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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUTSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:55 · Kristian Stern punt for 52 yds , Bryce Callahan returns for 25 yds to the TexSA 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: James Hairston kickoff for 65 yds , Aaron Grubb return for 11 yds to the TexSA 11 — RICE win probability +4.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:28: Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 8 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK) — RICE win probability +9.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:36: Austin Robinson pass complete to Kenny Bias for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +8.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 9:36: Sean Ianno kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — RICE win probability +3.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:04: Timeout RICE, clock 04:04 — RICE win probability +5.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 9:23UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snapGo for it27.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.7%average punt
- Q1 4:28UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 48, down 7Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snapGo for it27.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:46RICE 4th & 4 at UTSA 20, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snapGo for it73.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call73.7%−0.175% to makePunt70.8%−3.1average punt
- Q2 11:46UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snapGo for it24.7%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.2%average punt
- Q2 5:25RICE 4th & 10 at UTSA 24, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snapGo for it75.5%−0.628% to convertField goalTheir call76.1%68% to makePunt72.1%−4.0average punt
- Q2 5:25UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it21.1%−1.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q2 2:12RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 43, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snapGo for it76.7%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q3 14:55UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 15, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%average punt
- Q3 8:12UTSA 4th & 24 at UTSA 17, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it14.4%−3.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%average punt
- Q3 2:20UTSA 4th & 22 at UTSA 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it4.5%−2.88% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 43, up 17Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it95.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:04RICE 4th & 1 at UTSA 26, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.7%71% to convertField goal91.9%−0.864% to makePunt89.9%−2.7average punt
- Q4 3:50UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.715% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q4 1:58RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 37, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:23RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.0%97% to makeGo for two72.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:28RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:36UTSA Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.3%97% to makeGo for two9.7%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRICEDrive 1TD14 plays · 80 yds · 5:3772% → 73%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+11
71.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 11 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+34
71.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 34 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
71.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 6 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
71.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 3 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 9:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
72.4%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
72.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 7 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-3
72.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brady Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
72.7%
Kristian Stern punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bryce Callahan at the Rice 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3INT6 plays · 47 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
UTSADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 4:28
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
72.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryce Callahan at the Rice 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5FG14 plays · 71 yds · 5:5273% → 75%
Q1 2:38
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+19
73.4%
Driphus Jackson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Drew Douglas) to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+7
74.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 7 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
RICEDrive 7MISSED FG14 plays · 46 yds · 5:1775% → 76%
Q2 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+13
75.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 13 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
76.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jowan Davis for no gain to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+17
75.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 17 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
76.0%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kenny Bias, broken up by Bryce CallahanSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
76.8%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to David Morgan II, broken up by Jaylon FinnerSimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
77.4%
Kristian Stern punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bryce Callahan at the Rice 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4876% → 77%
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
76.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 7 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-1
76.5%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Brian Price and Richard Burge for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+2
77.0%
James Farrimond punt for 39 yds , Aaron Grubb returns for 2 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10END OF HALF15 plays · 78 yds · 1:0522% → 24%
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
78.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 9 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
78.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Bias for 7 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
77.5%
Tucker Carter sacked by Zach Patt for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+7
78.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 7 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
77.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 6 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
79.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 16 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
77.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Glasco II for 5 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+14
76.1%
Carter pass incomplete to Jones, PENALTY RICE personal foul (HILL, Malcolm) 14 yards to the RICE18, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+12
76.5%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 12 yds to the Rice 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+25
79.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 52 yds , Bryce Callahan returns for 25 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12MISSED FG12 plays · 11 yds · 5:4481% → 80%
Q3 13:56
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+8
80.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Cole Hunt for 8 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+14
80.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to N/A for 14 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
81.2%
JACKSON, Driphu pass complete to POLLARD, D for 4 yards to the UTSA4 (Douglas;Wade), PENALTY RICE personal foul (CARLSON, Nico) 15 yards to the UTSA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
-13
79.8%
Darik Dillard run for 9 yds to the TexSA 13 RICE Penalty, personal foul (Matt Simonette) to the TexSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT6 plays · -14 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-15
81.0%
Glasco II rush for 39 yards to the RICE29 (BAKER, Gabe;POLLARD, Ryan), PENALTY UTSA personal foul (Inskeep) 15 yards to the UTSA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 24
OWN 17
+13
81.6%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kenny Bias for 13 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-15
82.1%
TEXASSAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Scott Inskeep) to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 26
OWN 15
+2
82.5%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 2 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 24
OWN 17
-3
83.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 46 yds , Bryce Callahan returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0783% → 94%
Q3 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
83.5%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jowan Davis for 7 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+46
84.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Robby Wells III for 36 yds to the RICE 20 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Brian King) to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
84.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Darik Dillard for 8 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 8 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 2:20
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
93.0%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Kenny Bias, broken up by V.J. BanksSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-9
93.1%
Austin Robinson sacked by Brian Nordstrom and Grant Peterson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 22
OWN 34
0
93.3%
Kristian Stern punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryce Callahan at the Rice 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0595% → 95%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
-2
94.7%
James Farrimond punt for 40 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD10 plays · 85 yds · 3:225% → 15%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.0%
Austin Robinson pass complete to David Glasco II for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
94.6%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
93.8%
Robinson pass incomplete to Jones, PENALTY RICE offside (PATT, Zach) 5 yards to the RICE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-1
93.6%
Austin Robinson sacked by Brian Nordstrom for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 24Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+24
85.2%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kenny Bias for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18DOWNS12 plays · 49 yds · 5:3287% → 94%
UTSADrive 19PUNT9 plays · 4 yds · 0:078% → 6%
RICEDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5695% → 97%
Q4 1:58
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+1
96.9%
James Farrimond punt for 35 yds , Aaron Grubb returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21FUMBLE6 plays · 57 yds · 0:003% → 5%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.5%
Austin Robinson pass incomplete to Brady Jones, broken up by Julius WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+18
96.6%
Austin Robinson pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 18 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
95.1%
Austin Robinson sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 7 Austin Robinson fumbled, forced by Brian Nordstrom, recovered by Rice Dennis Parks , return for 0 yards RICE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (James Radcliffe) to the Rice 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:28
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 8 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q4 9:36
Austin Robinson pass complete to Kenny Bias for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
-8.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:04
Timeout RICE, clock 04:04
+5.5