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UTSA

UTSA 37 at Florida Atlantic 41

FAU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:27 · Kristian Stern punt for 47 yds , Lucky Whitehead returns for no gain to the FlAtl 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Home team on offense−19.8Pregame prior−0.3Garbage-time factor−7.0Score differential−5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:04: Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 53 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +17.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:16: Tucker Carter run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +16.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:17: Tony Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +15.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 4:10: Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 21 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +24.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:20: Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Nate Terry for 15 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +50.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:27UTSA 4th & 2 at FAU 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:15FAU 4th & 10 at UTSA 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:15UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:16FAU 4th & 8 at UTSA 42, down 10
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:34UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:16FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:44UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.3%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:42FAU 4th & 20 at FAU 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:04UTSA 4th & 16 at FAU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:04FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:54UTSA 4th & 6 at FAU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−10.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:27UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−4.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:59UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:24FAU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:42UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:09FAU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:04UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:16UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:17FAU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:10FAU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:20FAU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.7 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 22 Jaquez Johnson fumbled, forced by Robert Singletary, recovered by TexSA Jens Jeters , return for 3 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:5458% → 58%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
42.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 21 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.2%
Tucker Carter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
42.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jay Warren for 3 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
42.3%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+6
42.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 6 yds William Dukes fumbled, forced by Jason Neill, recovered by TexSA Triston WadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5658% → 59%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
41.9%
Tucker Carter run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+3
41.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
41.9%
David Glasco II run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+3
41.9%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
41.9%
Brady Jones run for no gain to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
41.5%
Sean Ianno 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 5:1242% → 40%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.8%
Jay Warren run for no gain to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
41.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
41.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 16 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
42.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 7 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
42.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 1
50
+6
42.3%
Jay Warren run for 6 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
42.4%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass incomplete to WHITEHEAD, Luck, PENALTY UTSA offside (Singletary) 5 yards to the UTSA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 5
OPP 39
-2
42.4%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+11
42.4%
Lucky Whitehead run for 11 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
42.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 4 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-4
42.6%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Brian Price for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
40.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to William Dukes, broken up by Trevor BakerSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
40.1%
Greg Joseph 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.9%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-5
40.1%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (N/A) to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
40.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to David Glasco IISimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
40.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlAtl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
39.1%
Jay Warren run for 18 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
39.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
39.6%
Jay Warren run for 4 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-2
39.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
38.8%
Ryan Rickel punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
39.2%
Brandon Armstrong run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
39.2%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to David Glasco IISimilar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
39.6%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+4
39.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 49 yds , Lucky Whitehead returns for 4 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:3139% → 46%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
38.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 12 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
45.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 47 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2457% → 57%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
43.4%
David Glasco II run for 6 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
42.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
42.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
43.3%
Kristian Stern punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cre'von LeBlanc at the FlAtl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
43.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
43.4%
Tony Moore run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 6
OWN 15
-5
42.7%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Dalton Miller for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 11
OWN 10
0
42.5%
Dalton Schomp punt for 62 yds, downed at the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:2857% → 64%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
43.3%
David Glasco II run for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
42.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brady Jones for 8 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
42.0%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Brady Jones, broken up by Andrae KirkSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
42.5%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+12
43.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
42.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
41.8%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by David LozandierSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+16
42.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 16 yds to the FlAtl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
41.5%
David Glasco II run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+6
41.5%
David Glasco II run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.6%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
35.1%
Jaquez Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-9
35.2%
JOHNSON, Jaquez sacked for loss of 2 yards to the FAU16 (Sanchez), PENALTY FAU holding (BAIN, Reggie) 9 yards to the FAU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+4
35.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 4 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 12
OWN 13
-8
34.5%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 20
OWN 5
0
34.2%
Dalton Schomp punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14INT TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:4867% → 61%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
33.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Josiah Monroe for 6 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
32.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+19
33.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 19 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+76
39.5%
Tucker Carter pass intercepted for a TD Cre'von LeBlanc return for 76 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
42.3%
David Glasco II run for 5 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
41.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brady Jones for 6 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
41.1%
Tucker Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+8
41.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 8 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
41.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 4 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
40.7%
Tucker Carter pass intercepted Andrae Kirk return for 9 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 0:5845% → 57%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
45.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Alex Deleon, broken up by Jens JetersSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
43.9%
Jay Warren run for 10 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
46.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Triston Wade) to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
48.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 9 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
48.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+24
56.6%
Jaquez Johnson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
38.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 53 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4459% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.0%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
41.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 7 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
40.5%
David Glasco II run for 5 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
39.5%
Aaron Grubb run for no gain to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
39.7%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+16
41.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 16 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
38.5%
Brady Jones run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
38.2%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Cole HubbleSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
38.6%
Tucker Carter run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
37.8%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Miles Lerch for 7 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+12
37.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Seth Grubb for 12 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
37.5%
Brady Jones run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
37.5%
David Glasco II run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
38.6%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.2%
Tucker Carter run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5925% → 45%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.4%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
25.6%
Jay Warren run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
26.2%
Jaquez Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
26.4%
Jay Warren run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+11
26.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 11 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
28.1%
Jay Warren run for 13 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
29.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to William DukesSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
29.3%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+7
27.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Derek Moise for 7 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
29.4%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass incomplete to DELEON, Alex, QB hurry by Price, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Wade) 15 yards to the UTSA8, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
29.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for 6 yds to the TexSA 2Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.6%
Tony Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:1364% → 74%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
35.9%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (David Morgan II) to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+21
36.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 21 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
33.3%
Brady Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSA 42Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
33.6%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Jarveon Williams, broken up by Trevon ColeySimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+14
34.8%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 14 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
32.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+13
32.6%
Carter pass incomplete to Thomas Jr., QB hurry by EUGENE, R., PENALTY FAU pass interference (SMITH, D'Joun) 13 yards to the FAU30, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
31.4%
Brandon Armstrong run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+4
31.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 4 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-8
31.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+53
25.7%
Sean Ianno 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
28.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 12 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
29.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 1 yd to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
29.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to William DukesSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+1
28.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
26.9%
Dalton Schomp punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:0676% → 85%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
24.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Cole Hubble for 14 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
23.4%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
23.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+40
24.4%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Miles Lerch for 40 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
20.3%
David Glasco II run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+4
20.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 4 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
21.0%
Tucker Carter run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
20.3%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
20.3%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
21.0%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Jarveon Williams TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
14.6%
Sean Ianno 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4414% → 36%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
14.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 14 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
15.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
15.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 19 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
17.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 9 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
18.9%
Jay Warren run for no gain to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
17.6%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
18.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 10 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
18.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Dillon DeBoer) to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+16
17.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 16 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
18.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-11
18.9%
Lucky Whitehead run for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 21Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+21
36.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 21 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 1:4379% → 79%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
20.7%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
20.8%
David Glasco II run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
19.7%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
15.8%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Marcellus MackSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 11
OPP 48
-6
17.3%
Tucker Carter sacked by Brandin Bryant for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
20.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 47 yds , Lucky Whitehead returns for no gain to the FlAtl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 1:5529% → 91%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
29.2%
Jaquez Johnson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+1
30.0%
Jaquez Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+7
28.2%
Jaquez Johnson run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
30.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 10 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
31.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 36 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
40.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+12
40.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 12 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
40.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky Whitehead, broken up by Triston WadeSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
40.4%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass complete to DUKES, William for 7 yards to the UTSA13 (Starling), PENALTY UTSA offside (Singletary) 5 yards to the UTSA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
91.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Nate Terry for 15 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0433% → 26%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
67.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Cole HubbleSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
74.4%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Marcellus Mack, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:20
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Nate Terry for 15 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+50.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+25.6
TD · Q4 4:10
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 21 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+24.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com