Try the model
ALCN

Alcorn State 20 at Southern Miss 26

USM
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreALCN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:04 · Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jestin Williams at the AlcSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior+37.5Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:54: Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 38 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +5.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:17: Jr. J. Gibbs run for 33 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK) — ALCN win probability +6.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:14: Casey Freeman 4 Yd pass from Jr. Rollins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ALCN win probability +6.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:10: Corey Acosta 41 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +5.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:32: Anthony Williams III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK) — ALCN win probability +20.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ALCN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 14:04USM 4th & 5 at USM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:24USM 4th & 7 at ALCN 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:24ALCN 4th & 4 at ALCN 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:22USM 4th & 1 at ALCN 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:58ALCN 4th & 1 at ALCN 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:09USM 4th & 4 at ALCN 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ALCN 4th & 6 at USM 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:23USM 4th & 1 at USM 29, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:39USM 4th & 6 at ALCN 6, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:39ALCN 4th & 8 at USM 43, down 16
    Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:16USM 4th & 14 at ALCN 26, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:10USM 4th & 12 at ALCN 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:10ALCN 4th & 2 at ALCN 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:32USM 4th & 2 at USM 46, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:59ALCN 4th & 11 at USM 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−1.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:12USM 4th & 6 at midfield, up 6
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALCN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 7:23USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:54USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:17ALCN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:14ALCN Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:32ALCN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:5688% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
88.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
87.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
87.7%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
87.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+2
87.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
87.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jestin Williams at the AlcSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 2FUMBLE
10 plays · 77 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.1%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
87.1%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Jarvis Turner for 11 yds to the AlcSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
87.1%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Jarvis Turner for 11 yds to the AlcSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+35
87.1%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for 35 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
86.9%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Charles Hughes for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+4
87.0%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+11
87.0%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Jarvis Turner for 11 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
86.9%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+2
86.9%
Arron Baker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
87.0%
Arron Baker run for no gain to the SoMis 8 Arron Baker fumbled, forced by Dasman McCullum, recovered by SoMis Brian AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:5486% → 86%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
85.7%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
85.7%
ALCORN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jestin Williams) to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
85.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
86.1%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
86.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+15
86.1%
ALCORN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (W Thomas Ii) to the AlcSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
86.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
86.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the AlcSt 30Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-3
86.2%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 33Similar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
85.7%
SMITH, Ito rush up middle for no gain to the ALCN36 (Cantue, Q.), PENALTY USM illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY ALCN offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
85.6%
Corey Acosta 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
85.6%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 22Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+7
85.6%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Charles Hughes for 7 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
85.6%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to J. McKenzie, broken up by Jacorius CottonSimilar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+7
85.9%
Haiden McCraney punt for 59 yds , Casey Martin returns for 7 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:3185% → 85%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
85.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 9 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
85.3%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
85.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+21
84.9%
Nick Mullens run for 21 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
85.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 8
50
0
85.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 8
50
+32
85.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 32 yds to the AlcSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
85.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise Ricard, broken up by W GatewookSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
85.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 15Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+6
84.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 6 yds to the AlcSt 9Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 1
OWN 0
0
83.5%
PENALTY USM illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY ALCN face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
84.5%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the AlcSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:4215% → 16%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
84.9%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Charles Hughes for 5 yds to the AlcSt 14Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+26
84.6%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 26 yds to the AlcSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
83.9%
ALCORN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the AlcSt 25Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to Charles HughesSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.5%
Jarvis Turner run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 27Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
84.8%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Jordan Payne for 7 yds to the AlcSt 34Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+19
84.5%
Haiden McCraney punt for 51 yds , Casey Martin returns for 19 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:3683% → 88%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
83.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 27 yds to the AlcSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
84.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-3
84.1%
Nick Mullens sacked by Jamil Cooks for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 42Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+14
83.4%
ALCORN ST Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (14 Yards) to the AlcSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
84.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 31Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+2
84.3%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+5
83.9%
ALCORN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AlcSt 24Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+3
84.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the AlcSt 21Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+10
83.6%
ALCORN ST Penalty, personal foul (Hendrick Taylor) to the AlcSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
84.6%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 7Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
88.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 7 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 8INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.5%
Jr. Rollins run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 26Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
87.5%
Anthony Williams III run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
87.6%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass intercepted Kalan Reed return for no gain to the AlcSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
93.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 38 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:377% → 15%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.3%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 30Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+32
92.9%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for 32 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
91.6%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
85.5%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for 33 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:0887% → 91%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+35
87.2%
Tez Parks run for 35 yds to the AlcSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
87.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds to the AlcSt 33Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
88.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+5
87.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 5 yds to the AlcSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
88.3%
Tez Parks run for 9 yds to the AlcSt 19Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 1
OPP 19
-2
88.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 21Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-1
88.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 22Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
90.7%
Corey Acosta 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
89.5%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.0%
Anthony Williams III run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
88.8%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Jarvis Turner for 19 yds to the AlcSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
88.3%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
88.7%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Darryan Ragsdale for 6 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
88.2%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to Jordan Payne, broken up by Jomez ApplewhiteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
88.9%
Haiden McCraney punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
90.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 9 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
89.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 46 yds , Jestin Williams returns for no gain to the AlcSt 26 Jestin Williams fumbled, recovered by SoMis Kevin Williams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1391% → 92%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
91.3%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the AlcSt 19Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+16
91.3%
Ito Smith run for 16 yds to the AlcSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by Daniel FranklinSimilar
Q3 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
91.3%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 1Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
91.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AlcSt 6Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to James CoxSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
92.2%
Corey Acosta 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
90.8%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
90.3%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for 3 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.5%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to Jarvis TurnerSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
90.8%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+2
91.0%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Anthony Williams III for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
91.2%
Haiden McCraney punt for 19 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:2894% → 94%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
94.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
94.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 4 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+31
94.1%
Nick Mullens run for 31 yds to the AlcSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
94.6%
Ito Smith run for 19 yds to the AlcSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
94.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 21Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
94.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tez Parks for no gain to the AlcSt 21Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-5
94.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AlcSt 26Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 14
OPP 26
0
94.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+43
94.2%
Corey Acosta 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 18TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:027% → 14%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
93.2%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 28Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+12
93.0%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to LaDarrien Davis for 12 yds to the AlcSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.8%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to Jarvis TurnerSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
92.9%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for no gain to the AlcSt 40Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
93.0%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to LaDarrien Davis for no gain to the AlcSt 40Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+15
93.5%
McCraney, H. punt 51 yards to the USM9, MARTIN, Casey return to the USM11 (Anderson, D.;Hurns, M.), PENALTY USM illegal block declined, PENALTY USM unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the USM45, 1ST DOWN ALCN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.6%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to Jordan PayneSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
92.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Jacorius Cotton) to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
91.7%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for 3 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
92.0%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to Jr. Rollins for 4 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+10
92.7%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 10 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
92.0%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 9 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
92.0%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to LaDarrien DavisSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
85.8%
Casey Freeman 4 Yd pass from Jr. Rollins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:0489% → 95%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
88.5%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+18
88.6%
Ito Smith run for 18 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
89.4%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST down ALCORN ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
89.7%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the AlcSt 46Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-3
89.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for a loss of 3 yards to the AlcSt 49Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+27
89.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 27 yds to the AlcSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
90.0%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 20Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
90.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-4
89.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Damon Watkins for a loss of 4 yards to the AlcSt 24 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jerry Harris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+41
94.8%
Corey Acosta 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 20TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:387% → 28%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
93.5%
Arron Baker run for 6 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
92.5%
Arron Baker run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 31Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
92.7%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to Charles HughesSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+64
93.0%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for 64 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.4%
Anthony Williams III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.0%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
86.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
86.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
88.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
88.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
88.1%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
87.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
81.3%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 35 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
75.5%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass complete to LaDarrien Davis for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
75.0%
Darryan Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
76.1%
Jr. J. Gibbs run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 46 Jr. J. Gibbs fumbled, recovered by AlcSt Jr. J. GibbsSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
81.9%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass incomplete to Jordan Payne, broken up by Emmanuel JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1795% → 95%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
94.8%
Tez Parks run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
95.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
95.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 6
50
+5
95.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 35 yds , Charles Hughes returns for 5 yds to the AlcSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.7%
Jr. J. Gibbs pass intercepted Jomez Applewhite return for no gain to the AlcSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
97.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 33Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-1
96.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:32
Anthony Williams III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK)
-20.7
TD · Q4 13:14
Casey Freeman 4 Yd pass from Jr. Rollins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-6.3
TD · Q2 4:17
Jr. J. Gibbs run for 33 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com