Try the model
UAB

UAB 34 at Mississippi State 47

MSST
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:09 · Cody Clements run for 1 yd to the MisSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Pregame prior+15.6Home team on offense+21.8Score differential+9.1Garbage-time factor+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.0Time remaining+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 14:03: Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 68 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — UAB win probability +0.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 5:31: Ty Long 44 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +0.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:43: Preston Smith 21 Yd Interception Return (Westin Graves PAT failed) — MSST win probability +0.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 0:43: MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 20 — MSST win probability +1.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 13:03: Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 88 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK) — UAB win probability +0.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UAB made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 14:03UAB 4th & 12 at UAB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18MSST 4th & 25 at MSST 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:18UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:50MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:31UAB 4th & 12 at MSST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:31MSST 4th & 2 at UAB 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:20UAB 4th & 11 at UAB 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:24MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 34, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:37UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:00MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:06UAB 4th & 8 at MSST 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 8:00MSST 4th & 4 at UAB 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:58UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  14. Q2 4:28MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 41, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 14:56UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 12:55UAB 4th & 7 at MSST 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:40MSST 4th & 3 at UAB 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00UAB 4th & 23 at UAB 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:14MSST 4th & 1 at UAB 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:09UAB 4th & 3 at MSST 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−3.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:24MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:28UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:34MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 36, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:03MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:43MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5797% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 6 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
97.2%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 68 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.1%
UAB Penalty, delay of game (Cody Clements) to the UAB 20Similar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
97.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 14 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
97.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 5 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
97.1%
Cody Clements run for 3 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
97.1%
Jordan Howard run for 2 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
97.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
50
-2
97.1%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 48Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
97.1%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamarcus NelsonSimilar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
97.1%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:03
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
97.1%
Hunter Mullins punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
96.8%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+8
96.8%
Damian Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Jordan PettySimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Robert Johnson, broken up by Kalen JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-15
96.8%
Damian Williams sacked by Tevin Crews for a loss of 15 yards to the MisSt 9 Damian Williams fumbled, recovered by MisSt Josh Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 25
OWN 9
0
96.7%
Devon Bell punt for 46 yds, downed at the UAB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.5%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
96.5%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the UAB 46Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+3
96.5%
Jamari Staples run for 3 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
96.5%
Hunter Mullins punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
96.4%
Nick Griffin run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 15
OWN 5
-2
96.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to D.Wilson for 26 yards to the MS31 (JONES, Calvin;BANKS, James), PENALTY MS holding (D.Wilson) 2 yards to the MS3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 17
OWN 3
+6
96.4%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 11
OWN 9
0
96.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 11
OWN 9
+26
96.3%
Devon Bell punt for 41 yds , Jamarcus Nelson returns for 26 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:324% → 4%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
95.9%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Maudrecus HumphreySimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
95.9%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
96.0%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
95.7%
Ty Long 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.7%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
95.7%
Josh Robinson run for 17 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
95.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Robert Johnson for 7 yds to the UAB 47Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
95.8%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the UAB 46Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
95.7%
Devon Bell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jamarcus Nelson at the UAB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
95.3%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 8Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
95.3%
D.J. Vinson run for no gain to the UAB 8Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
95.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamarcus NelsonSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 11
OWN 8
+8
95.4%
Hunter Mullins punt for 56 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 8 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9INT
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
95.1%
Jameon Lewis run for 26 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
95.2%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Kalen Jackson return for no gain to the UAB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10INT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:545% → 4%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
94.8%
Cody Clements run for 1 yd to the UAB 2Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
94.9%
UAB Penalty, false start (N/A) to the UAB 1Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
94.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 5 yds to the UAB 6Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+21
95.6%
Preston Smith 21 Yd Interception Return (Westin Graves PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
96.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 1:253% → 4%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+37
96.6%
Nolen Smith pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 37 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
96.3%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
96.3%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-5
96.6%
UAB Penalty, false start (Jordan Howard) to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+19
96.7%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 19 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.5%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
Jordan Howard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4197% → 97%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
97.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
97.1%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jameon Lewis, broken up by Kalen JacksonSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+6
97.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 6 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Devon Bell punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jamarcus Nelson at the UAB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
96.8%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 88 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:2097% → 97%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Jordan PettySimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+40
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Hill for 40 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
97.2%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+8
97.2%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
97.4%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
97.4%
Josh Robinson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.5%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Kennard Backman for 10 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.4%
D.J. Vinson run for 5 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
97.3%
D.J. Vinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 39Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
97.4%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to N/A UAB Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Hunter Mullins punt for 30 yds, downed at the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Darius WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
97.2%
Nick Griffin run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Nick GriffinSimilar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
97.1%
Devon Bell punt for 49 yds, downed at the UAB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:053% → 3%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+53
97.4%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Jamari Staples for 53 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
96.7%
Jordan Howard run for 2 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
96.6%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Kennard BackmanSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
97.2%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Jamarcus NelsonSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
97.2%
Ty Long 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 2:5897% → 97%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
97.1%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+17
97.1%
Dak Prescott run for 17 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
97.2%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
97.2%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 6 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
97.2%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Jordan PettySimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+5
97.0%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
97.2%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+2
97.2%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the UAB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 20 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.3%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.3%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Kennard Backman for 5 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Jamarcus Nelson, broken up by Taveze CalhounSimilar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+14
97.2%
Hunter Mullins punt for 60 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 14 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
97.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
97.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
97.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Shaq JonesSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
97.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Calvin JonesSimilar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+8
97.0%
Devon Bell punt for 43 yds , Jamarcus Nelson returns for 8 yds to the UAB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22END OF HALF
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
97.6%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 21Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+14
97.6%
Jordan Howard run for 14 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
97.5%
Jordan Howard run for 13 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
97.4%
Cody Clements sacked by Beniquez Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 39Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+7
97.7%
D.J. Vinson run for 7 yds to the UAB 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
96.0%
Jordan Howard run for 6 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 22
-1
96.0%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 21Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Jamarcus Nelson, broken up by Taveze CalhounSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Hunter Mullins punt blocked by Kivon Coman blocked by Kivon ComanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:3996% → 96%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
96.2%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the UAB 12Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+8
96.2%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the UAB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.3%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
96.2%
Cody Clements sacked by Benardrick McKinney for a loss of 8 yards to the UAB 18Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 18
OWN 18
+18
96.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 18 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
96.0%
Jordan Howard run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
50
+4
95.7%
D.J. Vinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+9
95.8%
D.J. Vinson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.7%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Nyiakki Height, broken up by Tolando ClevelandSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
95.8%
Cody Clements run for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-2
95.7%
D.J. Vinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
96.0%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Nyiakki Height, broken up by Jamerson LoveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:1897% → 97%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
96.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon Lewis, broken up by Calvin JonesSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
96.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
96.9%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
97.0%
Josh Robinson run for 13 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
97.0%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
97.0%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+10
96.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 10 yds to the UAB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
97.1%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
97.1%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the UAB 15Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 15 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 27TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:463% → 3%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
96.6%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 19Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+81
96.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 81 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:5197% → 97%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
97.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+11
97.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 11 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
97.2%
Dak Prescott run for 16 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
97.2%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+4
97.1%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+7
96.9%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
97.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 15 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
97.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the UAB 8Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
97.2%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the UAB 8Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
97.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 29PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 1:433% → 3%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
97.0%
Jordan Howard run for 8 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+3
96.8%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the UAB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
96.8%
BRISCOE, Jeremi pass complete to NELSON, JJ for 37 yards to the MS45, PENALTY UAB pass interference (NELSON, JJ) 9 yards to the UAB9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 19
OWN 9
0
97.0%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Jamarcus NelsonSimilar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 19
OWN 9
-4
97.0%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 5
0
97.3%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass incomplete to Maudrecus HumphreySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 5
0
97.3%
Hunter Mullins punt for 53 yds, downed at the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2898% → 98%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
97.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 6 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+11
97.8%
Josh Robinson run for 11 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
97.8%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 42Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
97.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+10
97.7%
Josh Robinson run for 10 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
97.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 31DOWNS
7 plays · 59 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
97.1%
Jordan Howard run for 17 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
97.1%
Jordan Howard run for 7 yds to the MISSSTATE 44 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (P.J. Jones) to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
96.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 12 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
96.5%
Cody Clements run for 5 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
96.5%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+1
96.8%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+1
96.8%
Cody Clements run for 1 yd to the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
97.9%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-5
97.9%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+6
97.9%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+1
97.7%
Devon Bell punt for 55 yds , Jamarcus Nelson returns for 1 yd to the UAB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
97.4%
D.J. Vinson run for 2 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
97.4%
D.J. Vinson run for no gain to the UAB 35Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+9
97.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 9 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
97.4%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-1
97.4%
D.J. Vinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 47Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Cody Clements pass incomplete to Jamarcus NelsonSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
97.5%
Hunter Mullins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 34PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
98.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
98.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
98.4%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
98.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+3
98.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
98.3%
Devon Bell punt for 39 yds , Maudrecus Humphrey returns for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 35TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:382% → 2%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
D.J. Vinson run for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
98.2%
Jeremiah Briscoe pass complete to Quincy Perdue for 75 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 36END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 46Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:43
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 20
+1.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+1
TD · Q1 0:43
Preston Smith 21 Yd Interception Return (Westin Graves PAT failed)
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com