2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:26 · Logan McPherson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:00: Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 46 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK) — WKU win probability +4.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:47: Mike Mugler kickoff for 61 yds , Carlos Henderson return for 96 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK) — LT win probability +6.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:44: Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK) — LT win probability +13.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:37: Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK) — LT win probability +10.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:40: Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK) — LT win probability +6.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WKU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:14WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it39.2%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%average punt
- Q1 8:29LT 4th & 1 at WKU 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.2%71% to convertField goal61.7%−0.554% to makePunt61.5%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:25WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.4%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.8%average punt
- Q1 5:01WKU 4th & 17 at WKU 6, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snapGo for it35.6%−0.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.2%average punt
- Q1 2:40LT 4th & 9 at WKU 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snapGo for it64.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call64.0%47% to makePunt63.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:42WKU 4th & 6 at LT 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%average punt
- Q2 9:44WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 33, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it20.4%−2.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q2 8:26LT 4th & 10 at LT 32, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snapGo for it78.6%−2.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.0%average punt
- Q2 4:15WKU 4th & 14 at LT 14, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snapGo for it16.7%−2.216% to convertField goalTheir call18.8%84% to makePunt11.4%−7.4average punt
- Q3 4:12WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 37, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 14:09WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 17, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:30LT 4th & 2 at WKU 46, up 49Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goal99.7%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:00WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 33, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:34LT 4th & 6 at WKU 34, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%40% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.147% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:31WKU 4th & 10 at LT 36, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.0%42% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:14LT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.4%97% to makeGo for two60.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:00WKU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.4%97% to makeGo for two39.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:47LT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:44LT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.8%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:37LT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:40LT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:49LT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:12LT Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:09LT Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1INT5 plays · 57 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
LTDrive 2TD5 plays · 74 yds · 1:3156% → 58%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
56.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 5 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+13
56.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 13 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
56.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 8 yds to the WKent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 12:14
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
57.4%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4DOWNS8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4758% → 59%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.1%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Ricardo SinghSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 9
50
+10
57.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 10 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+5
58.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the WKent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 8:25
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+4
58.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 4 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-8
58.8%
Brandon Doughty sacked by Tony Johnson and Terrell Pinson for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 26Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 15
OWN 26
+20
59.3%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 37 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 20 yds to the WKent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6INT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
60.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Terome Grant for 7 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+8
59.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 8 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
60.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 4 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
59.9%
Cody Sokol pass intercepted Daeshawn Bertram return for no gain to the WKent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
60.2%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane Grant, broken up by Adairius BarnesSimilar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 16
-10
60.6%
Brandon Doughty sacked by Houston Bates for a loss of 10 yards to the WKent 6Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 17
OWN 6
+6
60.9%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 35 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 6 yds to the WKent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0162% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD7 plays · 94 yds · 2:4038% → 44%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
61.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 2 yds to the WKent 8Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+19
61.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 19 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+46
56.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 46 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
LTDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
WKUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
LTDrive 14TD6 plays · 84 yds · 2:4064% → 78%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
63.6%
Marcus Gaines run for 2 yds to the LaTch 18 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+32
63.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 32 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
65.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 27 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
78.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
LTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
77.1%
Logan McPherson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FG11 plays · 54 yds · 3:4825% → 26%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
75.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+23
76.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 23 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
73.6%
Brandon Doughty sacked by Kentrell Brice for a loss of 8 yards to the LaTch 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD12 plays · 79 yds · 3:3873% → 92%
Q2 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+5
72.6%
SOKOL, Cody pass incomplete to TURNER, Paul, PENALTY WKU offside 5 yards to the LATECH28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+15
72.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 15 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
74.7%
DIXON,Kenneth rush for no gain to the LATECH43 (GARDNER, Juwan), PENALTY LATECH holding (WIXSON, Kirby) 10 yards to the LATECH33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+14
73.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 14 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
75.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 6 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
92.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19END OF HALF8 plays · 11 yds · 0:1712% → 12%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
87.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 8 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
87.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 3 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
87.9%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Willie McNeal, broken up by Bryson AbrahamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD11 plays · 86 yds · 3:2091% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
91.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
91.5%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 12 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
91.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 18 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+13
91.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 13 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
92.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
98.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5199% → 99%
Q3 11:40
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+5
98.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the WKent 15Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds for a TD WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Kyle Fischer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23INT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 15 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+15
99.1%
Brandon Doughty pass intercepted for a 1ST down Le'Vander Liggins return for no gain to the WKent 40 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the WKent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24FUMBLE3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-10
99.3%
Cody Sokol sacked by T.J. Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the WKent 27 Cody Sokol fumbled, recovered by WKent , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
LTDrive 26TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
WKUDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
LTDrive 28TD9 plays · 69 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q3 2:37
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+20
99.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Terome Grant for 20 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marlon Watts for 9 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Jarred Craft for 6 yds to the WKent 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
99.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 30PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
WKUDrive 31PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:00
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Gaines at the LaTch 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 32DOWNS7 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+21
99.9%
Taylor Burch pass complete to DeJuawn Oliver for 21 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+14
99.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to DeJuawn Oliver for 14 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-1
99.9%
Taylor Burch pass complete to Andy McAlindon for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 33DOWNS9 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:31
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+11
100.0%
Troy Jones pass complete to Antwane Grant for 11 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Troy Jones pass complete to Willie McNeal for no gain to the WKent 45Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Troy Jones pass incomplete to Darmontre Warr, broken up by Roland DunnSimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Troy Jones pass incomplete to Antwane Grant, broken up by Roland DunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 34END OF GAME3 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:29
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+18
100.0%
Dillon Williams run for 3 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:44
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
+13
TD · Q2 0:37
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q3 11:40
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
+6.6