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USM

Southern Miss 14 at UTEP 35

UTEP
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:15 · Jay Mattox punt for 51 yds , Casey Martin returns for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Home team on offense+4.6Pregame prior+10.4Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:54: Casey Martin 55 Yd pass from Cole Weeks (Corey Acosta Kick) — USM win probability +16.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:42: Autrey Golden 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +16.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:19: Jameill Showers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +8.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:54: J. Mattox 34 yd FG BLOCKED,blocked by Rakeem Nunez-Roches,Mattox, Jay field goal attempt from 34 blocked, recovered by SOUMISS Armstrong, Cornell at S, (C. Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +11.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. INT · Q4 13:12: Cole Weeks pass intercepted for a TD Trey Brown return for 51 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +12.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 10USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:13USM 4th & 8 at UTEP 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00UTEP 4th & 1 at USM 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:15USM 4th & 5 at USM 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:37UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:10USM 4th & 11 at USM 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:23UTEP 4th & 13 at USM 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:49USM 4th & 18 at USM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:15UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:31USM 4th & 16 at USM 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:41UTEP 4th & 8 at USM 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    72.7%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:27USM 4th & 10 at USM 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:59UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:20USM 4th & 7 at UTEP 31, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:26USM 4th & 2 at UTEP 24, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%−1.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−8.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:56UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 49, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:54UTEP 4th & 8 at USM 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−5.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:45UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:02USM 4th & 10 at USM 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:11UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 28, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:34USM 4th & 10 at UTEP 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:01UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:54USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:42UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:54USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1666% → 66%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
66.4%
Nathan Jeffery run for 11 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
66.3%
Aaron Jones run for 8 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
66.4%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47 Aaron Jones fumbled, forced by Dasman McCullum, recovered by SoMis Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1734% → 34%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
66.1%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for a loss of 1 yard Casey Martin fumbled, recovered by SoMisSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
66.0%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
65.9%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
66.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 3:5966% → 69%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+26
66.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Nathan Jeffery for 26 yds Nathan Jeffery fumbled, recovered by UTEPSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+42
66.5%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 27 yds to the SOUMISS 34 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Adam Williams) to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
66.6%
Aaron Jones run for 7 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
66.6%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Ian HamiltonSimilar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
66.4%
Jameill Showers run for 2 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+1
66.2%
Jameill Showers run for 1 yd to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
66.6%
Nathan Jeffery run for 5 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
66.4%
Jameill Showers run for 3 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.6%
Katrae Ford 1 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:3032% → 31%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
68.0%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
68.2%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+7
68.5%
Cole Weeks pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 7 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
68.2%
Cole Weeks run for 1 yd to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
68.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
68.5%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
69.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2369% → 68%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
68.9%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-4
69.4%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
68.7%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Aaron JonesSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+4
68.4%
Jay Mattox punt for 36 yds , Casey Martin returns for 4 yds to the SoMis 37 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:2331% → 30%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.9%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
69.0%
Ito Smith run for 21 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
68.1%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-10
68.5%
Weeks, Cole pass complete to Smith, Ito for 15 yards to the UTEP39, PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Cox, James) 10 yards to the SOUMISS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 20
OWN 36
-5
69.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 25
OWN 31
0
69.5%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 25
OWN 31
+14
69.9%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 14 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
69.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:4170% → 70%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.8%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
70.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jarrad Shaw for 6 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
70.2%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Cole FreytagSimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
70.2%
Jameill Showers run for 11 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
71.1%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
71.2%
Nathan Jeffery run for 2 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+11
71.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jaquan White for 11 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
71.8%
Jameill Showers sacked by Rakeem Nunez-Roches for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 17
50
+4
71.2%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
71.1%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Aaron JonesSimilar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
70.2%
Jay Mattox punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2829% → 28%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.6%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to James CoxSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+20
71.5%
Cole Weeks run for 20 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
70.0%
Weeks, Cole rush for 1 yard to the SOUMISS41, PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Thomas, Michael) 10 yards to the SOUMISS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+2
71.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
71.1%
Casey Martin pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 18
OWN 32
0
72.1%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 18
OWN 32
0
72.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Damian Payne at the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3072% → 71%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
71.7%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+4
71.8%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
71.6%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Jarrad ShawSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-6
70.8%
Jay Mattox punt for 51 yds , Casey Martin returns for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2928% → 26%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
72.4%
Jalen Richard run for 21 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.8%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
72.1%
Weeks, Cole pass complete to Martin, Casey for 4 yards to the SOUMISS39, PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Triplett, Markese) 10 yards to the SOUMISS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 20
OWN 25
-3
72.7%
Cole Weeks sacked by Roy Robertson-Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 22 Cole Weeks fumbled, recovered by SoMis Cole Weeks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 23
OWN 22
+7
73.5%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Jalen Richard for 7 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+6
74.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 38 yds , Damian Payne returns for 6 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3974% → 74%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
74.4%
Nathan Jeffery run for 1 yd to the UTEP 40Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+15
74.5%
Showers, Jameill pass incomplete to Jones, Aaron, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference (Reed, Kalan) 15 yards to the SOUMISS45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTEP. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.3%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Jarrad ShawSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
75.3%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
74.9%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Jarrad ShawSimilar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
73.6%
Jay Mattox punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:0327% → 26%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
73.3%
Jalen Richard run for 11 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.0%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
73.3%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
74.0%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+50
74.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 50 yds , Damian Payne returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:2874% → 73%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
73.9%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (Jerel Watkins) to the UTEP 13Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+1
73.8%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+17
74.2%
Nathan Jeffery run for 17 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.2%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Aaron JonesSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
74.3%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 1 yd to the UTEP 32Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+5
73.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the UTEP 37Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-2
74.7%
Jameill Showers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 35Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
73.3%
Jay Mattox punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:3026% → 26%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
74.0%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 26 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
70.7%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
70.8%
Cole Weeks run for 3 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
72.0%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+5
73.7%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Jalen Richard for 5 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:1675% → 74%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+27
74.7%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 27 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
76.4%
Showers, Jameill pass complete to Hamilton, Ian for 19 yards to the SOUMISS28, PENALTY UTEP holding (Daniels, Jerome) 10 yards to the UTEP43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
74.2%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Aaron JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0127% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.0%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+16
74.3%
Cole Weeks pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 16 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
71.8%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+11
73.4%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Daythan Davis for 11 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+55
56.4%
Casey Martin 55 Yd pass from Cole Weeks (Corey Acosta Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:0927% → 28%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
73.4%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 43 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
69.2%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
68.8%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 4 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 23
-1
70.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
72.0%
Corey Acosta 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:2477% → 79%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
76.5%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+15
76.6%
Showers, Jameill pass complete to Jones, Aaron for no gain to the UTEP26, PENALTY SOUMISS illegal use of hands (Williams, Adam) 15 yards to the UTEP41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTEP. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
78.5%
Josh Bell run for 1 yd to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-8
79.4%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+15
77.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 15 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
78.5%
Jay Mattox punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:3426% → 24%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
74.5%
Cole Weeks sacked by Trey Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
75.1%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-1
76.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UTEP Jimmy MusgraveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4181% → 90%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
81.2%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
81.3%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Malcolm TrailSimilar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
90.1%
Jameill Showers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0212% → 12%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.1%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Jalen Richard for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
88.1%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
88.0%
Cole Weeks pass intercepted Alvin Jones return for 14 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0091% → 81%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
90.8%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Darrin LaufasaSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
92.3%
Nathan Jeffery run for 2 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
92.3%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Ian HamiltonSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+78
80.5%
J. Mattox 34 yd FG BLOCKED,blocked by Rakeem Nunez-Roches,Mattox, Jay field goal attempt from 34 blocked, recovered by SOUMISS Armstrong, Cornell at S, (C. Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5581% → 83%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
80.6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Cole Rogers for 9 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-1
83.5%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
83.6%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the UTEP 34Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
82.7%
Jay Mattox punt for 41 yds , Casey Martin returns for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25INT TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2822% → 10%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.9%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
75.6%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
79.1%
Cole Weeks pass complete to James Cox for 13 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
77.0%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
78.0%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+51
90.1%
Cole Weeks pass intercepted for a TD Trey Brown return for 51 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26FUMBLE
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:419% → 6%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.1%
Cole Weeks run for 15 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
90.2%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
90.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Cole Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+3
94.0%
Cole Weeks run for 3 yds to the UTEP 49 Cole Weeks fumbled, recovered by UTEPSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 27PUNT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:1296% → 95%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
95.5%
Jameill Showers sacked by Rakeem Nunez-Roches for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 40 UTEP Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jameill Showers) to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 19
OWN 40
0
95.3%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Jarrad ShawSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+2
95.3%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:446% → 1%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
94.5%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Markese Triplett for 31 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
94.1%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+59
98.7%
Nick Gathrite 59 Yd Fumble Return (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:241% → 1%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Cole Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 57 yds, downed at the UTEP 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 4:4499% → 100%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.0%
Nathan Jeffery run for 3 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
99.0%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 13Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+6
99.1%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the UTEP 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.2%
Nathan Jeffery run for 1 yd to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+3
99.2%
Josh Bell run for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+5
99.4%
Nathan Jeffery run for 5 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+13
99.6%
Jay Mattox punt for 44 yds , Casey Martin returns for 13 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 31DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
99.4%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Jalen Richard for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+18
99.4%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Markese Triplett for 18 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+30
99.4%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 30 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
99.4%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to James CoxSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 10
OPP 13
0
99.4%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to James CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.8%
Nathan Jeffery run for 4 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
99.8%
Nathan Jeffery run for 3 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Nathan Jeffery run for 3 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:54
Casey Martin 55 Yd pass from Cole Weeks (Corey Acosta Kick)
-16.9
TD · Q3 11:42
Autrey Golden 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Jay Mattox Kick)
+16.5
INT · Q4 13:12
Cole Weeks pass intercepted for a TD Trey Brown return for 51 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com