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PSU

Penn State 13 at Rutgers 10

RUTG
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:33 · Chris Gulla punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior−12.4Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 13:00: Sam Ficken 25 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:44: Timeout PENN ST, clock 06:44 — RUTG win probability +11.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:13: Bill Belton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +57.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q4 1:06: Gary Nova sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 23 — RUTG win probability +12.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:41: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 41 — PSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 11:38PSU 4th & 12 at RUTG 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:30RUTG 4th & 16 at RUTG 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:33PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:40PSU 4th & 14 at RUTG 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:49PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:47RUTG 4th & 12 at PSU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:05PSU 4th & 2 at RUTG 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−2.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:12RUTG 4th & 11 at PSU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−2.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:32RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:41PSU 4th & 4 at RUTG 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:50RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 35, up 10
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:45PSU 4th & 11 at RUTG 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−2.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−9.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:42RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:00PSU 4th & 2 at RUTG 8, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.8%−1.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−15.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:03RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:06PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:33PSU 4th & 14 at RUTG 36, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.0 ptsPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−4.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:02RUTG 4th & 6 at PSU 44, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−3.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−2.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:47RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:32RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:13PSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:1265% → 63%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
35.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 24 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
35.4%
Bill Belton run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
35.6%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
35.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
35.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
35.9%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
36.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 12
OPP 32
0
36.6%
Chris Gulla punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0037% → 37%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
36.6%
Paul James run for 15 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
36.9%
Paul James run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-10
37.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaleb Johnson) to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 16
OWN 21
0
37.1%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 16
OWN 21
0
37.0%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to John TsimisSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 16
OWN 21
0
37.0%
Joseph Roth punt for 51 yds, downed at the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5763% → 62%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
37.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
37.4%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+1
37.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
37.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
38.1%
Chris Gulla punt for 33 yds, downed at the Rutgr 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:4738% → 39%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
38.3%
Paul James run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+16
38.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 16 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
39.1%
Paul James run for no gain to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
39.3%
Gary Nova pass intercepted Trevor Williams return for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4962% → 61%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
38.1%
DaeSean Hamilton run for 9 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-2
37.7%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-2
38.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Quentin Gause for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
39.2%
Chris Gulla punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
39.2%
Gary Nova pass intercepted Adrian Amos return for no gain to the Rutgr 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 12 yds · 2:5162% → 60%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
37.6%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+6
38.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 6 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
38.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+9
38.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the Rutgr 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
37.7%
Bill Belton run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-10
37.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Angelo Mangiro) to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 19
OPP 22
0
37.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 19
OPP 22
+5
38.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+34
39.9%
Sam Ficken 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kemoko TuraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:0241% → 51%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
40.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 17 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
41.2%
Gary Nova run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
42.3%
Desmon Peoples run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
42.1%
Gary Nova run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
42.8%
Desmon Peoples run for no gain to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
42.7%
Gary Nova run for 10 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
43.6%
Desmon Peoples run for 21 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
44.4%
Desmon Peoples run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
44.7%
Desmon Peoples run for 4 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
50.5%
Gary Nova run for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:3251% → 47%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
49.2%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
49.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
49.0%
Christian Hackenberg run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
49.4%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
51.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-3
51.9%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Kevin Snyder for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
53.2%
TEAM punt blocked by TEAM blocked by TEAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5854% → 52%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
53.6%
Gary Nova pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
54.7%
Gary Nova sacked by C.J. Olaniyan for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 49 Gary Nova fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Gary Nova , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
53.2%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
52.0%
Joseph Roth punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:3747% → 44%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
53.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 10 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
52.8%
Zach Zwinak run for no gain to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
53.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+14
54.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 14 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
52.2%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
52.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
55.3%
Christian Hackenberg run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
55.6%
Chris Gulla punt for 39 yds, downed at the Rutgr 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12FG
18 plays · 78 yds · 4:4657% → 65%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
56.9%
Paul James run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+2
57.1%
Paul James run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+19
57.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 19 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
58.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 16 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
60.8%
Paul James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
60.0%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to John TsimisSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+21
57.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 21 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
61.0%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 10 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
61.1%
Paul James run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+13
61.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 13 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
62.2%
Gary Nova sacked by Deion Barnes for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 19
OPP 23
-5
63.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 24
OPP 28
+13
62.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Paul James for 13 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
61.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
65.1%
Kyle Federico 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
65.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1864% → 63%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.2%
Desmon Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
64.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 5 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
64.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
63.1%
Joseph Roth punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4735% → 33%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
65.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 9 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
64.3%
Bill Belton run for 4 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
64.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
65.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
64.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
66.6%
Chris Gulla punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4668% → 68%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
67.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 11 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
68.4%
Paul James run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
68.8%
Paul James run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
69.3%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to John TsimisSimilar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
68.3%
Joseph Roth punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:2934% → 34%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+31
66.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 16 yds to the RUTGERS 48 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
65.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+26
65.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Lorenzo Waters return for 26 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.6%
Gary Nova pass intercepted Trevor Williams return for no gain to the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:1430% → 33%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+33
70.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 18 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
68.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 10 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
67.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
67.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+11
67.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 11 yds to the Rutgr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
66.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 24 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
67.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 5 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
69.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
67.9%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Kevin Snyder for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+7
69.7%
Zach Zwinak run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-5
71.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Darius Hamilton for a loss of 5 yards to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
67.1%
Sam Ficken 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:5371% → 72%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.4%
Paul James run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
72.4%
Gary Nova pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
71.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (Keith Lumpkin) to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
72.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+16
72.0%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 16 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
72.3%
Tim Gleeson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:3530% → 41%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
70.3%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
70.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+47
72.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 47 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
64.3%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+7
64.7%
Bill Belton run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
64.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
65.1%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
70.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 1 yd to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
59.3%
Sam Ficken 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:5266% → 67%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
65.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 12 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
68.5%
Desmon Peoples run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
67.4%
Gary Nova run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
68.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 7 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-1
70.5%
Desmon Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
69.3%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
66.6%
Tim Gleeson punt for 38 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for no gain to the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4536% → 32%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
64.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 3 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
64.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
66.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
67.7%
Chris Gulla punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.1%
Gary Nova pass intercepted Brandon Bell return for no gain to the Rutgr 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:1241% → 29%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
58.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
58.3%
Bill Belton run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
57.6%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-4
57.6%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Lorenzo Waters for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 14
OPP 36
-10
69.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Gaia) to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 24
OPP 46
+10
70.1%
Christian Hackenberg run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
71.2%
Christian Hackenberg punt for 5 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1482% → 86%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
82.0%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 9 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+12
85.4%
Paul James run for 12 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
86.2%
Paul James run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
87.0%
Paul James run for 1 yd to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
87.1%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
85.7%
Tim Gleeson punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:3924% → 91%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+53
76.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 53 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
69.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-10
69.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+23
73.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 23 yds to the Rutgr 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
66.6%
Bill Belton run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
9.4%
Bill Belton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 28INT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:1925% → 18%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
25.2%
Gary Nova sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 18
OWN 23
-1
20.5%
Gary Nova run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 27 RUTGERS Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 19
OWN 22
+7
19.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 7 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
17.9%
Gary Nova pass intercepted Ryan Keiser return for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4194% → 94%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
6.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+5
5.7%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
Bill Belton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)
-57.1
SACK · Q4 1:06
Gary Nova sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 23
+12.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:44
Timeout PENN ST, clock 06:44
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com