2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreNMSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:17 · Maxwell Johnson 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:31: Darrin Laufasa 2 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +2.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:04: Darrin Laufasa 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +6.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Jameill Showers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +7.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:56: Teldrick Morgan 57 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick) — NMSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:25: Aaron Jones 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.4%71% to convertField goal22.3%−0.256% to makePunt22.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:51NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it23.9%−0.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%average punt
- Q1 4:32UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 49, tiedClose callPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it75.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:17NMSU 4th & 11 at UTEP 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snapGo for it27.3%−0.522% to convertField goalTheir call27.8%87% to makePunt25.2%−2.6average punt
- Q2 1:04NMSU 4th & 10 at UTEP 42, down 11Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it16.8%30% to convertField goal16.8%−<0.130% to makePuntTheir call16.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:25NMSU 4th & 10 at UTEP 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call16.0%49% to makePunt15.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 6:21UTEP 4th & 10 at NMSU 31, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snapGo for it84.8%−0.429% to convertField goalTheir call85.2%54% to makePunt84.4%−0.9average punt
- Q3 5:22NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 45, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.3%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:46NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.8%97% to makeGo for two23.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:51UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.5%97% to makeGo for two75.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:31UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.0%97% to makeGo for two74.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:04UTEP Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54UTEP Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:56NMSU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.8%97% to makeGo for two10.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:25UTEP Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNMSUDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1423% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
77.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 36 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+4
77.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
77.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 0
+15
77.4%
PENALTY NMSU false start (Shapiro, Adam) 5 yards to the UTEP32, PENALTY UTEP personal foul (GATHRITE, Nick) 15 yards to the UTEP17, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
75.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 17 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5576% → 76%
Q1 11:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
75.9%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 9 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
75.9%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 24 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+8
76.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jarrad Shaw for 8 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
UTEPDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
NMSUDrive 5FG14 plays · 84 yds · 4:2126% → 30%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
73.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+23
73.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 23 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
71.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 34 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
71.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 4 yds to the UTEP 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-5
70.7%
Rogers, Tyler flag pass incomplete to Shapiro, Adam, PENALTY NMSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UTEP10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
71.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jerrel Brown, broken up by Nick GathriteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6TD10 plays · 65 yds · 4:4671% → 76%
NMSUDrive 7INT9 plays · 62 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+26
73.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 26 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
71.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 16 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+11
70.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyler Rogers for 11 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
70.9%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Wesley Miller return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8TD14 plays · 80 yds · 4:3174% → 86%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
74.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 13 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
74.2%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 9 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-7
77.2%
JEFFERY, Nathan rush over right guard for 7 yards to the NMSU1 (Rose, Winston), PENALTY UTEP holding (FORD, Katrae) 7 yards to the NMSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0015% → 18%
UTEPDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
82.9%
Jameill Showers pass intercepted Lewis Hill return for no gain to the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12MISSED FG6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0819% → 17%
Q3 14:33
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+5
81.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13MISSED FG13 plays · 36 yds · 7:0484% → 85%
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
83.8%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jarrad Shaw for 7 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+8
84.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Jarrad Shaw for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-5
86.1%
SHOWERS,Jameill ST pass complete to HAMILTON, Ian for 27 yards to the NMSU0, clock 08:30, PENALTY UTEP holding (FREYTAG, Cole) 5 yards to the NMSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 12
OPP 33
-9
85.3%
SHOWERS,Jameill rush left for 2 yards to the NMSU31 (Davis III, King), PENALTY UTEP holding (LEE, Eric) 9 yards to the NMSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 21
OPP 42
+11
85.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Nathan Jeffery for 11 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 0:5916% → 16%
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+7
84.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam Shapiro, broken up by Adrian JamesSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
84.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
82.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
84.5%
Steven Witkowski punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15TD12 plays · 85 yds · 4:3585% → 97%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
85.2%
UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Gino Bresolin) to the UTEP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD7 plays · 75 yds · 0:585% → 12%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
95.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 13 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+57
88.3%
Teldrick Morgan 57 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17TD14 plays · 70 yds · 7:2590% → 99%
Q4 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+8
89.3%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 8 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
UTEPDrive 19TD4 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
NMSUDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 0:001% → 3%
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
99.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 21 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
99.4%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 44 Tyler Rogers fumbled, forced by Nick Usher, recovered by NMxSt Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 7 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Jameill Showers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q4 13:56
Teldrick Morgan 57 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Maxwell Johnson Kick)
-6.8
TD · Q2 1:04
Darrin Laufasa 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)
+6.4