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USM

Southern Miss 30 at North Texas 20

UNT
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:43 · Eric Keena punt for 40 yds , Casey Martin returns for 9 yds to the SoMis 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+21.0Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Corey Acosta 27 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +8.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:11: George Payne run for 5 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +17.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:08: Reggie Pegram run for 27 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +20.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:52: Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +23.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:01: Corey Acosta 38 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +7.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 1 at USM 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.4%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:43UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:24USM 4th & 5 at UNT 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:14UNT 4th & 8 at USM 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:14USM 4th & 1 at USM 26, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:37UNT 4th & 7 at USM 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 9 at UNT 47, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:52UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−2.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:01USM 4th & 9 at UNT 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−9.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:07UNT 4th & 3 at USM 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.5
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−9.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:50USM 4th & 26 at USM 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−4.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:20UNT 4th & 28 at UNT 49, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:43USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:29UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:11USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:08UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:52USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.2%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 13 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
72.2%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
72.2%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
72.2%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
72.2%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
72.2%
Blake Macek punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5228% → 30%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by James JonesSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
72.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 16 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
71.9%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
71.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+17
71.9%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Sir Calvin Wallace) to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
70.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 40 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.6%
Reggie Pegram run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
70.7%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 5 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
70.6%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darvin KidsySimilar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
70.5%
Eric Keena punt for 40 yds , Casey Martin returns for 9 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
69.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 12 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
69.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Farrior) to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+12
70.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 12 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
69.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 5 yds Jalen Richard fumbled, forced by Derek Akunne,Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+9
69.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 9 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
69.7%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Kishawn McClain return for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
69.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
69.1%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
69.0%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
69.2%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos Harris, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
68.9%
Eric Keena punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:1232% → 36%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
67.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+16
67.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Austin Orr) to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
66.9%
Nick Mullens run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
50
0
66.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
50
+14
66.7%
Nick Mullens run for 14 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
66.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
66.7%
George Payne run for 7 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+3
66.7%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
66.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 1 yd to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+4
66.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 4 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
66.7%
Nick Mullens run for no gain to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
63.6%
Corey Acosta 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5563% → 70%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.1%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.3%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for no gain to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+45
63.3%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 45 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
64.1%
Carlos Harris run for 18 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.9%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8INT
10 plays · 64 yds · 0:0033% → 35%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
66.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+9
66.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 9 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
66.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 26 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
65.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
65.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jalen Richard, broken up by Chad PolkSimilar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+11
65.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 11 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.3%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
65.3%
Nick Mullens run for 7 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
65.3%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted, touchback. Lairamie Lee return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:0966% → 69%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
66.3%
Andrew McNulty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
66.2%
Reggie Pegram run for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+36
65.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 36 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
68.5%
Reggie Pegram run for 6 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+17
68.5%
Reggie Pegram run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Dylan Bradley) to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
69.3%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 3 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
69.3%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darvin Kidsy, broken up by Trae CollinsSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-1
68.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
69.3%
Trevor Moore 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
65.5%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
65.4%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+1
65.5%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
66.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 34 yds, downed at the NoTex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:2570% → 71%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
69.5%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 15 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
70.5%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Darius Terrell for 19 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
71.3%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 7 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Alan Howze) to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.3%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for no gain to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
71.3%
Andrew McNulty run for 2 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
70.0%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Antoinne Jimmerson, broken up by Brian AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
71.1%
Trevor Moore 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 1:3729% → 42%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
71.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
71.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 15 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
71.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 5 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
70.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 6 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
69.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 11 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
68.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+32
68.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 32 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.8%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
58.5%
Corey Acosta 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:4938% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.5%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
62.6%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
61.8%
Ito Smith run for 19 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
59.5%
Nick Mullens sacked by Alexander Lincoln for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+6
61.7%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
60.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jalen Richard, broken up by Derek AkunneSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 47
+11
62.6%
Tyler Sarrazin run for 11 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
59.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
59.5%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+16
59.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 16 yds to the NoTex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
58.4%
George Payne run for 8 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
58.4%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.7%
George Payne run for 5 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:0346% → 70%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
45.9%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-1
46.6%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+27
45.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 27 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
49.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kalan Reed) to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
51.3%
Reggie Pegram run for no gain to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
51.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darvin KidsySimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+12
49.7%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 12 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
70.3%
Reggie Pegram run for 27 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
9 plays · 96 yds · 4:1638% → 67%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
62.1%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+38
61.4%
Ito Smith run for 38 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
57.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+14
56.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 14 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
55.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
55.3%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+8
56.9%
George Payne run for 8 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
33.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
41.7%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 11 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.9%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for no gain to the NoTex 36Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
42.6%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Antoinne JimmersonSimilar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
40.6%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+27
39.7%
Eric Keena punt for 40 yds , Casey Martin returns for 27 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3067% → 75%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
32.8%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+8
31.3%
George Payne run for 8 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
30.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Rashod Hill) to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+7
31.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 7 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+9
30.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 9 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.5%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
30.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 1 yd to the NoTex 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
31.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Chad DavisSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
24.7%
Corey Acosta 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:5425% → 19%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.5%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
24.7%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darius TerrellSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+21
23.3%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 21 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
27.3%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Antoinne Jimmerson for 11 yds to the NORTHTEXAS 41 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Antonio Johnson) to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 9
OWN 49
0
27.4%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Reggie PegramSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+15
26.8%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Darius Terrell for 15 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
28.7%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 13 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
31.9%
Andrew McNulty run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
31.9%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darius TerrellSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+6
28.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 6 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
18.9%
Trevor Moore 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 6 yds · 4:1784% → 90%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
16.1%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
16.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise Ricard, broken up by Chad PolkSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
17.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 10 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
15.8%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+8
15.9%
Jalen Richard run for 8 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
14.8%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-29
14.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 29 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 33
OWN 19
+7
17.4%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 26
OWN 26
+7
10.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for 7 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 1:1810% → 4%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
9.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, roughing passer (Rakeem Nunez-Roches) to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
11.5%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darius TerrellSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
11.2%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 8 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+8
12.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 8 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
14.1%
Andrew McNulty sacked by Dasman McCullum for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 18
OPP 41
0
6.0%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 18
OPP 41
-10
5.6%
Dajon Williams sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 28
OWN 49
+23
4.1%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carl Caldwell for 23 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2694% → 97%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
5.7%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
5.6%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-3
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:52
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)
-23.9
TD · Q3 6:08
Reggie Pegram run for 27 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+20.6
TD · Q3 9:11
George Payne run for 5 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)
-17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com