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BYU

BYU 27 at Middle Tennessee 7

MTSU
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:04 · Scott Arellano punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior−14.1Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:04: Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 22 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36 — MTSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:24: Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 19 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +11.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:20: Paul Lasike run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +12.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:13: Adam Hine run for 5 yds to the BYU 11 — BYU win probability +5.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10BYU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:03MTSU 4th & 12 at BYU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:03BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:12BYU 4th & 6 at MTSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:44MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:50MTSU 4th & 9 at BYU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:41BYU 4th & 20 at BYU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:44MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:31BYU 4th & 7 at MTSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:04BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:24MTSU 4th & 7 at BYU 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−0.9
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:17BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:17MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:13BYU 4th & 20 at BYU 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−4.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:06MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:16BYU 4th & 15 at BYU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:50MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:37MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:36BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:04MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:24BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:20BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:37BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2473% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
26.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
26.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
26.8%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+5
26.8%
Christian Stewart run for 5 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
26.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 16 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
26.8%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
26.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+37
27.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Colby Pearson for 37 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2MISSED FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 5:3327% → 28%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
27.3%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
27.3%
Austin Grammer run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+15
27.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 15 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
27.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chris Perkins for 4 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
27.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for no gain to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
27.4%
GRAMMER, Austin pass incomplete to CLARKE, Devin, PENALTY BYU offside (KAUFUSI,Bronso) 5 yards to the BYU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+6
27.5%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
27.5%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus HenrySimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
27.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 7 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+7
27.5%
Austin Grammer run for 7 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
27.5%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+4
27.5%
Austin Grammer run for 4 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.5%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Devin ClarkeSimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
27.5%
Austin Grammer run for 3 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
27.5%
Austin Grammer sacked by Teu Kautai for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
28.0%
Cody Clark 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
27.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
27.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
27.9%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan Leslie, broken up by Christian HenrySimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+6
28.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 32 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 6 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4INT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
29.1%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-10
29.0%
WHATLEY, Reggie rush for 3 yards to the BYU48 (PREATOR,Jordan), PENALTY MT holding (JOHNSON, Darius) 10 yards to the MT39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 20
OWN 39
0
28.5%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted Tomasi Laulile return for no gain to the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
27.6%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch Mathews, broken up by Jared SingletarySimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-4
27.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jamaal Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+8
28.0%
Christian Stewart run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+5
28.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
28.9%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
28.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Jordan Parker, broken up by Robertson DanielSimilar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+14
28.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 14 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
29.6%
Austin Grammer run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-6
29.8%
Austin Grammer sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
28.7%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shane TuckerSimilar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
28.5%
Sean O'Kane punt for 32 yds, downed at the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3671% → 72%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
28.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
28.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.5%
Scott Arellano punt for 43 yds, downed at the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
28.3%
Shane Tucker run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
29.0%
Shane Tucker run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 39 Shane Tucker fumbled, forced by Jordan Preator, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
28.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shannon Smith for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
29.7%
A.J. Erdely run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
29.7%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-3
29.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
28.8%
Austin Grammer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
28.2%
Sean O'Kane punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
29.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+9
28.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
28.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 11 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
27.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Keanu Nelson for 19 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
27.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
27.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Keanu Nelson, broken up by Cavellis LuckettSimilar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-10
27.6%
STEWART,Christ pass complete to MATHEWS,Mitch for 19 yards to the MT22 (SHARPE, Chris), PENALTY BYU holding (LAPUAHO,Ului) 10 yards to the BYU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 19
OWN 49
+14
28.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 14 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-15
28.2%
BYU Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 20
OWN 48
0
29.4%
Scott Arellano punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
28.2%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+3
28.3%
Austin Grammer run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
27.8%
Austin Grammer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
27.4%
Sean O'Kane punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
50
+12
26.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 12 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
26.1%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
26.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
26.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-5
27.3%
Christian Stewart sacked by Leighton Gasque for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 40 Christian Stewart fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:1629% → 43%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
29.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 12 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
30.2%
Reggie Whatley run for 5 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
30.3%
Shane Tucker run for no gain to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
31.2%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
31.2%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus HenrySimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
42.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 22 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
36.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-2
35.3%
Christian Stewart sacked by James Roberson for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+7
36.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 7 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
35.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 4 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
34.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Devin Mahina, broken up by Cavellis LuckettSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+2
35.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
36.4%
Scott Arellano punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
40.8%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+9
40.7%
Shane Tucker run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
41.1%
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
42.6%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
43.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-9
43.4%
Austin Grammer sacked by Teu Kautai for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 32 Austin Grammer fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Isaiah Anderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
40.0%
Sean O'Kane punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Devon Blackmon at the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:2061% → 76%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
39.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 9 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+14
37.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 14 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
36.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
36.0%
Mitchell Juergens run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
35.5%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
35.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 7 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
36.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
35.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch Mathews, broken up by T.T. BarberSimilar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
35.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
24.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 19 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
28.0%
GRAMMER, Austin pass incomplete to CLARKE, Devin, PENALTY BYU pass interference (PREATOR,Jordan) 15 yards to the MT34, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
28.6%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
30.4%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
30.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 16 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
31.7%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
31.7%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+1
31.1%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
29.0%
Sean O'Kane punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
26.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 7 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
24.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
25.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
24.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 4 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+8
24.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 8 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
23.8%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+1
24.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 1 yd to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
24.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Skye PoVeySimilar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
26.5%
Scott Arellano punt for 40 yds, downed at the MTnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
27.4%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Terry PettisSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
27.4%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Chris Perkins, broken up by Jordan PreatorSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
26.2%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Terry PettisSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
25.4%
Sean O'Kane punt for 51 yds, downed at the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:2776% → 91%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jamaal WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
24.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch Mathews, broken up by Jared SingletarySimilar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+28
25.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jamaal Williams for 28 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
22.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 10 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
21.4%
STEWART,Christ pass incomplete to LESLIE,Jordan, PENALTY BYU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY MT pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
21.4%
STEWART,Christ pass complete to LESLIE,Jordan for 25 yards to the MT2, QB hurry by RHODES, Steven, PENALTY BYU ineligible downfield on pass (KOROMA,Tejan) 5 yards to the MT32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
21.6%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+22
22.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 22 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
21.4%
Paul Lasike run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.4%
STEWART,Christ pass incomplete to MATHEWS,Mitch, PENALTY MT pass interference (SINGLETARY, J.) 2 yards to the MT2, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
21.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.3%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:2013% → 14%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
13.0%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
13.9%
A.J. Erdely run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
14.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Tyler Barron for 11 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
14.4%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted Jordan Preator return for no gain to the BYU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
9.3%
Adam Hine run for 5 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+5
9.4%
Paul Lasike run for 5 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
9.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch Mathews, broken up by Khari BurkeSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 20
OWN 6
0
9.9%
Scott Arellano punt for 81 yds, downed at the MTnSt 13Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 16
OWN 10
-4
9.7%
Christian Stewart sacked by Cavellis Luckett for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 6Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-6
9.4%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 10 Team fumbled, recovered by BYU BYU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
11.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 11
OWN 12
-7
11.2%
Austin Grammer sacked by Teu Kautai for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+3
10.6%
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
10.6%
Sean O'Kane punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
6.1%
BYU Penalty, false start (Ryker Mathews) to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
6.3%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Kurt Henderson, broken up by James RobersonSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
6.3%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Paul LasikeSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
6.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitchell Juergens, broken up by Shon AkinsSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
6.9%
Scott Arellano punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
8.9%
Reggie Whatley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
8.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chris Perkins for 7 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+7
9.0%
Reggie Whatley run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
9.1%
Reggie Whatley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
9.7%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
9.3%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Terry PettisSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
9.0%
Sean O'Kane punt for 48 yds, downed at the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5094% → 99%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
5.6%
Paul Lasike run for 13 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
5.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 11 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
5.2%
Adam Hine run for 18 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
5.2%
Adam Hine run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
5.2%
Christian Stewart run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+33
5.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Kurt Henderson for 33 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.0%
Christian Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 5 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-2
1.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
1.3%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus HenrySimilar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+16
1.3%
Sean O'Kane punt for 50 yds , Keanu Nelson returns for 16 yds to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
0.9%
Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
0.9%
Nate Carter run for 5 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
0.9%
Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
0.9%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
0.9%
Nate Carter run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
0.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:20
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 4:04
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 22 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q3 9:24
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 19 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com