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USM

Southern Miss 10 at UTSA 12

UTSA
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 13, 2014 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:08 · Tyler Sarrazin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior+17.4Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 14:42: Corey Acosta 36 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +5.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:14: David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line — UTSA win probability +11.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:35: Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 22 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +41.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:07: Timeout TEXASSAN, clock 00:07 — USM win probability +27.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. FG · Q4 0:02: Sean Ianno 38 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +63.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 12USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 5:36UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:52USM 4th & 3 at USM 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 1 at USM 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:08UTSA 4th & 2 at USM 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:08USM 4th & 3 at USM 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:38UTSA 4th & 6 at USM 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:48USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:45UTSA 4th & 2 at USM 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:11UTSA 4th & 2 at USM 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:00UTSA 4th & 8 at USM 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:01UTSA 4th & 17 at USM 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:01USM 4th & 8 at UTSA 45, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:27UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 43, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:42USM 4th & 10 at UTSA 19, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−9.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:42UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:55USM 4th & 1 at UTSA 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.9%−4.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:14UTSA 4th & 4 at USM 46, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−3.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:35UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:14USM 4th & 10 at USM 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−5.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 7:35USM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 67 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
75.6%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
75.6%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
75.6%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
75.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
75.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
75.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Curtis Mikell for 10 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
75.6%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
75.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+29
75.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 29 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
75.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSA 11 Ito Smith fumbled, forced by Team, recovered by TexSA Ashaad MabrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2INT
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:5575% → 74%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
74.6%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
74.6%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+3
74.5%
Austin Robinson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
74.7%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 3 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+7
74.7%
David Glasco II run for 7 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
74.7%
Cornell Armstrong run for 6 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
74.9%
Cornell Armstrong run for 2 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
74.9%
Austin Robinson pass complete to N/A for 7 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
75.0%
Robinson sideline pass incomplete to Mack, PENALTY USM pass interference (Reed) 15 yards to the USM39, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
75.1%
Cornell Armstrong run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+3
75.0%
Austin Robinson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
74.3%
Austin Robinson pass intercepted Dasman McCullum return for no gain to the SoMis 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
73.3%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Triston Wade return for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
73.7%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
73.9%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
73.5%
Robinson crossing pass incomplete to Mack, PENALTY USM substitution infraction 5 yards to the UTSA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
74.0%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
74.2%
Austin Robinson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-5
74.3%
Cornell Armstrong run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 13
OWN 40
-5
73.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+5
73.3%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
73.3%
Kristian Stern punt for 52 yds, downed at the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
72.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 9Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+2
72.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+4
72.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 4 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
72.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:5274% → 74%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
73.6%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
73.7%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Miles Lerch for 6 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
73.7%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
73.2%
Austin Robinson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
74.0%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+12
74.0%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 12 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
74.4%
Chrishopter Robinson run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
74.3%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 5 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
73.9%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
73.5%
Sean Ianno 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
72.9%
Curtis Mikell run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 14
OWN 17
0
73.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+11
73.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
73.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
73.2%
Kam Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+8
74.0%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
74.3%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
74.4%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Kenny HarrisonSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
74.0%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
72.9%
Kristian Stern punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
72.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+9
72.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 9 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
73.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese Triplett, broken up by Mauricio SanchezSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 47 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 4:2073% → 77%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
72.9%
Austin Robinson run for no gain to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+36
71.6%
Cornell Armstrong run for 21 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Emmanuel Johnson) to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
74.0%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Earon Holmes for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
74.0%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to David Glasco IISimilar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+3
73.6%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+4
72.5%
Austin Robinson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
74.3%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Kenny Harrison, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
74.2%
Austin Robinson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+5
74.5%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kam Jones for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+8
73.4%
Cornell Armstrong run for 8 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
75.3%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
75.3%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Marcellus MackSimilar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
74.5%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Earon HolmesSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
77.0%
Sean Ianno 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:5423% → 24%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.8%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
76.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
77.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 13 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
75.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 9 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
75.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Kyle FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5977% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
76.5%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kam Jones for 2 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+70
76.3%
David Glasco II run for 70 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
78.8%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 10 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
78.8%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Josiah Monroe for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 12
OPP 13
-5
78.8%
Robinson middle pass complete to Holmes for 13 yards to the USM0, clock 12:45, PENALTY UTSA illegal shift 5 yards to the USM18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 17
OPP 18
0
78.5%
Chrishopter Robinson run for no gain to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 17
OPP 18
0
78.0%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Marcellus MackSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+35
81.8%
Sean Ianno 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
80.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 5 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+9
80.4%
Jalen Richard run for 9 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
80.2%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
80.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 4 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+15
79.8%
Mullens crossing pass incomplete to Foster, PENALTY UTSA roughing passer (Rogers) 15 yards to the UTSA47, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
78.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-4
78.8%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+4
80.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 4 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
80.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
83.7%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Miles Lerch for 7 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 3
OWN 19
0
84.0%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Sean HeslerSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+6
83.0%
Austin Robinson pass complete to David Morgan II for 6 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
83.9%
David Glasco II run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
83.7%
Chrishopter Robinson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
82.9%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 11 yds to the TexSA 35 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Kenny Harrison) to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.0%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kam Jones for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
84.8%
Cornell Armstrong run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-1
84.9%
Cornell Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+3
83.8%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kam Jones for 3 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
83.4%
Kristian Stern punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:2115% → 22%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
85.0%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+4
84.8%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+44
84.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 44 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
81.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Curtis Mikell for 8 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+6
81.2%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
81.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
81.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
82.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Kyle Sloter, broken up by Triston WadeSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
77.8%
Corey Acosta 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
82.5%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+11
82.4%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.0%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Dasman McCullumSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
83.5%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Kam JonesSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
82.3%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Miles Lerch, broken up by Urell JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+15
81.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 35 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 15 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0622% → 23%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
79.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
78.3%
Mullens slant pass incomplete to Thompson, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Starling) 3 yards to the USM44, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
77.5%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
75.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Sloter for 4 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
75.5%
George Payne run for no gain to the TexSA 47Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-1
77.1%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
88.6%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 8
50
+4
88.6%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
88.1%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Earon HolmesSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
87.2%
Kristian Stern punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:2116% → 59%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
83.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 12 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Kyle Foster, broken up by Triston WadeSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+40
82.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 40 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
40.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 22 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
55.1%
Cornell Armstrong run for 10 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
55.4%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Nate Leonard for no gain to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
55.2%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
53.5%
Robinson deep pass intercepted by Johnson,E at the UTSA49, Johnson,E return to the UTSA41 (Hubble;Jones), PENALTY USM offside defense 5 yards to the UTSA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
54.8%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Cole Hubble, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
52.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 48 yds, downed at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 10 yds · 2:2155% → 58%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.1%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-4
42.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
46.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Curtis Mikell for 1 yd to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
46.1%
TEXASSAN Penalty, offside defense (Nate Gaines) to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
38.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
36.1%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-5
39.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
42.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 2:1548% → 96%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
48.4%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kam Jones for 2 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+8
47.8%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 8 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
49.1%
Austin Robinson pass complete to David Glasco II for 3 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
49.3%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
47.4%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kam Jones for 10 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
53.7%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Josiah MonroeSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
50.8%
Robinson crossing pass incomplete to Lerch, PENALTY USM offside defense (Smith,M) 5 yards to the UTSA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
54.8%
Austin Robinson pass complete to David Morgan II for 9 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
55.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Marcellus Mack) to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+19
51.5%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 19 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
58.7%
Robinson sideline pass incomplete to Mack, PENALTY USM pass interference (Armstrong) 12 yards to the USM18, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
58.7%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+38
95.5%
Sean Ianno 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:02
Sean Ianno 38 yd FG GOOD
+63.9
TD · Q4 7:35
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 22 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)
-41.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:07
Timeout TEXASSAN, clock 00:07
-27.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com