Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 21 at UTSA 9

UTSA
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:45 · Blake Bogenschutz run for 4 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+21.9Home team on offense+2.1Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:20: Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +13.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:57: Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +22.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:57: Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMex 18 — UNM win probability +9.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:37: Jhurell Pressley run for 77 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +26.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:28: Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyler Duncan for 4 yds to the NMex 45 — UNM win probability +9.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UNM 4th & 1 at UTSA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:13UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:08UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:33UTSA 4th & 23 at UNM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 6 at UTSA 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:02UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:44UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:45UTSA 4th & 2 at UNM 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−0.6
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:36UTSA 4th & 1 at UNM 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    60% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:20UTSA 4th & 22 at UTSA 13, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:40UNM 4th & 8 at UTSA 49, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 3 at UNM 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−1.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−17.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:07UNM 4th & 9 at UTSA 40, up 5
    Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−1.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:06UTSA 4th & 8 at UNM 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:17UNM 4th & 2 at UTSA 28, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 11:23UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:20UNM Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:57UNM Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:37UNM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
86.4%
Cole Gautsche run for 19 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
86.4%
Jeric Magnant run for 2 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
86.4%
Cole Gautsche pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 8 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
86.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
86.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for no gain to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+7
86.4%
Cole Gautsche run for 7 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
86.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.4%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.4%
Tucker Carter run for 7 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
85.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Jadon BoatrightSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
85.3%
Kristian Stern punt for 44 yds , Chris Davis returns for no gain to the NMex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:3615% → 15%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
84.9%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+15
84.8%
Gautsche middle pass incomplete to White,R, QB hurry by Rogers, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Wade) 15 yards to the UNM31, 1ST DOWN UNM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
84.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
84.7%
Cole Gautsche run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
84.7%
Cole Gautsche pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 7 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
84.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
84.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 3
50
-1
84.5%
Crusoe Gongbay run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 49Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
84.7%
Zack Rogers punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:5784% → 82%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
83.7%
Tucker Carter run for 3 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
84.0%
Tucker Carter run for 7 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
84.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
50
+12
84.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 12 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
84.3%
Tucker Carter sacked by Donnie White for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+24
84.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 24 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
84.4%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Josh Walker) to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
84.3%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+2
84.2%
Tucker Carter run for 2 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 13
OPP 23
-10
83.9%
Tucker Carter sacked by Tevin Newman for a loss of 10 yards to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 23
OPP 33
+50
81.9%
Sean Ianno 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:3319% → 19%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
81.3%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Carlos Wiggins, broken up by Crosby Adams IIISimilar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
81.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+11
81.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 11 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
80.4%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
80.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+13
80.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jeric Magnant for 13 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
80.2%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
80.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Marquis Bundy for 6 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-2
80.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jhurell Pressley for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
80.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.7%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
80.7%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Cole HubbleSimilar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
80.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 6 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
80.2%
Kristian Stern punt for 36 yds, downed at the NMex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Jeric Magnant pass incomplete to Tyler Duncan, broken up by Triston WadeSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
78.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+3
79.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+5
79.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
78.3%
Zack Rogers punt for 38 yds, downed at the TexSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8FG
17 plays · 80 yds · 7:2280% → 79%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
79.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+6
79.8%
David Glasco II run for 6 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
79.8%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Team for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+1
79.4%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+25
78.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kam Jones for 25 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
80.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 13 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
81.1%
Bogenschutz deep pass incomplete to Bias, PENALTY UNM pass interference (Jones,C) 15 yards to the UNM23, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
81.6%
David Glasco II run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+10
80.9%
David Glasco II run for 10 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+2
81.0%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+4
77.2%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 4 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
79.0%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
79.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
78.3%
Team run for no gain to the NMex 2 Team fumbled, recovered by TexSA Blake BogenschutzSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+20
79.1%
Sean Ianno 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
77.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyler Duncan for 4 yds to the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3778% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Team run for no gain to the TexSA 24 Team fumbled, recovered by TexSA Blake BogenschutzSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
77.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kam Jones for 5 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
77.1%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 9 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
78.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 21 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
79.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
79.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kam Jones for 8 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
80.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 23 yds to the NMex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.0%
Jarveon Williams 6 Yd Run (Sean Ianno PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0315% → 30%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
84.0%
Carlos Wiggins run for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
84.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+61
83.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 61 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.2%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.4%
Brandon Armstrong run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-8
75.4%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by William Udeh and Brett Bowers for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-6
73.9%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Paytron Hightower for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 13Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+3
73.4%
Kristian Stern punt for 41 yds , Chris Davis returns for 3 yds to the NMex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-3
71.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+5
73.7%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 5 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+4
73.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 46 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for 4 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
73.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+9
73.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 9 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
74.0%
David Glasco II run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 18Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+8
73.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass intercepted Tevin Newman return for 8 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2933% → 56%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
66.7%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 7 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
66.7%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 2 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
68.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
66.7%
Carlos Wiggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 9Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Marquis BundySimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
43.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 63 yds · 1:5751% → 50%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
51.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Cole Hubble for 20 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
54.5%
David Glasco II run for 8 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
56.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Glasco IISimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+28
55.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 28 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
58.2%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
55.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kenny Bias for no gain to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+5
53.2%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 5 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 14
0
50.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Cole Hubble, broken up by William UdehSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:2657% → 63%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
42.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+41
42.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to David Anaya for 41 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
38.4%
David Anaya run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-6
38.4%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Jens Jeters for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+6
37.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 6 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
37.5%
Zack Rogers punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:2645% → 46%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
44.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Glasco IISimilar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-3
44.2%
Brandon Armstrong run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 4Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 13
OWN 4
+46
42.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to N/A for 56 yds to the TEXASSAN 40 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, illegal block (Aaron Grubb) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
50
+2
50.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 2 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
51.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kenny HarrisonSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
49.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Marcellus MackSimilar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
45.7%
Kristian Stern punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis at the NMex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 1:2064% → 91%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
36.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+5
35.2%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
8.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 77 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0013% → 16%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.1%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to David Glasco II, broken up by Kimmie CarsonSimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
12.9%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 21 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
15.0%
Tucker Carter run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 35 Tucker Carter fumbled, forced by Donnie White, recovered by TexSA David Glasco IISimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 21
OWN 35
+21
12.9%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 21 yds to the TEXASSAN 44 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, sideline interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
16.0%
Tucker Carter pass intercepted Markel Byrd return for 21 yds to the NMex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21END OF GAME
16 plays · 28 yds · 4:1194% → 98%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
6.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyler Duncan for 4 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
6.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
6.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
6.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 10 yds to the NMex 38 NEW MEXICO Penalty, clipping (Jamal Price) to the NMex 47Similar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+4
6.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+1
4.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+12
4.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 12 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
4.0%
David Anaya run for 2 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
3.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+1
2.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+7
2.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 7 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-6
2.4%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 16
OPP 27
-4
2.5%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:37
Jhurell Pressley run for 77 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
-26.6
TD · Q3 1:57
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
-22.9
TD · Q3 9:20
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com