2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:03 · Jonathan Barnes 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:33: Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 16 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +9.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:10: Jonathan Barnes 28 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +4.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:11: Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 78 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +16.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:45: Terrance Broadway pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Woods return for 46 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +18.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:32: Kenneth Dixon run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 9LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 11:10UL 4th & 4 at LT 34, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call84.5%−0.147% to makePunt84.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:17LT 4th & 1 at UL 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.3%70% to convertField goal16.1%−0.327% to makePunt16.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:13UL 4th & 6 at UL 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snapGo for it83.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q1 8:18LT 4th & 15 at LT 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.1%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q1 6:23UL 4th & 8 at LT 35, tiedClose callPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it83.0%34% to convertField goal83.0%−<0.145% to makePuntTheir call82.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:54LT 4th & 5 at UL 49, tiedClose callPunted · 20.1% before the snapGo for it20.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:27UL 4th & 1 at LT 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.2%70% to convertField goal79.4%−0.836% to makePunt79.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 2:28UL 4th & 5 at UL 39, down 7Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snapGo for it63.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:10LT 4th & 11 at UL 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snapGo for it40.4%−1.322% to convertField goalTheir call41.6%87% to makePunt36.9%−4.7average punt
- Q3 12:16LT 4th & 6 at LT 48, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it63.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.3%average punt
- Q3 10:14UL 4th & 5 at UL 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.7%−0.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.6%average punt
- Q3 8:39LT 4th & 8 at UL 41, up 17Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it70.0%34% to convertField goal68.4%−1.532% to makePuntTheir call69.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:45UL 4th & 8 at LT 45, down 24Close callWent for it · 9.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.0%−0.334% to convertField goal9.1%−1.225% to makePunt10.3%average punt
- Q3 2:22LT 4th & 1 at UL 46, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.4%70% to convertField goal92.0%−1.423% to makePunt92.5%−0.9average punt
- Q4 11:03LT 4th & 5 at UL 25, up 31Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%41% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%−<0.166% to makePunt98.7%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:47UL 4th & 5 at LT 16, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%39% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.181% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:00UL 4th & 4 at LT 4, down 34Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goal0.1%93% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 4:25LT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.7%97% to makeGo for two19.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.6%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:33LT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.8%97% to makeGo for two32.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:11LT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.8%97% to makeGo for two56.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 3:45LT Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:32LT Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:34UL Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.7%45% to convert
- Q4 4:56LT Touchdown, up 33 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1MISSED FG12 plays · 50 yds · 3:5087% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
87.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 10 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
87.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 4 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
87.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 5 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+17
87.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 17 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
87.0%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Alonzo Harris for 6 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
87.0%
Terrance Broadway pass incomplete to Al Riles, broken up by Xavier WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2DOWNS8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5314% → 15%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
85.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 13 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
85.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Darrell Brown) to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-15
85.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Darrell Brown) to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 17
OWN 40
0
85.9%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Trent Taylor LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+16
85.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 16 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q1 9:13
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
85.4%
Daniel Cadona punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 8:18
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+3
85.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 3 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 11
OWN 14
-4
85.2%
Cody Sokol sacked by Kevin Fouquier and Chris Prater for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 10Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 15
OWN 10
0
85.3%
Logan McPherson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 6:23
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+4
84.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 4 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD1 play · 99 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3182% → 84%
Q1 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
82.1%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Nick Byrne for 5 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
81.8%
SOKOL, Cody right side pass incomplete to TAYLOR, Trent, PENALTY UL pass interference (Walker, Tracy) 6 yards to the LATECH36, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
81.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 5 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
81.5%
Logan McPherson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 46 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 12:27
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+12
82.2%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 12 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
82.9%
Terrance Broadway sacked by Devon McKinney for a loss of 10 yards to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+12
81.9%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Torrey Pierce for 12 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+7
82.5%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Larry Pettis for 7 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD11 plays · 61 yds · 3:5822% → 35%
Q2 8:31
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+19
79.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
77.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Darrell Brown) to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+11
78.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 11 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+12
74.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 12 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
73.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 4 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
73.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for no gain to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+6
74.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 6 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
64.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 16 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0567% → 67%
LTDrive 12FG11 plays · 79 yds · 2:0835% → 42%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
65.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 5 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 5
OWN 15
-5
65.8%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Trent Taylor) to the LaTch 10Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+55
66.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 55 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
61.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 7 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
61.0%
Cody Sokol run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 16 Cody Sokol fumbled, forced by Taboris Lee, recovered by LaTch Cody SokolSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+5
60.5%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Blake Martin for 5 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD3 plays · 79 yds · 0:4942% → 58%
ULDrive 15FUMBLE6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0044% → 47%
LTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
36.3%
Cody Sokol sacked by Justin Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+7
37.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 7 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+3
37.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 3 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
38.2%
Logan McPherson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
35.4%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 6 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-1
35.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
35.3%
Daniel Cadona punt for 41 yds , Trent Taylor returns for no gain to the LaTch 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
31.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 5 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
29.7%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 9 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-2
29.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19INT TD4 plays · 11 yds · 1:2527% → 10%
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+46
9.6%
Terrance Broadway pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Woods return for 46 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20DOWNS6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
9.8%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jared Johnson for 14 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD9 plays · 55 yds · 3:5094% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22FUMBLE3 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
LTDrive 23FG5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q4 12:50
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+5
1.3%
BARNES,Jonathan field goal attempt from 47 BLOCKED, recovered by UL Johnson, Trae at UL35 (blocked by Tovell, Dominique), PENALTY UL offside (Trim, Corey) 5 yards to the UL25, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24TD5 plays · 39 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+9
0.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Jared Johnson for 9 yds to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
0.6%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Al Riles for 7 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
0.7%
Terrance Broadway pass complete to Effrem Reed for 20 yds for a TD, (Hunter Stover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3899% → 100%
Q4 9:34
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+15
0.6%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Sterling Griffin, broken up by Jevante Watson for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (James Butler) to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+18
0.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 18 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26TD18 plays · 84 yds · 4:560% → 0%
Q4 4:56
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+30
0.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 30 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
0.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 7 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-10
0.2%
Reed, Effrem rush off of the right side for 6 yards to the LATECH35, PENALTY UL holding (Horst, Grant) 10 yards to the UL49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+8
0.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Larry Pettis for 8 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+5
0.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 5 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
0.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to C.J. Bates for 17 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
0.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Al Riles for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 22Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+6
0.2%
Brooks Haack pass complete to C.J. Bates for 6 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Gabe Fuselier, broken up by Lloyd GroganSimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+7
0.1%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 7 yds to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.1%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Jared Johnson, broken up by Secdrick CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:45
Terrance Broadway pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Woods return for 46 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q3 14:11
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 78 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-16
TD · Q2 4:33
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 16 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-9.6