6%
Shane Tucker run for 9 yds to the UTEP 1Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.1%
Shane Tucker 1 Yd Run (Cody Clark Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0052% → 53%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
51.9%
Aaron Jones run for 9 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+1
54.5%
Jameill Showers run for 1 yd to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
54.1%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
54.4%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
53.9%
Jameill Showers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
52.7%
Jay Mattox punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
49.3%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13MISSED FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 6:0951% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.0%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus HenrySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.2%
Shane Tucker run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
48.4%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
48.0%
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
47.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jeremiah Bryson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
47.4%
Austin Grammer run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
46.7%
Shane Tucker run for 11 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
46.4%
Shane Tucker run for 9 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+13
45.3%
Jordan Parker run for 13 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
45.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Darius Johnson) to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
-1
45.6%
Austin Grammer run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 24
-10
46.1%
GRAMMER, Austin rush right for 4 yards to the UTEP20 (MILLER, Wesley), PENALTY MT holding (ROGERS, Hunter) 10 yards to the UTEP34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 26
OPP 34
+5
46.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Christian Collis for 5 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 29
+11
48.4%
Shane Tucker run for 11 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
47.3%
Cody Clark 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 7:4649% → 70%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.6%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
48.4%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Eric Tomlinson for 13 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
49.2%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+6
51.2%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
51.6%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
51.9%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 7 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+8
52.5%
Aaron Jones run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
53.1%
Jameill Showers run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+8
55.0%
Jameill Showers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
55.0%
Aaron Jones run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+6
55.0%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
55.0%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 7 Aaron Jones fumbled, forced by Shubert Bastien, recovered by UTEP Eric TomlinsonSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
70.3%
Aaron Jones 7 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2135% → 68%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
65.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Tyler Barron for 12 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
63.5%
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
62.1%
Shane Tucker run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
60.8%
Shane Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+6
62.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 6 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+37
60.6%
Austin Grammer run for 37 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
58.0%
Shane Tucker run for 9 yds to the UTEP 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
58.0%
Shane Tucker run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 3Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.8%
Austin Grammer 3 Yd Run (Cody Clark Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2540% → 76%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
40.3%
Aaron Jones run for 10 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
40.9%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
44.6%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Jarrad ShawSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+13
42.9%
Jameill Showers run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
45.9%
Josh Bell run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
46.0%
Nathan Jeffery run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
48.0%
Nathan Jeffery run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
48.0%
Nathan Jeffery run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
48.0%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
48.0%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.3%
Jameill Showers 5 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:4832% → 35%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.6%
Reggie Whatley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
67.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Christian Collis) to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
68.4%
Austin Grammer run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.9%
Reggie Whatley run for no gain to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
66.7%
GRAMMER, Austin deep pass incomplete to FRAZIER, D., PENALTY UTEP pass interference (COCKRELL, Devin) 15 yards to the UTEP49, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
61.2%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
60.3%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
61.2%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+27
59.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 27 yds to the UTEP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
58.5%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd to the UTEP 7Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.8%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted Jameel Erving return for no gain to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:5687% → 94%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
87.0%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-3
89.8%
Jameill Showers run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+1
88.7%
Jameill Showers run for 1 yd to the UTEP 21Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
93.9%
Jay Mattox punt for 29 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0016% → 12%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
50
-4
83.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus Henry MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal forward pass (Austin Grammer) to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
87.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
88.3%
A.J. Erdely pass intercepted Wesley Miller return for no gain to the UTEP 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:19
Jameill Showers 5 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)
+28.3
TD · Q4 11:44
Austin Grammer 3 Yd Run (Cody Clark Kick)
-26.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:26
Timeout UTEP, clock 01:26
+22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com