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LT

Louisiana Tech 31 at Southern Miss 20

USM
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:57 · Logan McPherson punt for 31 yds, downed at the SoMis 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior−21.1Home team on offense+1.3Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:14: Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 84 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK), (Kyle Fischer KICK) — LT win probability +11.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:08: Corey Acosta 44 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +8.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: 4th down).
  3. TD · Q3 0:55: Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK) — LT win probability +14.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:31: Corey Acosta 26 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +8.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 7:01: Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK), (Kyle Fischer KICK) — LT win probability +16.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 5 at LT 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:42LT 4th & 6 at LT 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:00LT 4th & 13 at LT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:24USM 4th & 5 at USM 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50LT 4th & 6 at USM 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:50USM 4th & 8 at USM 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:38LT 4th & 24 at LT 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:32USM 4th & 4 at USM 17, up 4
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:57LT 4th & 5 at LT 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:18USM 4th & 20 at LT 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:11LT 4th & 8 at LT 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:08USM 4th & 20 at LT 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−4.0
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−8.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:31USM 4th & 9 at LT 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−13.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:01USM 4th & 15 at USM 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:56USM 4th & 15 at USM 28, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:00USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:14LT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:55LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:01LT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:06LT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:53USM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.2%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
20.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 12 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
20.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 16 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
20.2%
SMITH, Ito rush right for 6 yards to the LATECH41 (DORA,Vontarrius), PENALTY USM holding (FARRIOR, Devin) 10 yards to the USM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+7
20.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
50
+6
20.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 6 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+2
20.2%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
20.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
21.8%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
21.8%
Carlos Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 14Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+5
21.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 5 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
22.0%
Logan McPherson punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:2423% → 25%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
22.9%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
23.0%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+4
23.0%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the LaTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
25.4%
George Payne run for 18 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
24.8%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
24.9%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+10
25.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marlon Watts for 10 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
24.8%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 17Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 14
OWN 17
-8
24.9%
Cody Sokol sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 8 yards to the LaTch 9Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 22
OWN 9
+9
25.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 9 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
25.1%
Logan McPherson punt for 54 yds, downed at the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
27.2%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+2
27.1%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Daythan Davis for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+4
26.9%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
26.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:4171% → 71%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.7%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
28.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
29.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 18 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
28.3%
Tevin King run for 1 yd to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+16
28.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 16 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
27.8%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+32
28.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 20 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Emmanuel Johnson) to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
27.3%
Kenneth Dixon run for 2 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
27.3%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+5
27.8%
SOKOL, Cody middle pass incomplete to TAYLOR, Trent, PENALTY USM holding (COTTON, J.) 5 yards to the USM5, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.3%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
27.3%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.1%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter LeeSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
29.1%
Kyle Fischer 24 yd FG GOOD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
29.7%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
29.6%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+23
29.1%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Markese Triplett for 23 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
29.9%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
30.0%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Markese Triplett for 6 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-5
30.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
29.6%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
29.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
32.1%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Kenneth DixonSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+39
32.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marlon Watts for 39 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
30.3%
SOKOL, Cody rush for 11 yards to the USM29, out-of-bounds, PENALTY LATECH holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 20
50
-4
31.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 46Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 24
OWN 46
0
31.6%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 24
OWN 46
0
32.1%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 24
OWN 46
+1
32.9%
Logan McPherson punt for 44 yds , Casey Martin returns for 1 yd to the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
33.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
33.6%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
32.9%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
32.3%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
34.5%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-5
34.5%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+9
35.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 9 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
34.0%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter Lee, broken up by Picasso Nelson Jr.Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
35.3%
Logan McPherson punt for 31 yds, downed at the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 4:1337% → 40%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
37.1%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-1
38.3%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
37.3%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
38.4%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Vontarrius DoraSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-2
37.7%
George Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+23
36.3%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Markese Triplett for 23 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
39.2%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 10 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-18
39.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the LaTch 46Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 28
OPP 46
0
41.8%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Daythan DavisSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 28
OPP 46
+8
40.3%
Cole Weeks pass complete to George Payne for 8 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 20
OPP 38
0
40.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FUMBLE
11 plays · 61 yds · 0:4758% → 59%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
42.0%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter Lee, broken up by Troy JeterSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+9
42.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marlon Watts for 9 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+1
42.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
41.8%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+16
43.4%
SOKOL, Cody deep pass incomplete to GAINES, Marcus, PENALTY USM pass interference (ARMSTRONG, C.) 16 yards to the LATECH37, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.5%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
44.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marlon Watts for 14 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
41.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 12 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
40.8%
Kenneth Dixon run for 5 yds to the SoMis 31 Kenneth Dixon fumbled, forced by Troy Jeter, recovered by SoMis Jacorius Cotton , return for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · -21 yds · 0:1245% → 44%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
44.6%
Cole Weeks sacked by Houston Bates for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 17
OWN 24
-13
43.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 30
OWN 11
-1
44.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4658% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
42.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (NA) to the LaTch 16Similar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+84
30.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 84 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK), (Kyle Fischer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
34.3%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
32.9%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Kentrell BriceSimilar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
31.7%
Cole Weeks pass intercepted Adairius Barnes return for 5 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.8%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
30.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 2 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
30.0%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Kenneth DixonSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
32.1%
Logan McPherson punt for 36 yds, downed at the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:0732% → 41%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
32.2%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 4 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
32.4%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
31.3%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 10 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
34.5%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 22 yds to the SOUMISS 38 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction (NA) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
35.4%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
35.2%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+19
34.4%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Markese Triplett for 19 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
36.5%
George Payne run for no gain to the LaTch 17Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-7
36.5%
Cole Weeks sacked by Tony Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 24Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 17
OPP 24
-3
32.5%
Cole Weeks run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 20
OPP 27
+44
40.6%
Corey Acosta 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1362% → 81%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.5%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
37.3%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
38.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
35.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 7 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
34.3%
Kenneth Dixon run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
34.4%
Kenneth Dixon run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
34.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
33.1%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Marlon WattsSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
33.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 10 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
32.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marlon Watts for no gain to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
33.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 11 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
32.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 11 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
32.7%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 5Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 6:2425% → 35%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
24.9%
George Payne run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+34
24.5%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 34 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.2%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 48 Jalen Richard fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jalen Richard , return for no gain to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-2
24.3%
Cole Weeks sacked by Mitch Villemez for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+15
22.6%
WEEKS, Cole slant pass incomplete to TRIPLETT, M., PENALTY LATECH pass interference (BARNES,Adairius) 15 yards to the LATECH39, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
27.3%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
29.1%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+7
27.2%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Casey Martin for 7 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
29.1%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Markese Triplett for 19 yds to the LaTch 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
29.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
29.1%
Cole Weeks sacked by Mitch Villemez for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
26.0%
Cole Weeks sacked by Kentrell Brice for a loss of 10 yards to the LaTch 9 Cole Weeks fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jalen Richard , return for 0 yards , return for 11 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
34.7%
Corey Acosta 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:3073% → 93%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
27.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for no gain to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+19
27.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 19 yds Paul Turner fumbled, forced by Jomez Applewhite, recovered by LaTch Paul Turner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
23.8%
Kenneth Dixon run for 2 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+28
24.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 28 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
7.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK), (Kyle Fischer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
9.8%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Marquise Ricard, broken up by Xavier WoodsSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
9.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Brandon Farmer) to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
9.3%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
8.9%
Cole Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 15
OWN 21
+22
8.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 38 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 22 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:1893% → 99%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
7.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
6.9%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+31
7.5%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 31 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
4.5%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:132% → 7%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.8%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
1.8%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Markese Triplett for 24 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
1.9%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
2.0%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
1.9%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Jalen Richard for 9 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
2.0%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 23 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
7.0%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Michael Thomas for 16 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:4897% → 97%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
3.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for 19 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
3.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
2.8%
Kenneth Dixon run for 5 yds to the SoMis 0 Kenneth Dixon fumbled, forced by Alan Howze, recovered by SoMisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
2.9%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 13 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
3.0%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Bryson AbrahamSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
3.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Jerry Harris) to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
2.8%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Jarell AaronSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
2.7%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to George PayneSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+25
2.6%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 25 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
3.5%
Cole Weeks pass intercepted Bryson Abraham return for no gain to the LaTch 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 17Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 11
OWN 17
-1
2.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:01
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK), (Kyle Fischer KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 0:55
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q3 14:14
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 84 yds for a TD, (Kyle Fischer KICK), (Kyle Fischer KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com