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RICE

Rice 41 at Southern Miss 23

USM
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:15 · Tyler Sarrazin punt for 40 yds , Mario Hull returns for 20 yds to the Rice 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior−11.9Home team on offense−10.6Score differential−4.9Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:56: Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 30 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +13.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:50: George Payne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Corey Acosta MISSED) — USM win probability +15.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 1:11: Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 40 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK) — RICE win probability +17.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:11: Luke Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK) — RICE win probability +14.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:00: Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 10 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +11.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:11RICE 4th & 5 at USM 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:11USM 4th & 1 at USM 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:19USM 4th & 1 at USM 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:12USM 4th & 12 at RICE 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:20RICE 4th & 11 at USM 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:20USM 4th & 1 at RICE 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 7 at USM 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:05RICE 4th & 11 at USM 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:15USM 4th & 9 at USM 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:39RICE 4th & 25 at RICE 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:39USM 4th & 10 at USM 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:19RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−4.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:00USM 4th & 16 at USM 19, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:50RICE 4th & 4 at USM 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 7:05RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:56USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:55RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:11RICE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:11RICE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:00USM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:00RICE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:4974% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
25.9%
Jowan Davis run for 7 yds to the Rice 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
25.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 6 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
25.9%
Jowan Davis run for 7 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+8
25.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 8 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
25.9%
Jowan Davis run for 22 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
25.9%
Luke Turner run for 1 yd to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
25.9%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
25.9%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
27.4%
James Farrimond 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.5%
Nick Mullens run for 9 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
27.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
27.5%
George Payne run for 15 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (George Payne) to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
27.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-2
27.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+11
27.3%
Nick Mullens run for 11 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
27.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Finner at the Rice 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
28.3%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 18Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
28.4%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 14
OWN 18
-4
28.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Darik Dillard for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 14Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+9
28.8%
James Farrimond punt for 45 yds , Casey Martin returns for 9 yds to the SoMis 23 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
29.4%
George Payne run for 8 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
29.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
29.4%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
29.2%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
28.8%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
28.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
28.8%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
28.8%
Darik Dillard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
28.5%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
28.8%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
28.5%
Jowan Davis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+45
28.5%
Driphus Jackson pass intercepted Picasso Nelson Jr. return for 45 yds to the Rice 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:2032% → 35%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
32.2%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 48Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+12
31.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tez Parks for 12 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-5
32.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Rice 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+8
32.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 8 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
33.5%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the Rice 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-3
32.7%
Nick Mullens sacked by Tabari McGaskey for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 35Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+52
35.0%
Corey Acosta 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 6:0766% → 74%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
33.6%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+9
32.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 9 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
32.5%
Driphus Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 42Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
33.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jowan Davis for no gain to the Rice 42Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+23
33.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 23 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
31.8%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+11
31.8%
Jowan Davis run for 11 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
31.7%
Luke Turner run for 5 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+8
31.7%
Darik Dillard run for 8 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
31.7%
Jowan Davis run for 6 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
31.7%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.3%
Jowan Davis run for 6 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0929% → 44%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.5%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
28.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 11 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
29.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 21 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
30.8%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+2
30.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+5
30.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 5 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
44.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 30 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:0165% → 75%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+43
35.0%
Driphus Jackson run for 43 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
33.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 7 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
25.2%
Jowan Davis run for 6 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+25
28.9%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Garrett Fuhrman return for 25 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11FG
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4375% → 76%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
24.8%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+5
24.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 5 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
23.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 6
OPP 11
-5
25.1%
RICE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
24.3%
James Farrimond 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12INT
9 plays · 53 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
23.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 16 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
24.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 4 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
24.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 6 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
25.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 18 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
26.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
26.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
25.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 9 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+6
24.8%
Tyler Sarrazin pass intercepted Ryan Pollard return for 6 yds to the Rice 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.5%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
23.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese Triplett, broken up by Tabari McGaskeySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
22.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Bryce CallahanSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
22.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds , Bryce Callahan returns for 8 yds to the SoMis 36 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
22.9%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
22.8%
Jowan Davis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-6
23.3%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Dasman McCullum for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 48 RICE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
24.7%
James Farrimond punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
22.6%
MULLENS, Nick sideline pass complete to COX, James for 42 yards to the RICE38, out-of-bounds (FINNER, Jaylon), PENALTY USM holding 10 yards to the USM10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+12
22.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 12 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+18
22.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 3 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tabari McGaskey) to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
23.8%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
23.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
22.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Kyle FosterSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+20
21.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 40 yds , Mario Hull returns for 20 yds to the Rice 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
22.0%
Jowan Davis run for 14 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
21.9%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 49Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
22.8%
Driphus Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 14
OWN 49
-11
23.2%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Ja'Boree Poole and Dasman McCullum for a loss of 11 yards to the Rice 38Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 25
OWN 38
+24
24.2%
James Farrimond punt for 56 yds , Casey Martin returns for 24 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
22.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 8 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
23.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Daythan DavisSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+5
23.1%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
23.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
23.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Jaylon FinnerSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
22.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
21.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
21.7%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 21Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
22.1%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
22.8%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 13
OWN 21
+6
23.3%
James Farrimond punt for 39 yds , Casey Martin returns for 6 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:3122% → 39%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
22.4%
Nick Mullens run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 44 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by SoMis Nick MullensSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+14
21.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 14 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+41
23.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 41 yds to the Rice 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.0%
George Payne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Corey Acosta MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:3969% → 83%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
31.0%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
30.9%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+34
32.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 34 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
28.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-4
28.3%
JACKSON, Driphu pass complete to WRIGHT, Zach for 15 yards to the USM21 (NELSON, Picasso), PENALTY RICE illegal forward pass (JACKSON, Driphu) 4 yards to the USM40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+40
16.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 40 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1118% → 18%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.9%
Tez Parks run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
17.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 8 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
17.9%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
18.1%
Nick Mullens run for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
17.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by Graysen Schantz for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 25 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by Rice Bryce Callahan , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:0284% → 97%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
15.8%
Jowan Davis run for 9 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
15.8%
Jowan Davis run for 7 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
15.8%
Jowan Davis run for 3 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
15.8%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
16.2%
Luke Turner run for 1 yd to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Rakeem Nunez-Roches) to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.0%
Luke Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:115% → 17%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to James CoxSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
4.5%
MULLENS, Nick deep pass incomplete to THOMAS, Michael, PENALTY RICE pass interference (CALLAHAN, Bryce) 15 yards to the USM40, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
4.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Tez Parks, broken up by Alex LyonsSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
4.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+14
4.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 14 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
5.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
5.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Jaylon FinnerSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+12
5.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 12 yds to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
5.8%
MULLENS, Nick deep pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J. (POLLARD, Ryan), PENALTY RICE pass interference (POLLARD, Ryan) 15 yards to the RICE10, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
17.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 10 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 5:0089% → 99%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+38
11.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jowan Davis for 38 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
10.0%
Jowan Davis run for 9 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+4
9.8%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
9.8%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+12
9.8%
Darik Dillard run for 12 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
9.8%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
9.8%
Jowan Davis run for 3 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Connor Cella for 5 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
2.1%
Nick Mullens sacked by Brian Nordstrom for a loss of 11 yards to the SoMis 14Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
2.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
2.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-11
2.3%
DILLARD, Darik rush up middle for 4 yards to the USM15 (SMITH, Michael;ANDERSON, Brian), PENALTY RICE illegal block 11 yards to the USM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 21
OPP 30
+3
2.1%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+2
2.4%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+12
2.5%
Darik Dillard run for 12 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+5
2.5%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:11
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 40 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q3 3:50
George Payne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Corey Acosta MISSED)
+15.7
TD · Q4 11:11
Luke Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com