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USM

Southern Miss 31 at Middle Tennessee 37

MTSU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:27 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:03: Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 59 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:12: Shane Tucker run for 44 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:26: Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 33 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:41: Reggie Whatley run for 64 yds for a TD, (Demetrius Frazier failed ) — MTSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:27: Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 8 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +13.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 23 at USM 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36MTSU 4th & 6 at USM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 9, up 3
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:38USM 4th & 7 at MTSU 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:23USM 4th & 8 at MTSU 8, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:30MTSU 4th & 2 at USM 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:26USM 4th & 4 at USM 21, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:10MTSU 4th & 8 at USM 37, up 12
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:33USM 4th & 4 at MTSU 42, down 12
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:45MTSU 4th & 8 at USM 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 2:43MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:03MTSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:12MTSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:26MTSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:27USM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
85.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
85.6%
Kyle Foster run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-15
85.6%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to MARTIN, Casey for 26 yards to the MT39 (KELLY, John), PENALTY USM pass interference (THOMAS, Michael) 15 yards to the USM20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 20
0
85.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese Triplett, broken up by Alex DaleSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 20
0
85.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 7 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4385% → 85%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
85.3%
Austin Grammer run for no gain to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
85.3%
Austin Grammer run for no gain to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+4
85.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 4 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
84.9%
Cody Clark 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3INT
15 plays · 54 yds · 2:1515% → 16%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
84.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36 Ito Smith fumbled, forced by T.T. Barber, recovered by SoMis Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
84.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 9 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
84.7%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 5
50
+4
84.7%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
84.2%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
84.2%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+12
84.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 12 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
84.1%
George Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+9
84.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+8
84.2%
George Payne run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
84.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
84.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tez Parks for 1 yd Tez Parks fumbled, forced by Cavellis Luckett, recovered by SoMis N/ASimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+1
84.2%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Kevin Byard return for 1 yd to the MTnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
83.7%
Austin Grammer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+8
83.7%
Jordan Parker run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 9
0
83.5%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
83.4%
Zachary Lopez punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4817% → 18%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
82.8%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+11
82.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 11 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
82.8%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
82.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
83.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise Ricard, broken up by Alex DaleSimilar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
81.8%
Corey Acosta 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:5583% → 85%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
83.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 17 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
83.3%
Shane Tucker pass complete to Austin Grammer for 12 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
83.3%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:2116% → 20%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
84.3%
George Payne run for 8 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+6
83.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
84.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 5 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+15
83.7%
George Payne run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
83.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
83.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to George PayneSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+30
83.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 30 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
83.3%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.9%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.3%
George Payne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Corey Acosta BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
85.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 59 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FUMBLE
18 plays · 56 yds · 1:5215% → 17%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
84.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Christian Henry and Jimal McBride for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+5
84.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
84.8%
TEAM rush for loss of 13 yards to the USM20, fumble by TEAM recovered by USM RICARD, M. at USM20, PENALTY MT offside 5 yards to the USM38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-10
84.2%
PAYNE, George rush for 6 yards to the USM44 (WALKER, Xavier), PENALTY USM holding (BATES, Oliver) 10 yards to the USM28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+12
84.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 12 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
83.9%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
83.6%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
83.6%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
50
-7
83.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Patrick McNeil for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+15
84.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 15 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
83.3%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
83.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 9 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+1
82.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
82.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise Ricard, broken up by Shon AkinsSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
82.9%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+13
83.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds Michael Thomas fumbled, forced by Xavier Walker, recovered by MTnSt Christian HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:3184% → 90%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
83.9%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+33
83.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
50
+6
85.8%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+44
90.2%
Shane Tucker run for 44 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 2:4911% → 12%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
88.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 13 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
88.1%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
88.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Kyle FosterSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+18
88.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 18 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
87.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+16
87.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 16 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
87.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, IS (4 Yards) to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
87.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese Triplett, broken up by Kevin ByardSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
88.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by Leighton GasqueSimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
87.9%
Corey Acosta 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 2:2389% → 89%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
89.2%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
89.5%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+11
89.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chris Perkins for 11 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
89.7%
Reggie Whatley run for 7 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
89.8%
Reggie Whatley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-10
89.6%
WHATLEY, Reggie rush for loss of 1 yard to the USM44 (NELSON, Picasso), PENALTY MT holding (EADS, William) 10 yards to the MT47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+18
89.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 18 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
89.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 14 yds to the SoMis 21 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (Chris Perkins) to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 6
OPP 31
+5
89.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 5 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+43
89.4%
Cody Clark 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13FUMBLE
14 plays · 64 yds · 2:3089% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
88.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 18 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
89.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 12 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
89.2%
Reggie Whatley run for 15 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
89.2%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-15
89.2%
PARKER, Jordan rush for 8 yards to the USM23 (HOWZE, Alan), PENALTY MT personal foul (ANDERSON, I.) 15 yards to the USM46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 26
OPP 46
+10
88.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 10 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+14
89.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 14 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+3
89.6%
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
90.4%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
90.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Jonah Sells) to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+10
90.1%
Austin Grammer run for 10 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-1
90.1%
Austin Grammer sacked by Dasman McCullum for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 11 Austin Grammer fumbled, recovered by SoMis Trae Collins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
88.9%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
88.7%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
89.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese Triplett, broken up by Cavellis LuckettSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+40
89.3%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 40 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
90.4%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+10
90.4%
Austin Grammer run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
90.5%
Jordan Parker run for 9 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
90.7%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.6%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
90.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chris Perkins for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
90.2%
Austin Grammer run for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
89.8%
Zachary Lopez punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
90.4%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+12
89.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 12 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
89.6%
Nick Mullens run for 9 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
89.0%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
89.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 7 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-5
88.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Jerry Harris) to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
89.1%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
89.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to George PayneSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
89.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 35 yds, downed at the MTnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 6:0592% → 98%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
91.7%
Reggie Whatley run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
91.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Terry PettisSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+11
91.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 11 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
91.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+12
91.9%
Austin Grammer run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
91.9%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
92.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
92.8%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
93.2%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+18
93.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 18 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
93.3%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+1
93.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+33
98.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 33 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:193% → 5%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+19
97.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 19 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
96.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 10 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
96.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 12 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+35
96.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 35 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
96.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Oliver Bates) to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+4
96.4%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
96.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+17
94.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Mullens failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2696% → 99%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.7%
Reggie Whatley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
95.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shannon Smith for 9 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
98.6%
Reggie Whatley run for 64 yds for a TD, (Demetrius Frazier failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:323% → 5%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
97.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 17 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.1%
Nick Mullens run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+16
97.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 16 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
97.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 19 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
94.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Mullens failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:2496% → 98%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
96.2%
Reggie Whatley run for no gain to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
96.2%
Reggie Whatley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+39
96.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 39 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.1%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+6
97.1%
Jordan Parker run for 6 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
97.1%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
97.1%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-2
98.0%
Reggie Whatley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
98.3%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Jeremiah BrysonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 2:132% → 15%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 7 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+13
98.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+8
98.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 8 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
98.1%
Nick Mullens run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+7
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 7 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
98.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 7 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Kyle FosterSimilar
Q4 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 8 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:27
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 8 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q4 12:26
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 33 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 5:12
Shane Tucker run for 44 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com