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Louisiana Tech 17 at Auburn 45

AUB
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:22 · Cody Sokol pass complete to Josh Gaston for 36 yds Josh Gaston fumbled, forced by Stephen Roberts, recovered by LaTch
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+16.4Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+30.5Garbage-time factor+10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Blowout margin+15.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:36: Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 18 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:34: Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 37 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:54: Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +4.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:24: Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 44 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:27: Kenneth Dixon run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8LT made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:53AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28LT 4th & 2 at LT 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:21AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:46LT 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:27AUB 4th & 7 at LT 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:25LT 4th & 14 at LT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:16AUB 4th & 11 at LT 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:02LT 4th & 8 at LT 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:49AUB 4th & 4 at LT 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:48LT 4th & 2 at AUB 20, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:20LT 4th & 29 at AUB 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:16AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:58AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:48LT 4th & 9 at LT 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:21LT 4th & 7 at LT 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:22LT 4th & 1 at LT 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:34LT 4th & 14 at LT 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:02AUB 4th & 3 at LT 37, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:52LT 4th & 10 at LT 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:28AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:36AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:34AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:54LT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:24AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:27LT Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:53AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5598% → 98%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
98.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 11 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
98.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-2
98.1%
Corey Grant run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
98.0%
Daniel Carlson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:122% → 2%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 5 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter Lee, broken up by DaVonte LambertSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+3
97.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Cody Sokol for 3 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
97.8%
Logan McPherson punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0198% → 98%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
97.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
97.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
97.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Daniel Carlson punt for 34 yds, downed at the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:352% → 3%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
97.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 39Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
97.6%
Hunter Lee run for 9 yds to the LaTch 48 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carlos Henderson) to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
97.4%
Carlos Henderson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+36
97.4%
Cody Sokol pass intercepted Montravius Adams return for 36 yds to the LaTch 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:192% → 3%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for 5 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
97.5%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
97.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 5 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.4%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
97.4%
Kenneth Dixon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 8
50
0
97.3%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter LeeSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 8
50
0
97.3%
Logan McPherson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:0697% → 97%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
97.3%
Nick Marshall run for 13 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+31
97.2%
Nick Marshall run for 31 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
97.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 14 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
97.3%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
97.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan Bray, broken up by Le'Vander LigginsSimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
97.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
97.1%
Daniel Carlson 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:353% → 3%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
97.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 20Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 14
OWN 20
0
97.0%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
97.0%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+22
97.0%
Logan McPherson punt for 45 yds , Quan Bray returns for 22 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5997% → 97%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
97.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-14
96.9%
Nick Marshall sacked by Terrell Pinson for a loss of 14 yards to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 23
OWN 44
+12
96.7%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 12 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
96.5%
Matthew Shiel punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:584% → 4%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
96.5%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 3 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-1
96.5%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
96.5%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Paul Turner, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+12
96.5%
Logan McPherson punt for 39 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 12 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:0197% → 96%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
96.6%
Corey Grant run for 8 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+7
96.5%
Corey Grant run for 7 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
96.5%
Nick Marshall run for 17 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
96.5%
Corey Grant run for 1 yd to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
96.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-1
96.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
96.2%
Daniel Carlson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:424% → 5%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
96.2%
Cody Sokol sacked by Robenson Therezie and DaVonte Lambert for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+6
96.2%
Kenneth Dixon run for 6 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 11 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
95.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
95.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for 2 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+7
95.6%
Carlos Henderson run for 7 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
95.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 7 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+13
95.3%
Blake Martin run for 13 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
95.0%
Blake Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+6
94.9%
Kenneth Dixon run for 6 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-1
95.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
95.1%
Jonathan Barnes 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:5995% → 98%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
95.4%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
95.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+8
95.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 8 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
95.4%
Nick Marshall run for 6 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
95.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
95.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 7 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
95.5%
Nick Marshall run for 9 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
95.5%
Nick Marshall run for 2 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
95.5%
Nick Marshall run for 15 yds to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
95.4%
Nick Marshall run for 7 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-10
95.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chad Slade) to the LaTch 18Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+18
97.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 18 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:133% → 3%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
96.9%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 23Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
96.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
96.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds Trent Taylor fumbled, forced by Jonathan Jones, recovered by Aub Montravius AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:3597% → 99%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
97.3%
Corey Grant run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+6
97.7%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 6 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+37
98.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 37 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16END OF HALF
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:212% → 2%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
98.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 20 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
97.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 20 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.9%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
97.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Darrell Brown) to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+13
98.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 13 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+25
98.3%
Jonathan Barnes 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:302% → 2%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.3%
Tevin King run for 2 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
98.3%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
98.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 11 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+36
98.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 36 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
98.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 15
OPP 27
-15
98.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 30
OPP 42
+1
98.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 29
OPP 41
0
98.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for no gain to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 29
OPP 41
0
98.5%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 29
OPP 41
0
98.5%
Logan McPherson punt for 35 yds, downed at the Aub 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
98.7%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 1 yd to the Aub 7Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+6
98.7%
Corey Grant run for 6 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 13
0
98.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
98.6%
Daniel Carlson punt for 36 yds, downed at the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:122% → 6%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+36
98.4%
Jarred Craft run for 36 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 5
OPP 8
0
98.3%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
98.2%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
98.4%
Kenneth Dixon run for 4 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.2%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3796% → 96%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
96.2%
Corey Grant run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
96.1%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille Williams, broken up by Kentrell BriceSimilar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
95.9%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie Coates, broken up by Xavier WoodsSimilar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
95.7%
Daniel Carlson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:575% → 4%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
95.2%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+11
95.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jonathon Mincy) to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
94.8%
Cody Sokol run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 29 Cody Sokol fumbled, recovered by LaTch Cody SokolSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+8
95.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 8 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
95.4%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
95.7%
Gerald Shouse punt for 55 yds, downed at the Aub 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 4:1696% → 99%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
96.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 17 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
96.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
96.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 13 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
97.0%
Nick Marshall run for 8 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
96.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
96.9%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+44
99.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 44 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:491% → 0%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.2%
Carlos Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson, broken up by Joshua HolseySimilar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Sterling GriffinSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+76
99.9%
Logan McPherson punt for 48 yds , Quan Bray returns for 76 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:330% → 1%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Tevin King run for 6 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+36
99.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Josh Gaston for 36 yds Josh Gaston fumbled, forced by Stephen Roberts, recovered by LaTchSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 8 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
99.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1799% → 100%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Corey Grant run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 15 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+37
99.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 37 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+1
99.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
99.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 14Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+7
99.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-6
100.0%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 14
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter LeeSimilar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Logan McPherson punt for 41 yds, downed at the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
99.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Stanton Truitt for 12 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.9%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-3
99.9%
Jeremy Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+11
99.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Roc Thomas for 11 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+19
100.0%
Logan McPherson punt for 43 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 19 yds to the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
100.0%
Peyton Barber run for 7 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+7
100.0%
Peyton Barber run for 7 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
100.0%
Peyton Barber run for 10 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:54
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q4 14:24
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 44 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 1:36
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 18 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com