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NICH

Nicholls 3 at North Texas 77

UNT
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:25 · Eric Keena punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keenan Canty at the NicSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+13.3Home team on offense+34.2Score differential+30.0Blowout margin+16.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.2Garbage-time factor+12.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:54: Reggie Pegram run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 5:03: Francisco Condado 23 yd FG GOOD — NICH win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:08: Kalen Henderson pass intercepted for a TD James Jones return for 33 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:08: Dajon Williams pass complete to Marcus Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:38: Dajon Williams pass complete to Willy Ivery for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 11:36NICH 4th & 21 at NICH 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:20NICH 4th & 2 at UNT 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:03NICH 4th & 6 at UNT 6, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:26UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:19NICH 4th & 2 at NICH 37, down 18
    Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:29NICH 4th & 25 at NICH 23, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:46NICH 4th & 6 at midfield, down 39
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13NICH 4th & 17 at NICH 40, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:43NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 25, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:39NICH 4th & 2 at UNT 43, down 53
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:44NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 37, down 74
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:25UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 36, up 74
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:55NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 42, down 74
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:12NICH 4th & 4 at UNT 10, down 74
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 13:42UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:26UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 10:54UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:24UNT Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:08UNT Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:08UNT Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:38UNT Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:43UNT Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:10UNT Touchdown, up 59 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:34UNT Touchdown, up 66 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:03UNT Touchdown, up 73 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:0899% → 99%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
98.7%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Carlos Harris for 7 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+14
98.6%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Marcus Smith for 14 yds to the NicSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
98.6%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 25 yds to the NicSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.6%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Darius Terrell for 5 yds to the NicSt 8Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
98.6%
Dajon Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Kalen Henderson pass intercepted James Jones return for no gain to the NicSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
1 play · 41 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
98.6%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Carlos Harris for 41 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:441% → 2%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.6%
Michael Henry run for 1 yd to the NicSt 26Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
98.6%
Michael Henry run for 2 yds to the NicSt 28Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
98.6%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caleb Cline) to the NicSt 18Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-4
98.6%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Chad Polk and Malik Dilonga for a loss of 4 yards to the NicSt 14Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
98.5%
Conner Fryoux punt blocked by Derrick Teegarden, downed at the NicSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
98.5%
Reggie Pegram run for 14 yds to the NicSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.5%
Reggie Pegram run for 6 yds to the NicSt 1Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
Reggie Pegram run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 6FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 5:472% → 2%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.5%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Terry Lucas Jr. for 7 yds to the NicSt 32Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
98.6%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Demon Bolt for 6 yds to the NicSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
98.6%
Kalen Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 36Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+10
98.6%
Tobias Lofton run for 10 yds to the NicSt 46Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+36
98.5%
Michael Henry run for 36 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
98.5%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Kyron KingSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-1
98.5%
Tobias Lofton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+9
98.6%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Keenan Canty for 9 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+6
98.5%
Kalen Henderson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
98.5%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Chad Polk for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
98.5%
Michael Henry run for 5 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.5%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Demon BoltSimilar
Q1 5:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
98.3%
Francisco Condado 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3498% → 98%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
98.4%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
98.4%
Dajon Williams run for no gain to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
98.4%
Dajon Williams pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
98.3%
Eric Keena punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keenan Canty at the NicSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:012% → 2%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.3%
Michael Henry run for 3 yds to the NicSt 32Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-4
98.3%
Tobias Lofton run for a loss of 4 yards to the NicSt 28Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+9
98.3%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Keenan Canty for 9 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+9
98.2%
Conner Fryoux punt for 46 yds , Carlos Harris returns for 9 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.3%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for no gain to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
98.3%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Carlos Harris for 7 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+43
98.3%
Carlos Harris run for 43 yds to the NicSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
98.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 29Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+24
98.3%
Carlos Harris run for 24 yds to the NicSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.3%
Dajon Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 10INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+33
99.3%
Kalen Henderson pass intercepted for a TD James Jones return for 33 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · -2 yds · 3:361% → 1%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Michael Henry run for 4 yds to the NicSt 29Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.9%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Stephen LeBouefSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
98.9%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Sid Moore and Chad Polk for a loss of 6 yards to the NicSt 23Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+15
99.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the NicSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
98.9%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Rafe Plaisance) to the NicSt 23Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+5
99.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Anthony Wallace) to the NicSt 28Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 20
OWN 28
-5
99.0%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Tillman Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the NicSt 23Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 25
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Michael Henry run for no gain to the NicSt 23Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 25
OWN 23
0
99.1%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Stephen LeBouefSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 25
OWN 23
+26
99.1%
Conner Fryoux punt for 44 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for 26 yds to the NicSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:1099% → 99%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.2%
Dajon Williams pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
99.4%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Marcus Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:141% → 0%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
99.5%
Michael Henry run for 14 yds to the NicSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.6%
Michael Henry run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 6
50
0
99.6%
Kalen Henderson pass incomplete to Demon BoltSimilar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 6
50
+5
99.6%
Kalen Henderson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
99.6%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, False Start (Chris Bordelon) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 6
50
0
99.6%
Conner Fryoux punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Darvin Kidsy at the NoTex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
99.6%
Reggie Pegram run for 15 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.6%
Reggie Pegram run for 8 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
99.6%
Reggie Pegram run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Dajon Williams pass incomplete to Carl CaldwellSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+55
99.6%
Dajon Williams run for 55 yds to the NicSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.6%
Willy Ivery run for 4 yds to the NicSt 3Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-10
99.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaydon Kirby) to the NicSt 13Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-1
99.6%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 1 yard to the NicSt 14Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
99.7%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Willy Ivery for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 4:170% → 0%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Michael Henry run for 4 yds to the NicSt 29Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.8%
Kalen Henderson sacked by Austin Orr for a loss of 5 yards to the NicSt 24Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Keenan Canty for 13 yds to the NicSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.8%
Kalen Henderson run for 10 yds to the NicSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Nick Scelfo for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 7
50
-7
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass complete to Demon Bolt for 3 yds to the NORTHTEXAS 47 NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Terry Lucas Jr.) to the NicSt 43Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Kalen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-3
99.8%
Kalen Henderson sacked by A.J. Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the NicSt 40Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 17
OWN 40
+31
99.8%
Conner Fryoux punt for 38 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for 31 yds to the NicSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:05100% → 100%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
99.8%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 23 yds to the NicSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.8%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 6 yds to the NicSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 17PUNT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Beaux Hebert pass incomplete to Terry Lucas Jr.Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Michael Henry run for no gain to the NicSt 25Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Beaux Hebert pass incomplete to Darryl Watson IISimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.8%
Darvin Kidsy 75 Yd Punt Return (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.8%
Beaux Hebert run for 6 yds to the NicSt 41Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+8
99.8%
Michael Henry run for 8 yds to the NicSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Michael Henry run for 5 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Tobias Lofton run for 2 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Michael Henry run for 1 yd to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+20
99.9%
Conner Fryoux punt blocked by Sed Ellis blocked by Sed Ellis Sed Ellis return for 20 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.8%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Carlos Harris for 9 yds to the NicSt 28Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+8
99.8%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Turner Smiley for 8 yds to the NicSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.9%
Reggie Pegram run for 7 yds to the NicSt 13Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
Dajon Williams pass complete to Carlos Harris for 5 yds to the NicSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Reggie Pegram 8 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Beaux Hebert pass incomplete to Keenan CantySimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
99.9%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Nick Scelfo for 6 yds to the NicSt 22Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+12
99.9%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Demon Bolt for 12 yds to the NicSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Michael Henry run for no gain to the NicSt 34Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-7
99.9%
Beaux Hebert sacked by Tillman Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the NicSt 27 NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Beaux Hebert) to the NicSt 27Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 17
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Beaux Hebert pass incomplete to Xavier MarcusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.9%
Erick Evans run for 2 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+19
99.9%
Erick Evans run for 19 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
Erick Evans run for 10 yds to the NicSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.9%
Erick Evans run for 7 yds to the NicSt 40Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+11
99.9%
Erick Evans run for 11 yds to the NicSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Willy Ivery run for no gain to the NicSt 29Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+21
99.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to John Chelf for 21 yds to the NicSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.9%
Erick Evans run for 5 yds to the NicSt 3Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Erick Evans run for 2 yds to the NicSt 1Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Erick Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 22INT TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Xavier Marcus for 16 yds to the NicSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Demon Bolt for 17 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
100.0%
Michael Henry run for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
100.0%
Beaux Hebert run for 2 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+18
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Darryl Watson II for 18 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+98
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass intercepted for a TD Zac Whitfield return for 98 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Beaux Hebert run for 3 yds to the NicSt 28Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
100.0%
Michael Henry run for 4 yds to the NicSt 32Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
Michael Henry run for 5 yds to the NicSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
100.0%
Michael Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 35Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Nick Scelfo for 8 yds to the NicSt 43Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-6
100.0%
Beaux Hebert sacked by Malik Dilonga and Calvin Minor for a loss of 6 yards to the NicSt 37Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Conner Fryoux punt for 29 yds, downed at the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
Andrew Tucker run for 3 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Andrew McNulty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-5
100.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Sean Clayton) to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+4
100.0%
Andrew Tucker run for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Eric Keena punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keenan Canty at the NicSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Nick Scelfo for 3 yds to the NicSt 23Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-10
100.0%
Beaux Hebert sacked by Andy Flusche for a loss of 10 yards to the NicSt 13Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+29
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Michael Henry for 29 yds to the NicSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
100.0%
Beaux Hebert sacked by Tillman Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the NicSt 35Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Tobias Lofton for 2 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
Beaux Hebert pass complete to Keenan Canty for 5 yds to the NicSt 42Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Conner Fryoux punt for 40 yds, downed at the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
100.0%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Turner Smiley for 5 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the NoTex 16 Willy Ivery fumbled, forced by Joel Dullary, recovered by NicSt Tyler HarringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
100.0%
Tobias Lofton run for 2 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
100.0%
Tobias Lofton run for 4 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Dash Duncan pass incomplete to Nick ScelfoSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 4
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Dash Duncan pass incomplete to Reggie WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Andrew Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 10Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
100.0%
Andrew Tucker run for 8 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+5
100.0%
Andrew Tucker run for 5 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Andrew Tucker run for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Andrew Tucker run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+20
100.0%
Andrew Tucker run for 20 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:08
Kalen Henderson pass intercepted for a TD James Jones return for 33 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+0.7
FG · Q1 5:03
Francisco Condado 23 yd FG GOOD
-0.2
TD · Q2 10:08
Dajon Williams pass complete to Marcus Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com