2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Legion Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:09 · Hunter Mullins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richard Leonard at the FlaIn 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:44: Jeremiah Briscoe pass intercepted for a TD Richard Leonard return for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +6.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 3:37: Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +11.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:30: Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 85 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +17.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:17: Austin Taylor 25 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +12.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:40: Jeremiah Briscoe pass intercepted for a TD Demarkus Perkins return for 31 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +15.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 13
- Q1 13:30FIU 4th & 6 at UAB 43, down 7Close callPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.5%40% to convertField goal17.4%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call17.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:41FIU 4th & 14 at UAB 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snapGo for it17.4%−0.218% to convertField goalTheir call17.6%62% to makePunt17.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:41UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it82.1%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.2%average punt
- Q1 6:36FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q1 4:09UAB 4th & 2 at UAB 33, up 7Close callPunted · 81.8% before the snapGo for it82.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:36FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snapGo for it18.1%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it81.0%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.5%average punt
- Q2 14:52FIU 4th & 5 at UAB 39, down 7Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it19.2%42% to convertField goal18.8%−0.436% to makePuntTheir call18.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:27UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 22, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snapGo for it69.4%−0.551% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.9%average punt
- Q2 0:25FIU 4th & 6 at UAB 47, up 1Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.5%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 14:52FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 37, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snapGo for it30.4%−1.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q3 13:22UAB 4th & 14 at UAB 17, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it64.5%−2.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.3%average punt
- Q3 12:19FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 25, up 1Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it32.9%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:49UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 47, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.0%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.3%average punt
- Q3 8:00FIU 4th & 15 at UAB 18, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snapGo for it50.9%−3.215% to convertField goalTheir call54.1%79% to makePunt44.7%−9.4average punt
- Q3 4:00UAB 4th & 2 at FIU 24, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.8%57% to convertField goal35.4%−1.468% to makePunt27.3%−9.4average punt
- Q3 3:53FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 25, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snapGo for it61.8%−2.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.4%average punt
- Q4 14:17FIU 4th & 4 at UAB 8, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snapGo for it71.2%42% to convertField goalTheir call70.6%−0.790% to makePunt59.6%−11.7average punt
- Q4 13:40UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 48, down 21Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.9%average punt
- Q4 11:57FIU 4th & 9 at UAB 47, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%average punt
- Q4 8:12UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:21FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 29, up 21Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:36UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.6%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:44FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.4%97% to makeGo for two23.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:37FIU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.1%97% to makeGo for two27.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:30FIU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.9%97% to makeGo for two49.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:40FIU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:21UAB Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two2.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1TD6 plays · 74 yds · 1:1779% → 79%
FIUDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
78.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 15 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3FUMBLE3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
FIUDrive 4MISSED FG5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5322% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
FIUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
78.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Akil Dan-Fodio for 4 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-7
78.8%
Alex McGough sacked by Diaheem Watkins for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
79.0%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 48 yds , Jamarcus Nelson returns for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 4:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
78.4%
Hunter Mullins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richard Leonard at the FlaIn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 2:36
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
78.6%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jamarcus Nelson at the UAB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3779% → 78%
FIUDrive 10PUNT12 plays · 47 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+11
78.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Dennis Turner for 11 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+7
77.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 7 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.1%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Dennis Turner, broken up by Robert MondieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11INT TD3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4379% → 72%
UABDrive 12TD11 plays · 52 yds · 2:5674% → 80%
Q2 8:35
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
74.7%
HOWARD, Jordan rush for loss of 2 yards to the 50 yardline (WINT, Anthony), PENALTY FIU offside 5 yards to the FIU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
74.7%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 4 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
74.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 6 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+29
80.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 29 yds for a TD, (Ty Long BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0221% → 33%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
78.1%
GARDNER, Alex rush for 10 yards to the FIU46 (FARMER, Lamarcu), PENALTY FIU holding 10 yards to the FIU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-1
78.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+75
66.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 75 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
67.7%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 6 yds to the UAB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5135% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16MISSED FG7 plays · 25 yds · 0:2368% → 67%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
68.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 9 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
68.8%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamarcus Nelson, broken up by Demarkus PerkinsSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+16
68.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 16 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
UABDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
65.6%
HOWARD, Jordan rush for 71 yards to the FIU8 (MCKINNON, J.), PENALTY UAB holding (BLANKENSHIP, Ca) 10 yards to the UAB11, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 12:19
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+4
65.1%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 47 , Jamarcus Nelson returns for 4 yds to the UAB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 63%
Q3 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-7
67.9%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the UAB 45 UAB Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UAB 45Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+2
65.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 2 yds to the UAB 47Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+2
62.9%
Hunter Mullins punt for 40 yds , Richard Leonard returns for 2 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21TD1 play · 85 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
45.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 85 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23FG5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2459% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24DOWNS13 plays · 55 yds · 3:5438% → 36%
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
39.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 6 yds to the UAB 47Similar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
41.7%
CLEMENTS, Cody pass intercepted by MCKINNON, J. at the FIU0, MCKINNON, J. return to the FIU0, PENALTY FIU pass interference (MCKINNON, J.) 15 yards to the FIU32, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
UABDrive 26INT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2237% → 30%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
36.9%
CLEMENTS, Cody pass incomplete to NELSON, JJ, PENALTY UAB holding 10 yards to the UAB47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 17
50
-2
34.5%
Cody Clements sacked by Imarjaye Albury for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 48Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 19
OWN 48
+5
28.6%
CLEMENTS, Cody sacked for loss of 11 yards to the UAB37 (WAKEFIELD, Mike), PENALTY FIU offside 5 yards to the FIU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+46
29.6%
Cody Clements pass intercepted Richard Leonard return for 46 yds to the UAB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 27FG6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4774% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 28INT TD3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2920% → 5%
UABDrive 29DOWNS8 plays · 23 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 30PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 31INT16 plays · 67 yds · 1:573% → 3%
Q4 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-1
3.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to D.J. Vinson for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 21Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+5
3.0%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive offside (Fred Porter) to the UAB 26Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
2.4%
BRISCOE, Jeremi pass intercepted by HALLEY, Justin at the FIU35, HALLEY, Justin return to the UAB30, out-of-bounds (BLANKENSHIP, Ca), PENALTY FIU offside 5 yards to the UAB35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
2.4%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamari Staples for 13 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
3.0%
Cody Clements pass intercepted, touchback. Wilkenson Myrtil return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 32PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:21
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+19
0.7%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 39 , Jamarcus Nelson returns for 19 yds to the UAB 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:30
Alex McGough pass complete to Glenn Coleman for 85 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q4 13:40
Jeremiah Briscoe pass intercepted for a TD Demarkus Perkins return for 31 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
-15.4
FG · Q4 14:17
Austin Taylor 25 yd FG GOOD
-12.1