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App State 20 at Southern Miss 21

USM
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:34 · Zach Matics 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+4.8Pregame prior+3.9Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score differential+1.5Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:28: George Payne run for 3 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +7.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:08: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 10 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +40.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:22: Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 31 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +29.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:06: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 2 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED) — APP win probability +25.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:06: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37 — USM win probability +22.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:14APP 4th & 11 at APP 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04USM 4th & 7 at USM 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:28USM 4th & 19 at USM 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:33USM 4th & 1 at USM 19, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:37APP 4th & 15 at USM 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:54USM 4th & 11 at APP 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:34APP 4th & 3 at USM 26, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−8.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:34USM 4th & 2 at USM 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:52APP 4th & 2 at APP 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:21USM 4th & 2 at USM 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:36APP 4th & 10 at APP 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:54USM 4th & 6 at USM 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:52APP 4th & 11 at USM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−10.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:55USM 4th & 18 at APP 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−3.8
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−8.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:53APP 4th & 10 at USM 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−2.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3APP made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:14USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:28USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:33APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:08APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:22USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:4659% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
59.0%
Tez Parks run for 11 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
59.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tez Parks for 5 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
59.0%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+24
59.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 24 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
59.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
59.9%
George Payne run for 15 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
59.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
59.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 10 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
59.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
59.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 4 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-4
59.6%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Rakeem Nunez-Roches for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
59.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 44 yds , Casey Martin returns for no gain to the SoMis 16 Casey Martin fumbled, recovered by SoMis Casey MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 10:04
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
60.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 50 ydsSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
61.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
61.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
60.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4MISSED FG
19 plays · 50 yds · 5:3739% → 37%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
61.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+20
61.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 20 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
60.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
60.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
60.4%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+10
60.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Blackmon for 10 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
60.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
60.5%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-5
60.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+14
61.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Tacoi Sumler for 14 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
61.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 7 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+3
61.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
61.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 4Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-10
61.2%
Lamb, Taylor rush over right tackle for 3 yards to the USM1 (WILLIAMS, Adam), PENALTY APP holding 10 yards to the USM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 0
OPP 14
-5
61.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 0
OPP 19
0
61.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
62.9%
Zach Matics 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
63.9%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 17Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+30
63.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 30 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
64.8%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 7
50
0
64.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 7
50
-12
64.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Kennan Gilchrist for a loss of 12 yards to the SoMis 38 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by SoMis N/A , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 19
OWN 38
+8
63.3%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for 8 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
64.1%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
63.3%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.5%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Jomez Applewhite return for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0765% → 74%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
65.1%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+36
65.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 36 yds Markese Triplett fumbled, forced by A.J. Howard, recovered by SoMis Michael Thomas for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
66.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for no gain to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+20
66.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 20 yds to the AppSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+7
67.1%
MULLENS, Nick FA pass incomplete to RICARD, M., PENALTY APP pass interference (Blackmon, Dante) 7 yards to the APP2, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
66.6%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 3Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.8%
George Payne run for 3 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
74.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the AppSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 4:5529% → 35%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
71.4%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-5
71.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 18Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+4
71.6%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+12
71.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 12 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+37
71.2%
Marcus Cox run for 37 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
69.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 10 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
69.6%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
71.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 3 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+4
72.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 4 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
71.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+8
71.7%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.4%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
68.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 10Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
68.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+9
67.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 9 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
67.6%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
66.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 3:1832% → 28%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
68.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 6 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
67.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+10
67.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
66.5%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
66.5%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 11
OPP 36
-5
68.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+6
69.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 6 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
71.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
72.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 33 yds, downed at the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:3371% → 71%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
70.6%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+20
70.6%
Tez Parks run for 20 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
71.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
70.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to James CoxSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+30
70.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 30 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
72.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by John Law for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 48 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, F0 ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 18
OPP 48
0
71.9%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+12
70.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 12 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 6
OPP 36
-5
71.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (James Cox) to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
70.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 39 yds, downed at the AppSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0626% → 26%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
73.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 3Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+3
73.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2631% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
69.4%
Marcus Cox run for 11 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
68.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 16 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
67.1%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+15
66.6%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Alan Howze) to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
65.3%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+4
65.3%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
66.4%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
69.3%
Zach Matics 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
71.8%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
71.8%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
72.1%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
70.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
70.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 7 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
69.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-1
68.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+12
71.6%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 47 yds , Casey Martin returns for 12 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
74.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 7 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-2
75.5%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+3
73.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 3 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
73.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
71.7%
Marcus Cox run for 16 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
69.9%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-6
69.1%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Draper Riley for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+3
72.5%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+8
73.5%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 49 yds , Casey Martin returns for 8 yds to the SOUMISS 47 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
76.3%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 6Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 11
OWN 6
0
76.1%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+13
75.1%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Joel Ross return for 13 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+29
66.3%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37 Marcus Cox fumbled, forced by Dasman McCullum, recovered by SoMis Dasman McCullum , return for 29 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
78.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
78.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
78.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Kyle FosterSimilar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
76.3%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:4224% → 22%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
75.8%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+25
76.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for 10 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Terrick Wright) to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
74.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 6 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
72.6%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
72.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Isaiah LewisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+27
73.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 27 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
70.0%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-5
70.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+5
72.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
75.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
78.5%
Zach Matics 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.0%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
83.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 8 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.3%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Joel Ross return for no gain to the AppSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
77.7%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
77.8%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Picasso Nelson Jr. return for 8 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:2386% → 85%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
86.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tez Parks for 8 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-1
86.2%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
85.3%
MULLENS, Nick sideline pass intercepted by Blackmon, Dante at the APP15, Blackmon, Dante return to the APP15, PENALTY APP offside (McGowan, B.) 5 yards to the APP35, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
86.6%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+15
86.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 15 yds to the AppSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
86.5%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-15
86.5%
MULLENS, Nick sideline pass complete to THOMAS, Michael for 16 yards to the APP0, clock 11:18, PENALTY USM pass interference (THOMAS, Michael) 15 yards to the APP31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 23
OPP 31
0
85.7%
Tez Parks pass incomplete to Kyle FosterSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 23
OPP 31
+5
84.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
84.7%
Corey Acosta 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:4719% → 59%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
80.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 2 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+21
80.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 21 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
77.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Tacoi Sumler, broken up by Jacorius CottonSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
82.2%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete, PENALTY USM pass interference (MARTIN, Casey) 15 yards to the USM23, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
79.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus CoxSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
80.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
81.7%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the SoMis 10 Marcus Cox fumbled, forced by Jacorius Cotton, recovered by AppSt Simms McElfresh for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
41.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 10 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4657% → 94%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.4%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
58.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
61.9%
Tez Parks run for 15 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
63.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
64.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+31
94.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 31 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:1611% → 37%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 8 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
86.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
87.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 4 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
87.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
50
+21
85.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 21 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
81.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
84.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Bobo Beathard, broken up by Emmanuel JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
87.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+17
89.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Hunter Nunn for 17 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
83.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Tacoi Sumler for 4 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
83.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+6
88.3%
Lamb, Taylor FA pass incomplete to McGuire, Montez, PENALTY USM pass interference (MARTIN, Casey) 6 yards to the USM2, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 2 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
92.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:08
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 10 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Zach Matics KICK)
-40.5
TD · Q4 2:22
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 31 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)
+29.6
TD · Q4 0:06
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 2 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED), (Zach Matics BLOCKED)
-25.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com