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NMSU

New Mexico State 24 at UTEP 42

UTEP
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:22 · Steven Witkowski punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+9.7Home team on offense+10.9Garbage-time factor+1.0Score differential+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:31: Darrin Laufasa 2 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +2.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:04: Darrin Laufasa 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +6.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Jameill Showers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +7.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:56: Teldrick Morgan 57 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick) — NMSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:25: Aaron Jones 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:51NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:17NMSU 4th & 11 at UTEP 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:04NMSU 4th & 10 at UTEP 42, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:25NMSU 4th & 10 at UTEP 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:21UTEP 4th & 10 at NMSU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:22NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:46NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:51UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:31UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:04UTEP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:54UTEP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:56NMSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:25UTEP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1423% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
77.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 36 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
77.4%
Brandon Betancourt run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+4
77.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
77.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+1
77.4%
Brandon Betancourt run for 1 yd to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
77.4%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
77.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 0
+15
77.4%
PENALTY NMSU false start (Shapiro, Adam) 5 yards to the UTEP32, PENALTY UTEP personal foul (GATHRITE, Nick) 15 yards to the UTEP17, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
75.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 17 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5576% → 76%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.7%
Jameill Showers run for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
75.9%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 9 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
75.9%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 24 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
76.1%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+8
76.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jarrad Shaw for 8 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
76.1%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
76.1%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+9
76.0%
Nathan Jeffery run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
76.1%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.1%
Aaron Jones 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
75.1%
Brandon Betancourt run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
75.2%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
75.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Brandon Betancourt for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+6
75.6%
Steven Witkowski punt for 45 yds , Damian Payne returns for 6 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
75.3%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
75.5%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 2 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-2
75.3%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 49Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+1
74.8%
Mike Ruggles punt for 47 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 84 yds · 4:2126% → 30%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
73.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+1
73.8%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+12
73.8%
Xavier Hall run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
73.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+23
73.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 23 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
72.7%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
72.4%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
71.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 34 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
71.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 4 yds to the UTEP 6Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.0%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the UTEP 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-5
70.7%
Rogers, Tyler flag pass incomplete to Shapiro, Adam, PENALTY NMSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UTEP10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
71.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel Brown, broken up by Nick GathriteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 0
OPP 6
-5
72.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 11Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
70.4%
Maxwell Johnson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:4671% → 76%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
71.1%
Aaron Jones run for 24 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
72.6%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+10
72.6%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Katrae Ford for 10 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
73.1%
Jameill Showers run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
73.1%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+4
72.4%
Jameill Showers run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
73.1%
Nathan Jeffery run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+15
73.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 15 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.8%
Darrin Laufasa 2 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7INT
9 plays · 62 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+26
73.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 26 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
72.1%
Xavier Hall run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
71.4%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
71.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 16 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
70.8%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+11
70.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyler Rogers for 11 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
70.7%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
70.9%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Wesley Miller return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:3174% → 86%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
74.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 13 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
74.2%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 9 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+34
75.4%
Nathan Jeffery run for 34 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
76.2%
Nathan Jeffery run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+6
76.2%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
76.2%
Autrey Golden run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-7
77.2%
JEFFERY, Nathan rush over right guard for 7 yards to the NMSU1 (Rose, Winston), PENALTY UTEP holding (FORD, Katrae) 7 yards to the NMSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+9
77.1%
Aaron Jones run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
76.3%
Nathan Jeffery run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
76.6%
Darrin Laufasa run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.0%
Darrin Laufasa 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0015% → 18%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
84.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 33 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
83.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
83.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
84.5%
Steven Witkowski punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.8%
Nathan Jeffery run for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.7%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Ian HamiltonSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
83.4%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Eric TomlinsonSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
82.9%
Jameill Showers pass intercepted Lewis Hill return for no gain to the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12MISSED FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0819% → 17%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
81.4%
Xavier Hall run for 8 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+5
81.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
80.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 14:33
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
81.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
83.3%
Maxwell Johnson 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 36 yds · 7:0484% → 85%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
83.8%
Nathan Jeffery run for 2 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
83.7%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
83.8%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jarrad Shaw for 7 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
84.6%
Aaron Jones run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
84.7%
Nathan Jeffery run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
84.7%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+8
84.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jarrad Shaw for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
84.7%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-5
86.1%
SHOWERS,Jameill ST pass complete to HAMILTON, Ian for 27 yards to the NMSU0, clock 08:30, PENALTY UTEP holding (FREYTAG, Cole) 5 yards to the NMSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-1
86.0%
Autrey Golden run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 12
OPP 33
-9
85.3%
SHOWERS,Jameill rush left for 2 yards to the NMSU31 (Davis III, King), PENALTY UTEP holding (LEE, Eric) 9 yards to the NMSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 21
OPP 42
+11
85.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Nathan Jeffery for 11 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
84.7%
Jay Mattox 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:5916% → 16%
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+7
84.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam Shapiro, broken up by Adrian JamesSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
84.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
82.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
82.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
83.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
84.5%
Steven Witkowski punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:3585% → 97%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
85.2%
UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Gino Bresolin) to the UTEP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+28
85.1%
Aaron Jones run for 28 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
86.6%
Nathan Jeffery run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
86.8%
Autrey Golden run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
86.7%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
86.8%
Aaron Jones run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
85.9%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 9 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+10
89.5%
Aaron Jones run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
89.5%
Aaron Jones run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
89.5%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.9%
Jameill Showers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:585% → 12%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
95.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
95.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 13 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
95.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+57
88.3%
Teldrick Morgan 57 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 7:2590% → 99%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
89.6%
Nathan Jeffery run for 3 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
89.7%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+8
89.3%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 8 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
90.5%
Jameill Showers run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 3
50
+1
90.6%
Autrey Golden run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+10
90.0%
Jameill Showers run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
90.7%
Brandon Moss run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+16
90.8%
Aaron Jones run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
94.4%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
94.4%
Nathan Jeffery run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
94.4%
Nathan Jeffery run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Aaron Jones 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel BrownSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
97.2%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Damian Payne return for 28 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.5%
David Hamm run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+8
99.5%
David Hamm run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
David Hamm run for no gain to the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:001% → 3%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Andrew Allen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
99.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 21 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
99.4%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 44 Tyler Rogers fumbled, forced by Nick Usher, recovered by NMxSt Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+23
99.4%
Brandon Betancourt run for 23 yds to the UTEP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
99.4%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+7
97.3%
Brandon Betancourt run for 7 yds to the UTEP 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.5%
David Hamm run for 2 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
99.5%
David Hamm run for 5 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Jameill Showers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q4 13:56
Teldrick Morgan 57 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)
-6.8
TD · Q2 1:04
Darrin Laufasa 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com