2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreURI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:56 · Mack Lowrie pass complete to Harold Cooper for 6 yds to the Marsh 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 2:22: Justin Haig 25 yd FG GOOD — URI win probability +0.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:36: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 27 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:00: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:42: Steward Butler run for 39 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6URI made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 15:00URI 4th & 17 at URI 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 12:51URI 4th & 7 at MRSH 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 8:31MRSH 4th & 8 at URI 29, up 7Close callWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%−<0.134% to convertField goal98.4%58% to makePunt98.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 6:51URI 4th & 9 at MRSH 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.132% to convertField goal1.7%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 1:36MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00URI 4th & 7 at URI 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 13:58URI 4th & 4 at MRSH 46, down 7Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%48% to convertField goal2.7%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call2.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:17URI 4th & 15 at URI 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 7:35MRSH 4th & 1 at URI 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.4%59% to convertField goal96.2%−0.394% to makePunt95.4%−1.0average punt
- Q2 4:33URI 4th & 4 at URI 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.145% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 2:22MRSH 4th & 8 at URI 8, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call95.2%90% to makePunt94.1%−1.1average punt
- Q2 1:25URI 4th & 7 at URI 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q3 10:00URI 4th & 13 at URI 22, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q3 6:42URI 4th & 5 at URI 30, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:03URI 4th & 3 at MRSH 3, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%44% to convertField goal0.1%−0.193% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:12URI 4th & 8 at URI 27, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:46MRSH 4th & 11 at URI 49, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 4:01MRSH 4th & 3 at URI 5, up 38Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%45% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−0.192% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 0:56URI 4th & 8 at MRSH 44, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.127% to makePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6URI made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:51MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:36MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:00MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:42MRSH Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:57MRSH Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:03URI Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:12MRSH Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartURIDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 13
0
99.1%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Robbie Jackson for no gain to the RIsld 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2TD3 plays · 54 yds · 0:4499% → 99%
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+39
99.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Davonte Allen for 39 yds to the RIsld 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
99.0%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Phadrae White for 7 yds to the RIsld 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4DOWNS6 plays · 59 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+30
98.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Davonte Allen for 30 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 5PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 6:51
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+10
98.6%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Phadrae White for 10 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+5
98.6%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside (Jarquez Samuel) to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+5
98.6%
Lowrie pass complete to McKeeman for 7 yards to the MARSHALL37 (HOLMES, J.), PENALTY MARSHALL offside (MYERS, R.) 5 yards to the MARSHALL39, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+20
98.1%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 20 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-1
98.1%
Devon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 22 Devon Johnson fumbled, forced by Tim Wienclaw, recovered by Marsh Devon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+51
98.1%
Tyler Williams punt for 51 yds , Lyle McCombs returns for a loss of 1 yard to the RIsld 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:072% → 2%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
98.0%
Mack Lowrie pass incomplete to Robbie Jackson, broken up by Corey TindalSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 16
+5
98.0%
Anthony DiPaula punt for 35 yds , Donquell Green returns for 5 yds to the RIsld 48 Donquell Green fumbled, forced by Tim Wienclaw, recovered by RIsld Hunter EubanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MRSHDrive 9FUMBLE8 plays · 63 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
97.7%
Remi Watson run for 5 yds to the RIsld 34 Remi Watson fumbled, forced by Andrew Bose, recovered by RIsld Rondell Lane , return for 5 yds to the RIsld 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
MRSHDrive 11DOWNS7 plays · 67 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
97.2%
JOHNSON, Devon rush for 2 yards to the MARSHALL47 (Wienclaw;Howard), PENALTY MARSHALL holding (FROHNAPFEL, E.) 10 yards to the MARSHALL35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
97.3%
Rakeem Cato run for a loss of 3 yards to the RIsld 4 Rakeem Cato fumbled, recovered by Marsh Rakeem CatoSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.2%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Davonte Allen, broken up by Abdul IbrahimSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:113% → 3%
Q2 4:33
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+8
96.6%
Anthony DiPaula punt for 47 yds , Tommy Shuler returns for 8 yds to the RIsld 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13FG5 plays · 38 yds · 1:1797% → 96%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
96.6%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 36 yds to the RIsld 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 3 yds · 0:574% → 3%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.4%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, delay of game (Mack Lowrie) to the RIsld 20Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
96.6%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Robbie Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the RIsld 22Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
96.6%
Lyle McCombs run for 6 yds to the RIsld 28 RHODE ISLAND Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
96.6%
Anthony DiPaula punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 24 , Tommy Shuler returns for 7 yds to the Marsh 35 MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Marsh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD6 plays · 76 yds · 0:4297% → 99%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
97.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Davonte Allen for 8 yds to the RIsld 44Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+17
97.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 17 yds to the RIsld 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
98.5%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 27 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17FUMBLE7 plays · 72 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
URIDrive 18INT4 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:14
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+19
97.8%
Mack Lowrie pass intercepted Taj Letman return for 19 yds to the RIsld 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3598% → 99%
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.2%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.9%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, delay of game (Mack Lowrie) to the RIsld 20Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
98.9%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Justin Favreau for 5 yds to the RIsld 25Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
98.9%
Mack Lowrie sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the RIsld 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21TD6 plays · 62 yds · 1:1599% → 100%
URIDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MRSHDrive 23TD13 plays · 64 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
URIDrive 24TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:540% → 0%
Q3 1:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Phadrae White for 10 yds to the RIsld 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Phadrae White for 15 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
99.9%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Lyle McCombs for 25 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 0
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside (Joe Massaquoi) to the Marsh 3Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Charlie McKeeman for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Davonte Allen for 1 yd to the Marsh 31Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 6 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27PUNT10 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+12
100.0%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Justin Hunt for 12 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
100.0%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Josh Knight for 7 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
100.0%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 6 yds to the RIsld 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Justin Hunt MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Tyler Williams punt for 37 yds , Davidson Barthelmy returns for no gain to the RIsld 12 Davidson Barthelmy fumbled, recovered by Marsh Rodney AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28FG5 plays · 7 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 29DOWNS11 plays · 42 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Lyle McCombs for 1 yd to the RIsld 21Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
100.0%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Ezra Holmes for 6 yds to the RIsld 27Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
100.0%
Lowrie pass incomplete to Jackson, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (MANNING, D.) 15 yards to the URI42, 1ST DOWN URI, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
100.0%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Robbie Jackson for 7 yds to the RIsld 49Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+5
100.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside (Jerome Dews) to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-9
100.0%
Mack Lowrie sacked by Joe Massaquoi for a loss of 9 yards to the RIsld 45 Mack Lowrie fumbled, recovered by RIsld Shaban Dika , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+11
100.0%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Phadrae White for 11 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+6
100.0%
Mack Lowrie pass complete to Harold Cooper for 6 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:36
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 27 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q3 10:00
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q3 6:42
Steward Butler run for 39 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
+0.7