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ARIZ

Arizona 26 at UTSA 23

UTSA
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 4, 2014 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDSAFETYTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:09 · Kristian Stern punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 179Pregame prior−2.5Home team on offense−8.2Garbage-time factor−6.0Score differential−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:55: Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +4.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 8:47: Kam Jones run for 18 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +8.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. SAFETY · Q2 4:43: Team run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETY — UTSA win probability +4.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:26: Nick Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +13.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:32: David Glasco II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +25.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 9ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 14:42UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05ARIZ 4th & 11 at UTSA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:05UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:05ARIZ 4th & 12 at UTSA 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:11ARIZ 4th & 5 at UTSA 6, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:47ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:39UTSA 4th & 16 at ARIZ 37, up 1
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:43UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 18 at ARIZ 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−3.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:31ARIZ 4th & 19 at UTSA 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−3.8
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−8.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:31UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−4.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:12ARIZ 4th & 9 at UTSA 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−8.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:17UTSA 4th & 4 at ARIZ 8, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−8.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:17ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 46, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:37UTSA 4th & 11 at ARIZ 36, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:32ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−2.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:09UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:10ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.3 ptsPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−8.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:23ARIZ 4th & 4 at UTSA 30, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%−2.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−9.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:42ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:55UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:47UTSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:26ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:32UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
23.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 85 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.2%
Kam Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
23.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 5 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
23.2%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
23.2%
Kristian Stern punt for 41 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 18 yds to the Ariz 43 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:1077% → 76%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
23.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
23.4%
Nick Wilson run for 16 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
23.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 23 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
23.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Triston WadeSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
23.4%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-5
23.4%
Anu Solomon sacked by Ferrington Macon for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
23.7%
Casey Skowron 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
23.8%
David Glasco II run for 6 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-1
23.9%
David Glasco II run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+9
23.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 9 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
23.9%
Brandon Armstrong run for 4 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
23.9%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
23.9%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
23.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:0476% → 76%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
24.1%
Nate Phillips run for 8 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+6
23.9%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
24.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 7 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+20
23.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 20 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
23.7%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
23.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-5
23.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Nick Wilson) to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
23.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
24.2%
Drew Riggleman punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:0124% → 29%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
23.9%
Tucker Carter run for 13 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
24.1%
Kenny Harrison run for 6 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
24.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Freeman for 4 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
24.3%
Austin Robinson run for 8 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
24.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 7 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
24.7%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Jordan Gray) to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+2
24.4%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 13
50
+15
24.4%
Tucker Carter run for 15 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
25.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Cole Hubble for 22 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
25.0%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
25.0%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the Ariz 10Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
29.4%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:4472% → 74%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.3%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
27.7%
Anu Solomon run for 14 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
27.4%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
27.2%
Nick Wilson run for 9 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
27.1%
Nick Wilson run for 9 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+7
26.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 7 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
26.5%
Anu Solomon run for 7 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+6
26.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 6 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
26.5%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+6
26.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 6 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
27.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David Richards, broken up by Triston WadeSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
25.8%
Casey Skowron 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:2427% → 39%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
26.6%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
26.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 4 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+17
26.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for 17 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
27.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 4 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-3
28.0%
Kam Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+13
27.4%
Carter sideline pass incomplete to Thomas Jr., PENALTY ARIZ pass interference (McCall Jr.) 13 yards to the ARIZ44, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
29.2%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kam JonesSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+16
29.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 16 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
30.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 10 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
38.7%
Kam Jones run for 18 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
35.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie Grant, broken up by Crosby Adams IIISimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
36.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
36.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin Hill, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+34
37.1%
Drew Riggleman punt for 43 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for 34 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 2:0640% → 40%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
40.4%
Carter middle pass incomplete to Morgan II, PENALTY UTSA illegal forward pass (Carter) 5 yards to the ARIZ36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+3
39.0%
Tucker Carter run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+2
40.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-6
42.2%
Tucker Carter sacked by Tellas Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 16
OPP 37
0
39.9%
Kristian Stern punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ariz 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11SF
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:4359% → 54%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
40.8%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
41.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 2
-2
45.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
42.6%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
43.4%
Brandon Armstrong run for 5 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-1
43.1%
David Glasco II run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 46Similar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
42.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 2:4254% → 73%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
45.6%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+28
45.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 28 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
43.2%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+13
43.0%
Nick Wilson run for 13 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
42.0%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
42.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+8
42.4%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
40.4%
Solomon rush quarterback draw for 3 yards to the UTSA26 (Douglas), PENALTY UTSA face mask 15 yards to the UTSA14, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
40.4%
Solomon post pass incomplete to Phillips, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Sanchez) 12 yards to the UTSA2, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.1%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
32.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Marcellus Mack, broken up by Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
32.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 19 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, roughing passer (Reggie Gilbert) to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.5%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
35.4%
Tucker Carter run for no gain to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-8
34.5%
Tucker Carter sacked by Scooby Wright III for a loss of 8 yards to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
31.2%
Kristian Stern punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:5068% → 74%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
31.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 17Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+4
31.9%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+7
32.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 7 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
31.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 4 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+37
30.9%
Nick Wilson run for 37 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
28.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 7 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
28.2%
Jared Baker run for 6 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
28.2%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
28.2%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 9
OPP 17
-10
29.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 19
OPP 27
+44
26.1%
Casey Skowron 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for no gain to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
26.5%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
25.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Jordan Gray) to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
25.2%
Tucker Carter run for no gain to the TexSA 15 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
24.7%
Kristian Stern punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:3178% → 80%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
22.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 6 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
22.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
22.5%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
22.1%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+8
21.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 8 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
21.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 2 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+11
21.6%
Solomon deep pass incomplete to Jones,C (Starling), PENALTY UTSA roughing passer 11 yards to the UTSA11, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
21.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
21.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate Phillips, broken up by Nic JohnstonSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
22.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
19.8%
Casey Skowron 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:5520% → 19%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
19.5%
David Glasco II run for 7 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+7
20.2%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 7 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
20.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
21.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for 16 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
22.0%
Tucker Carter run for 1 yd to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+10
22.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 10 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
23.3%
Brandon Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+12
23.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 12 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
22.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 6 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
22.7%
Austin Robinson run for no gain to the Ariz 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
21.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Jarveon Williams for no gain to the Ariz 8Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
18.7%
Sean Ianno 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
19.4%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
19.6%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
19.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Fabbians Ebbele) to the Ariz 21Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+17
20.5%
Jared Baker run for 17 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
17.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin Hill, broken up by Brian KingSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
17.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 7 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+1
17.9%
Jared Baker run for 1 yd to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
19.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0514% → 45%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
14.1%
Carter sideline pass incomplete to Jones,K (Parks), PENALTY ARIZ roughing passer (Ippolito) 15 yards to the UTSA35, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
14.7%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+29
14.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 29 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
18.4%
Tucker Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
18.2%
Team run for no gain to the Ariz 36 Team fumbled, recovered by TexSA Tucker CarterSimilar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
15.7%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Cole HubbleSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+25
14.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 25 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
18.7%
David Glasco II run for 8 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
44.5%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
30.0%
Nick Wilson run for 17 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
27.1%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
27.1%
Anu Solomon run for 4 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-5
27.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Lene Maiava) to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+6
28.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 6 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+8
29.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 20 , Kenny Harrison returns for 8 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
33.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
33.3%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Brandon ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-3
31.5%
Tucker Carter sacked by Reggie Gilbert for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
29.7%
Kristian Stern punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Samajie Grant at the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3479% → 83%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
21.5%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
21.9%
Jared Baker run for 8 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
21.3%
Anu Solomon run for no gain to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
17.5%
Drew Riggleman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
28.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 5 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+11
28.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kenny Harrison for 11 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
29.6%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kenny HarrisonSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
29.0%
Tucker Carter pass intercepted Jared Tevis return for no gain to the TexSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5791% → 93%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
9.4%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-1
8.5%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+6
8.7%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+2
6.8%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
16.6%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Marcellus MackSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
15.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Freeman for 6 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:32
David Glasco II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
+25.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-15.5
TD · Q2 0:26
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com