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MICH

Michigan 24 at Rutgers 26

RUTG
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:26 · Will Hagerup punt for 46 yds, downed at the Rutgr 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.7Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:23: Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 80 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico BLOCKED) — RUTG win probability +12.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:43: De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +17.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:22: Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +14.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:12: Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +16.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:17: Devin Gardner run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +27.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:09MICH 4th & 3 at RUTG 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29RUTG 4th & 10 at MICH 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:26MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:32RUTG 4th & 5 at MICH 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:35MICH 4th & 6 at RUTG 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:17MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:26RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 45, up 2
    Close callWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:50RUTG 4th & 17 at RUTG 2, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−5.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:10MICH 4th & 12 at MICH 39, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:42RUTG 4th & 3 at MICH 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−1.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:34RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−5.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:01MICH 4th & 8 at RUTG 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−3.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−7.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:10MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:43MICH Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:22RUTG Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:12RUTG Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:17MICH Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:3945% → 45%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
55.1%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+26
55.1%
Derrick Green run for 26 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
55.1%
Derrick Green run for no gain to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
55.1%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+23
55.2%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 23 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
54.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
54.9%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 6 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 21
-1
54.9%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
54.9%
Matt Wile 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:2155% → 56%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
55.1%
Desmon Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
54.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Desmon Peoples for 6 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+53
54.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 53 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
55.8%
Desmon Peoples run for no gain to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
55.7%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
55.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
55.8%
Kyle Federico 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4845% → 44%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.4%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
55.1%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
55.4%
Devin Gardner sacked by Kemoko Turay for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
56.1%
Will Hagerup punt for 46 yds, downed at the Rutgr 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2856% → 58%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
55.8%
Janarion Grant run for 16 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
56.6%
Justin Goodwin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
56.8%
Gary Nova pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+24
56.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 24 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
57.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-1
56.8%
Justin Goodwin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+11
56.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 11 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
57.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for no gain to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
57.5%
Kyle Federico 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0242% → 49%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
57.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 23 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
56.0%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 8 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
55.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
56.0%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Dennis Norfleet for 4 yds to the Rutgr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
55.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 20 yds to the Rutgr 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
55.3%
Devin Gardner run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
51.2%
Devin Gardner run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:3053% → 55%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.0%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.8%
Desmon Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
51.9%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (Gary Nova) to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+20
51.9%
Gary Nova run for 20 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
53.6%
Desmon Peoples run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
54.3%
Desmon Peoples run for no gain to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+6
52.7%
Gary Nova run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+6
54.8%
Tim Gleeson punt for 49 yds , Dennis Norfleet returns for 6 yds to the Mich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4546% → 51%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
53.6%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+21
53.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 6 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
52.0%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Dennis Norfleet for 20 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
50.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mason Cole) to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
51.8%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+14
52.3%
Devin Gardner run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
47.7%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to A.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
48.8%
Will Hagerup punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
60.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 80 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5637% → 35%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
62.8%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Dennis NorfleetSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-9
63.1%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mich 27 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyle Kalis) to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+11
63.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Justice Hayes for 11 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-1
64.1%
Devin Gardner sacked by Julian Pinnix-Odrick and Kemoko Turay for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
65.2%
Will Hagerup punt for 61 yds, downed at the Rutgr 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:1961% → 61%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+33
61.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Desmon Peoples for 33 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
62.6%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
61.7%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 10
OWN 45
-2
60.6%
Michael Burton pass complete to Tim Gleeson for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1739% → 58%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
61.5%
Dennis Norfleet run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+2
60.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
60.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 28 yds to the Rutgr 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
60.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.5%
Devin Gardner run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:0846% → 64%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 5 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
46.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 6 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
46.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 4 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
48.0%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+27
45.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 27 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
51.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 12 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
51.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+14
51.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 14 yds to the Mich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.2%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
49.8%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
65.0%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4060% → 58%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
60.3%
Desmon Peoples run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-1
60.3%
Desmon Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-9
59.2%
Gary Nova sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 17
OWN 2
0
58.0%
Tim Gleeson punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1043% → 39%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-13
57.4%
Devin Gardner sacked by Steve Longa and Kenneth Kirksey for a loss of 13 yards to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 23
OWN 28
+11
60.3%
Devin Gardner run for 11 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
60.0%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
61.5%
Will Hagerup punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:0861% → 63%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-12
60.6%
Gary Nova sacked by Willie Henry for a loss of 12 yards to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 22
OWN 10
+13
60.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 13 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+26
59.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 26 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
64.2%
Justin Goodwin run for 4 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
64.9%
Justin Goodwin run for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
64.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 7 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
65.2%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
65.1%
Justin Goodwin run for 7 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
64.8%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
62.7%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17INT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1740% → 40%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
59.7%
Derrick Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-10
60.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Miller) to the Mich 19Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 22
OWN 19
+11
61.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
60.0%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
58.5%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
60.2%
Devin Gardner pass intercepted Davon Jacobs return for no gain to the Rutgr 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18TD
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:4664% → 85%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.9%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
62.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 10 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
65.8%
Janarion Grant run for 7 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
66.1%
Desmon Peoples run for 5 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
66.3%
Desmon Peoples run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+16
66.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 16 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
68.1%
Desmon Peoples run for 6 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-5
68.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (Andre Patton) to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
68.7%
Desmon Peoples run for 10 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
68.7%
RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
+10
68.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 10 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
84.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:0817% → 44%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
83.3%
Derrick Green run for 8 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
82.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+8
83.6%
Derrick Green run for 8 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
83.1%
Derrick Green run for 21 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
83.3%
Devin Gardner run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
83.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
55.8%
Devin Gardner run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3367% → 66%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
67.0%
Justin Goodwin run for no gain to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
66.8%
Justin Goodwin run for no gain to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+26
65.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 26 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
71.5%
Justin Goodwin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
69.3%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to John TsimisSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
67.0%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
66.0%
Tim Gleeson punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:1435% → 33%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
64.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 9 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+4
63.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
64.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Khalid Hill for 12 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
62.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+17
61.9%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 17 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
60.2%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
60.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
61.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+56
67.0%
Matt Wile 56 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kemoko TuraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:3082% → 95%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
82.1%
Desmon Peoples run for 8 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
85.2%
Desmon Peoples run for 3 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
87.9%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
89.2%
Desmon Peoples run for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+3
91.6%
Desmon Peoples run for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
-3
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:17
Devin Gardner run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)
-27.4
TD · Q2 1:43
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)
-17.4
TD · Q4 13:12
Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com