Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 12 at Alabama 52

ALA
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG—ALA 99.9%Adam Griffith 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 12 - HOME 45 · Q4 6:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:03 · Adam Griffith 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense+35.8Score differential+28.0Garbage-time factor+13.1Blowout margin+11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:32: Blake Sims run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:36: Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:06: Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:15: Corey Acosta 37 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:12: Blake Sims pass complete to Brian Vogler for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:35USM 4th & 6 at ALA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:22USM 4th & 16 at USM 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:36ALA 4th & 3 at USM 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:39USM 4th & 8 at USM 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:25USM 4th & 2 at USM 16, down 11
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:50USM 4th & 17 at USM 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:25USM 4th & 7 at ALA 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:15USM 4th & 8 at ALA 20, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:10USM 4th & 15 at ALA 43, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:50USM 4th & 10 at ALA 13, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:03ALA 4th & 13 at USM 13, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:50USM 4th & 6 at USM 29, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:42ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:32ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:36ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:06ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:12ALA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:48ALA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:16ALA Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 15 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 18 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+24
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 24 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for no gain to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
99.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
99.6%
Corey Acosta 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
99.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Arie Kouandjio) to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for 3 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
99.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+17
99.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 17 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 15 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Blake Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
99.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 13 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
99.5%
Yeldon, T.J. rush for 3 yards to the SOUMISS14, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal formation (Cooper, Amari) 5 yards to the SOUMISS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+22
99.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 22 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.4%
Nick Mullens run for 6 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-13
99.4%
Mullens, Nick pass complete to Triplett, Markese for 11 yards to the SOUMISS37, PENALTY SOUMISS face mask (Hill, Rashod) 13 yards to the SOUMISS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 16
OWN 13
0
99.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 16
OWN 13
+14
99.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 51 yds , Christion Jones returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3799% → 99%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
50
0
99.4%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari Cooper, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
50
+8
99.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 8 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-1
99.3%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
99.3%
JK Scott punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+36
99.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 36 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.2%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+1
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by A'Shawn RobinsonSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:2899% → 99%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
99.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 13 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.1%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
99.0%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+8
99.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.0%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+10
98.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
98.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
98.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+20
98.7%
Blake Sims run for 20 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
98.7%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari Cooper, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
98.7%
Kenyan Drake run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+9
98.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 9 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.0%
Blake Sims run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Daythan DavisSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+8
98.9%
Nick Mullens run for 8 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 2
OWN 16
0
98.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Markese TriplettSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
98.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 22 yds, downed at the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
98.8%
Amari Cooper run for 9 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+10
98.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 10 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
98.8%
Kenyan Drake run for 4 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+6
98.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
98.7%
Blake Sims run for 8 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:201% → 1%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-2
98.9%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-8
99.0%
Nick Mullens sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 48 yds , Tyren Jones returns for no gain to the Alab 29 Tyren Jones fumbled, recovered by SoMis Justin PennSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for no gain to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+3
98.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 3 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
98.9%
Corey Acosta 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.8%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Kenyan DrakeSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
98.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4199% → 100%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
98.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 22 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
98.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 14 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
98.6%
Blake Sims run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+21
98.6%
Derrick Henry run for 21 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
98.6%
Kenyan Drake run for 11 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.5%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Christion JonesSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.5%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the SoMis 1Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:441% → 1%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
99.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Mullens) to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+5
99.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+24
99.3%
Tez Parks run for 24 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.3%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+15
99.3%
Mullens, Nick pass incomplete to Foster, Kyle, dropped pass, PENALTY ALABAMA targeting (Perry, Nick) 15 yards to the ALABAMA38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUMISS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
99.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 16 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
99.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+3
99.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
99.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
98.6%
Corey Acosta 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4599% → 100%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
99.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 27 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
99.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+6
99.2%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
99.1%
Kenyan Drake run for 5 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
99.1%
Blake Sims run for 9 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Brian Vogler for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+27
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 27 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 6 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Norman Price) to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, downed at the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
99.8%
Derrick Henry run for 11 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
99.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Chris Black for 5 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
99.8%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+14
99.8%
Derrick Henry run for 14 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Kenyan Drake run for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
99.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 9 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
99.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to Christion Jones for 22 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Kenyan Drake run for 29 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:300% → 0%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
George Payne run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
50
+12
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 12 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 6 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+8
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 8 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
99.9%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+3
99.9%
Nick Mullens run for 3 yds to the Alab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
99.9%
Corey Acosta 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+22
99.9%
Tyren Jones run for 22 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
99.9%
Tyren Jones run for 16 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
99.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Michael Nysewander for 9 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+6
99.9%
Tyren Jones run for 6 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.9%
Jake Coker run for 5 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
Tyren Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-11
99.9%
Jake Coker sacked by Dasman McCullum for a loss of 11 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
99.9%
Adam Griffith 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Cole Weeks pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cyrus Jones at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Raheem FalkinsSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Altee Tenpenny run for 6 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+1
100.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Robert Foster for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+15
100.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Kelsey Douglas) to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
100.0%
Tyren Jones run for 9 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
100.0%
Tyren Jones run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
100.0%
Altee Tenpenny run for 8 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+6
100.0%
Altee Tenpenny run for 6 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
100.0%
Altee Tenpenny run for 6 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+13
100.0%
Altee Tenpenny run for 13 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Tyren Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
100.0%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:06
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+0.9
FG · Q3 8:15
Corey Acosta 37 yd FG GOOD
-0.6
TD · Q3 5:12
Blake Sims pass complete to Brian Vogler for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com