Try the model
RUTG

Rutgers 3 at Michigan State 45

MSU
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:16 · Mike Sadler punt for 41 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+18.6Home team on offense+33.4Score differential+23.4Blowout margin+10.1Garbage-time factor+10.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:36: Tony Lippett 30 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:19: Jeremy Langford 18 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:12: Jeremy Langford 38 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:19: Nick Hill 1 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:49: Kyle Federico 44 Yd Field Goal — RUTG win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:46RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:36MSU 4th & 5 at RUTG 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    89.2%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59RUTG 4th & 15 at RUTG 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:38RUTG 4th & 10 at MSU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:40RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:36MSU 4th & 5 at RUTG 24, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:26RUTG 4th & 19 at RUTG 8, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:16MSU 4th & 5 at RUTG 41, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:49RUTG 4th & 8 at MSU 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:36MSU 4th & 6 at RUTG 6, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:22RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 36, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:56RUTG 4th & 1 at MSU 46, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:38MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 28, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:36MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:19MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:12MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:19MSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28MSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:53MSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:096% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
93.7%
Gary Nova sacked by Joel Heath for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+9
93.5%
Josh Hicks run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
93.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
93.4%
Joseph Roth punt for 37 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 38 Macgarrett Kings Jr. fumbled, recovered by MchSt Monty MadarisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:4993% → 93%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
93.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
93.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 23 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
93.3%
Connor Cook run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 21 Connor Cook fumbled, forced by Kenneth Kirksey, recovered by Rutgr Quentin GauseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:157% → 8%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
93.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 9 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
92.9%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
92.8%
Robert Martin run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
92.5%
Robert Martin run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 6
50
+1
92.3%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+1
92.2%
Gary Nova pass intercepted Kurtis Drummond return for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:1692% → 93%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
92.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
92.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 9 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
92.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
92.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+16
91.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 16 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
91.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
91.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony Lippett, broken up by Gareef GlashenSimilar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+30
92.5%
Tony Lippett 30 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:528% → 8%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
92.1%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+2
92.1%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
92.1%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 10
OWN 28
-5
92.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (Steve Longa) to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
92.2%
Joseph Roth punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:3593% → 94%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
92.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
92.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 15 yds to the Rutgr 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
93.8%
Jeremy Langford 18 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:347% → 7%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.4%
Robert Martin run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
93.3%
Robert Martin run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
93.1%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Kevin Snyder, broken up by Demetrius CooperSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+9
93.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 9 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
93.0%
Robert Martin run for 10 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
92.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 9 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+1
92.7%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.5%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
92.6%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
92.8%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre Patton RUTGERS Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
93.1%
Kyle Federico 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2094% → 96%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
93.6%
Keith Mumphery run for 12 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
93.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
93.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+14
93.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 14 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
96.2%
Jeremy Langford 38 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:134% → 4%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.9%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
95.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 4 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Joseph Roth punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:0396% → 99%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
96.3%
Nick Hill run for 8 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+5
96.7%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
96.8%
Connor Cook sacked by David Milewski for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
96.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+16
96.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Nick Hill for 16 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
96.8%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
96.9%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+44
96.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 44 yds to the Rutgr 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.1%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.2%
Nick Hill run for no gain to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
Nick Hill 1 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:051% → 1%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
99.0%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 6 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+8
99.0%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 8 yds to the Rutgr 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.2%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
99.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 8 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+6
99.0%
Robert Martin run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.2%
Justin Goodwin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
99.3%
Gary Nova pass intercepted Riley Bullough return for no gain to the Rutgr 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
99.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 5 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
99.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.2%
R.J. Shelton run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
99.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+10
99.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 10 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
99.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 16 yds to the Rutgr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
R.J. Shelton 7 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.6%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14FUMBLE
11 plays · 69 yds · 5:2999% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
99.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+5
99.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
99.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 18 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.6%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
99.6%
Delton Williams run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
99.6%
Connor Cook run for no gain to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+23
99.6%
Michael Geiger run for 23 yds to the Rutgr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.7%
Nick Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 3 Nick Hill fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Quentin GauseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
99.6%
Martin, Robert rush for 1 yard to the RUTGERS4, PENALTY MICHIGANST offside 5 yards to the RUTGERS8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 5
OWN 8
+1
99.7%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 9
-1
99.7%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+9
99.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 9 yds to the Rutgr 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to John TsimisSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-9
99.7%
Gary Nova run for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 8 Gary Nova fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Gary NovaSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 19
OWN 8
0
99.8%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre Patton, broken up by Tony LippettSimilar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 19
OWN 8
+3
99.8%
Joseph Roth punt for 41 yds , Andre Sims Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
99.7%
Delton Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+7
99.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 7 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+1
99.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 1 yd to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Mike Sadler punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:160% → 0%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
99.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 13 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.8%
Josh Hicks run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre Patton, broken up by Mylan HicksSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 4
50
-5
99.8%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (Kaleb Johnson) to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+27
99.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 27 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.8%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26 Josh Hicks fumbled, forced by Darien Harris, recovered by Rutgr Andre PattonSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre Patton, broken up by Tony LippettSimilar
Q3 0:49
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
99.8%
Kyle Federico 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.8%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+9
99.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
99.8%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+23
99.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 23 yds to the Rutgr 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Delton Williams run for no gain to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Anthony CioffiSimilar
Q4 11:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
99.9%
Michael Geiger 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.9%
Josh Hicks run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-2
99.9%
Josh Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for 5 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Joseph Roth punt for 30 yds, downed at the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
99.9%
Nick Hill run for 19 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-15
99.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (John Jakubik) to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 23
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Madaris, Monty, PENALTY RUTGERS personal foul (Aiken, Johnathan) 15 yards to the RUTGERS45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+24
99.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 24 yds to the Rutgr 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.9%
Connor Kruse run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
99.9%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Nick Hill 16 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21INT
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:340% → 0%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
100.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 4 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
100.0%
Justin Goodwin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+7
100.0%
Chris Laviano run for 7 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+7
99.9%
Robert Martin run for 7 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
100.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 22 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Chris Laviano pass intercepted, touchback. Arjen Colquhoun return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Delton Williams run for no gain to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
100.0%
Damion Terry run for 8 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Mike Sadler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
100.0%
Robert Martin run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:12
Jeremy Langford 38 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)
+2.4
TD · Q1 3:19
Jeremy Langford 18 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)
+1.4
TD · Q2 5:19
Nick Hill 1 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com