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CMU

Central Michigan 38 at Purdue 17

PUR
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:48 · Danny Etling pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 10 yds Raheem Mostert fumbled, recovered by CMich Brandon Greer
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense−22.9Score differential−13.7Garbage-time factor−6.8Pregame prior+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:29: Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 65 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +3.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:51: Danny Etling run for 4 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +9.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:48: Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +9.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:03: Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +13.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:34: Brian Eavey 23 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 11CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:50PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:30CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:59PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:50PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:34CMU 4th & 12 at PUR 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:36PUR 4th & 1 at CMU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−2.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:12PUR 4th & 6 at CMU 30, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:16CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41PUR 4th & 10 at CMU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:38CMU 4th & 27 at CMU 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:38PUR 4th & 6 at CMU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−5.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:48PUR 4th & 3 at CMU 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−3.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:34CMU 4th & 4 at PUR 6, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−5.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:12CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 39, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:36PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:50PUR 4th & 1 at CMU 12, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:30CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:29CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:51PUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:48CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:03CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5859% → 59%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.7%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
58.8%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
58.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
58.7%
Thomas Meadows punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Saylor Lavallii at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1641% → 41%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
58.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Courtney WilliamsSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
58.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 1 yd to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+6
58.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 6 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+21
58.9%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 53 yds , Frankie Williams returns for 21 yds to the PURDUE 48 PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Prdue 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3INT TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3059% → 57%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
58.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 3 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+17
58.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Justin Sinz for 17 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
59.3%
Danny Etling sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 43Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
59.0%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+57
57.1%
Brandon Greer 57 Yd Interception Return (Brian Eavey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:0157% → 57%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
57.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 9 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+1
57.5%
Akeem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
57.4%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
57.1%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
57.0%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
56.7%
Thomas Meadows punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Saylor Lavallii at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:2544% → 47%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
56.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Courtney WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
56.5%
Thomas Rawls run for 9 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
56.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
52.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 65 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1053% → 52%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
53.2%
Raheem Mostert run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 7Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+5
52.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 5 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
52.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 7
OWN 12
-2
52.1%
Thomas Meadows punt for 34 yds , Saylor Lavallii returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:1149% → 52%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
50.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 1 yd to the Prdue 47Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
50.7%
Cooper Rush run for 6 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
50.6%
Jesse Kroll run for 4 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
50.2%
Saylor Lavallii run for 4 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-6
48.1%
Cooper Rush sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 39Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
48.3%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
48.5%
Matt Mills punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 7:3349% → 54%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
49.2%
Raheem Mostert run for 5 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
49.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 6 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
48.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Cameron Posey for 6 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
49.1%
Raheem Mostert run for 2 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
48.9%
Raheem Mostert run for 4 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
48.7%
Danny Etling run for 1 yd to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
48.8%
Raheem Mostert run for no gain to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+8
48.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Gabe Holmes for 8 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
47.5%
Raheem Mostert run for 5 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
47.3%
Raheem Mostert run for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+5
46.7%
Akeem Hunt run for 5 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+6
45.5%
Danny Etling run for 6 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
45.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Justin Sinz for 7 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
45.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+3
44.5%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
44.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 11 yds to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.3%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:5150% → 62%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
50.3%
Rush, Cooper pass incomplete to Rice, Anthony, PENALTY PURDUE personal foul (Williams, Frankie) 15 yards to the CENTMICH42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTMICH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
48.9%
Devon Spalding run for 13 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+40
48.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Thomas Rawls for 40 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
47.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10MISSED FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 5:1840% → 36%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
39.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 9 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
40.1%
Raheem Mostert run for no gain to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
39.9%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
39.4%
Danny Etling run for 6 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
39.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Akeem Hunt for no gain to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+9
39.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 9 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
39.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
39.4%
Raheem Mostert run for 12 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
39.8%
Raheem Mostert run for no gain to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
39.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Gabe Holmes for 7 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
38.1%
Danny Etling run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-5
36.9%
PURDUE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
36.3%
Paul Griggs 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4368% → 68%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
32.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
32.0%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
32.2%
Cooper Rush sacked by Ryan Russell for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
32.5%
Matt Mills punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1234% → 33%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
34.2%
Danny Etling sacked by TEAM for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 47 Danny Etling fumbled, recovered by Prdue J.J. Prince , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
34.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
33.6%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
32.7%
Thomas Meadows punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Saylor Lavallii at the CMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
30.7%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 2:0770% → 71%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.2%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
29.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 2 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
30.2%
Cooper Rush sacked by Antoine Lewis for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 13 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by CMich Jesse Kroll , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 22
OWN 13
-5
30.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 8Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 27
OWN 8
+21
29.5%
Matt Mills punt for 42 yds , B.J. Knauf returns for 21 yds to the CMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3432% → 33%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
32.0%
Raheem Mostert run for 4 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
31.9%
Raheem Mostert run for 3 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-3
30.8%
Raheem Mostert run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
33.1%
Paul Griggs 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1268% → 87%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
32.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Thomas Rawls for 14 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
30.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 15 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
29.2%
Thomas Rawls run for 5 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
28.7%
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
27.5%
Thomas Rawls run for 12 yds to the Prdue 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
26.7%
Thomas Rawls run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 11Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
13.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:0617% → 17%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
17.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Raheem MostertSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
17.0%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 24Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
16.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+27
16.7%
Danny Etling run for 27 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
18.6%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
18.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Justin Sinz for 7 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
18.3%
Raheem Mostert run for no gain to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+10
17.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 10 yds Raheem Mostert fumbled, recovered by CMich Brandon GreerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:4489% → 97%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
11.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 7 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+1
10.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+9
8.7%
Thomas Rawls run for 9 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
8.2%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
7.8%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+21
7.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 21 yds to the Prdue 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
6.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 9 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
6.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
6.1%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the Prdue 9Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
5.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the Prdue 6Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
5.8%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
3.3%
Brian Eavey 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19Uncategorized
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:15100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 12
OWN 10
-1
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:454% → 4%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
3.7%
Danny Etling run for 1 yd to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
3.7%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+10
3.5%
Danny Etling run for 10 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
3.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 7 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
3.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 5 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:4797% → 98%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
2.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 3 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-4
2.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Thomas Rawls for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+14
2.3%
Thomas Rawls run for 14 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
1.9%
Thomas Rawls run for 16 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
1.8%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+2
1.7%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+44
1.6%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Ja'Whan Bentley return for 44 yds to the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
3.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 23 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5298% → 99%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
1.7%
Thomas Rawls run for 10 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
1.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 1 yd to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
1.4%
Thomas Rawls run for 6 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
1.1%
Thomas Rawls run for no gain to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+5
0.7%
Matt Mills punt for 44 yds , B.J. Knauf returns for 5 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
1.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
1.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 5 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
1.3%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
1.3%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:3299% → 100%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
0.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 11 yds to the Prdue 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
0.6%
Thomas Rawls run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 18Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+2
0.6%
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
0.5%
Thomas Rawls run for 16 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26DOWNS
16 plays · 64 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
1.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Raheem Mostert for 9 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+7
1.0%
Raheem Mostert run for 7 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-2
0.9%
Austin Appleby sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 38Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+13
0.7%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Dolapo Macarthy for 13 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.7%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
0.7%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+16
0.7%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Cameron Posey for 16 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
0.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Dolapo Macarthy for 12 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.8%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
0.8%
Austin Appleby run for 9 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
0.8%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
0.8%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Gabe HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:03
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q2 9:51
Danny Etling run for 4 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 7:48
Thomas Rawls run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com