Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 10 at Florida International 38

FIU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 2, 2014 · FIU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFUMBLETDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:28 · Jose Laphitzondo punt for 47 yds , Lucky Whitehead returns for 21 yds to the FlAtl 41 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kamrin Solomon) to the FlAtl 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior−7.1Home team on offense+8.9Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:35: Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +8.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:29: Jay Warren run for 31 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +9.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q3 11:18: Austin Taylor 37 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +6.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q3 3:39: Jay Warren run for 3 yds Jay Warren fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Richard Leonard , return for 100 yds for a TD (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +16.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:23: Alex McGough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:21FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28FAU 4th & 7 at FIU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07FAU 4th & 10 at FIU 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:19FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:35FIU 4th & 1 at FAU 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:48FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:46FIU 4th & 10 at FAU 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:18FIU 4th & 3 at FAU 20, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%−0.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−7.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:13FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:48FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:13FAU 4th & 7 at FIU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:28FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:27FAU 4th & 13 at FAU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:44FIU 4th & 14 at FIU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:45FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 35, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:23FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:50FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:35FIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:29FAU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:23FIU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:58FIU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2269% → 68%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.2%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
31.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 3 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
31.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 7 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
31.8%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
32.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
32.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Tony MooreSimilar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+9
32.3%
Dalton Schomp punt for 39 yds , Clinton Taylor returns for 9 yds to the FlaIn 34 Clinton Taylor fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Alex DeleonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5268% → 67%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
31.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson Stoshak, broken up by Richard LeonardSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+22
31.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 22 yds to the FlaIn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
32.1%
Tony Moore run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
32.1%
Tony Moore run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 9Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
32.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Michael Harrop, broken up by Richard LeonardSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
32.6%
Greg Joseph 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:1033% → 36%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
32.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 6 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
33.4%
Alex Gardner run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
33.5%
Alex McGough run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+3
33.8%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
33.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 13 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
34.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 9 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
36.0%
Alex Gardner run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:2365% → 64%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
35.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 11 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
35.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 7 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
34.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+10
35.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 10 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
35.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Alex DeleonSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
35.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
35.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
36.2%
Ryan Rickel punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlaIn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:4836% → 38%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
36.0%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (Lamarq Caldwell) to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
36.3%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 2Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
36.2%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (Chris Flaig) to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+20
36.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Ya'Keem Griner for 20 yds to the FlaIn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
37.0%
Alex Gardner run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
37.4%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Fred PorterSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+7
37.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 7 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
37.7%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
38.2%
Anthon Samuel run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
38.4%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Glenn ColemanSimilar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
37.7%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 50 yds, fair catch by D'Joun Smith at the FlAtl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0262% → 60%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
38.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 3 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+2
38.7%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+5
39.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jay Warren for 5 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
39.4%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
39.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Richard LeonardSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-5
40.1%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Denzell Perine for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 18 Jaquez Johnson fumbled, forced by Denzell Perine, recovered by FlaIn Lars Koht , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0541% → 52%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
41.4%
Anthon Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+5
42.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Ya'Keem Griner for 5 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+12
41.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 12 yds to the FlAtl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.6%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Lamarq CaldwellSimilar
Q2 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.7%
Anthon Samuel run for no gain to the FlAtl 2Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
43.4%
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.6%
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:5150% → 59%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
50.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 13 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
50.7%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offside Defense (Marques Cheeks) to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+31
50.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 31 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
50.7%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offside Defense (Leonard Washington) to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+31
41.0%
Jay Warren run for 31 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2344% → 44%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
44.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+6
44.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 6 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
45.1%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Alex GardnerSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
44.3%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:2956% → 54%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
44.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Nate Terry for 20 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
43.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson Stoshak, broken up by Giovani FrancoisSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
43.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 15 yds to the FlaIn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
43.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kamrin SolomonSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+14
45.6%
Jaquez Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 19 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Jordan Davis) to the FlaIn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
45.6%
Jay Warren run for no gain to the FlaIn 9 Jay Warren fumbled, forced by Michael Wakefield, recovered by FlaIn Davison ColimonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT
15 plays · 50 yds · 5:0247% → 50%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
47.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 7 yds to the FlaIn 16Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+1
48.1%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 17Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+18
47.5%
Alex McGough run for 18 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
49.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 9 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
51.0%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.3%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
52.0%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Glenn Coleman, broken up by D'Joun SmithSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+13
51.1%
Alex McGough run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
53.6%
Alex Gardner run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 14
OPP 45
-5
52.6%
Alex McGough sacked by Robinson Eugene for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 19
50
+9
50.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 9 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
50.1%
Chris Ayers punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Lucky Whitehead at the FlAtl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3047% → 48%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
53.4%
Jay Warren run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+2
52.4%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:2452% → 61%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
51.5%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
52.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 4 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
52.0%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
53.4%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
50
+23
54.1%
Alex Gardner run for 23 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
55.1%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+6
55.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Fred Porter for 6 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
54.7%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Jonnu Smith, broken up by Sharrod NeasmanSimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
60.9%
Austin Taylor 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5441% → 38%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
59.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson Stoshak, broken up by Richard LeonardSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
59.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 4 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
60.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Alex DeleonSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
62.0%
Dalton Schomp punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2262% → 61%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
61.5%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Glenn ColemanSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
61.4%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Glenn ColemanSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
60.2%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Jonnu SmithSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
61.3%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:2739% → 38%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
60.6%
Johnson, Jaquez pass incomplete to Stoshak, Jenson (Leonard, Richard), PENALTY FLAATLANTC holding (DeBoer, Dillon) 10 yards to the FLAATLANTC12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+38
61.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 38 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
50
+3
57.7%
Lucky Whitehead run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
57.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Alex DeleonSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
58.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jay WarrenSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
61.7%
Ryan Rickel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Richard Leonard at the FlaIn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3467% → 66%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
66.6%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
66.8%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
66.3%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+21
65.5%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 47 yds , Lucky Whitehead returns for 21 yds to the FlAtl 41 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kamrin Solomon) to the FlAtl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:4139% → 23%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
60.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for 17 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
59.5%
Jay Warren run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
59.8%
Johnson, Jaquez pass incomplete to Stoshak, Jenson, PENALTY FLAINTL pass interference (Leonard, Richard) 15 yards to the FLAINTL23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLAATLANTC. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
58.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
58.4%
Jay Warren run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 14Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+10
60.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 10 yds to the FlaIn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+100
77.3%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds Jay Warren fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Richard Leonard , return for 100 yds for a TD (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:4517% → 15%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
83.1%
Jaquez Johnson run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
83.0%
Johnson, Jaquez pass incomplete to Dukes, William, PENALTY FLAATLANTC illegal block (Russell, Anthony) 10 yards to the FLAATLANTC11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+2
83.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 18
OWN 13
0
84.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky Whitehead, broken up by Randy HarveySimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+5
84.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jeremy Gaskins for 5 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+5
85.3%
Dalton Schomp punt for 44 yds , Richard Leonard returns for 5 yds to the FlaIn 23 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the FlaIn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1690% → 89%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
89.6%
Alex Gardner run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-8
90.5%
Alex McGough sacked by Robinson Eugene for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 14
OWN 29
0
89.6%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Glenn ColemanSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 14
OWN 29
0
88.9%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 40 yds, downed at the FlAtl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21INT
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:5414% → 14%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
86.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
86.4%
Tony Moore run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
86.7%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Lars Koht) to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 5
OWN 47
0
86.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+13
86.6%
Jaquez Johnson run for 13 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
86.7%
Tony Moore run for 18 yds to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
85.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 3 yds to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
85.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass intercepted, touchback. Richard Leonard return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0792% → 99%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
92.1%
Anthon Samuel run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+14
92.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 14 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
93.0%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+11
93.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 11 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
94.1%
Alex Gardner run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
94.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 18 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
94.4%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+17
94.5%
Anthon Samuel run for 17 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.7%
Alex McGough run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Alex McGough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 11 yds · 1:471% → 1%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
98.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for no gain to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+6
99.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 6 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Tony MooreSimilar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
99.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:5999% → 100%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Cory White for 5 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
99.4%
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
99.4%
Anthon Samuel run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.5%
Anthon Samuel run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+11
99.5%
Anthon Samuel run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.6%
Anthon Samuel run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Anthon Samuel run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
Jeremy Gaskins run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
100.0%
Jeremy Gaskins run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+12
100.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 12 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
Jeremy Gaskins run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
100.0%
Jeremy Gaskins run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 3:39
Jay Warren run for 3 yds Jay Warren fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Richard Leonard , return for 100 yds for a TD (Austin Taylor KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q2 9:29
Jay Warren run for 31 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 11:35
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
+8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com