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OSU

Ohio State 31 at Penn State 24

PSU
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+37.5PSU 59.3%Sam Ficken 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 17 · Q4 0:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:09 · Sam Ficken 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 177Pregame prior−0.1Home team on offense+4.4Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:08: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 24 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +21.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. FG · Q4 0:09: Sam Ficken 31 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +37.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Bill Belton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds for a TD J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +39.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +17.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 7:59PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:02OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:38PSU 4th & 6 at OSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:07OSU 4th & 25 at PSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:41PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:03OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:18PSU 4th & 16 at PSU 4, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:17PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 38, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:01OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:25PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:28OSU 4th & 1 at PSU 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.9%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:09OSU 4th & 4 at PSU 23, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−7.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:08OSU 4th & 18 at OSU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−4.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:34PSU 4th & 22 at PSU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:10OSU 4th & 3 at PSU 42, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−5.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−4.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:17PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:58OSU 4th & 9 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:09PSU 4th & 6 at OSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−21.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−33.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:15OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:58OSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:37PSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:08PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3919% → 20%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
19.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 10 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.4%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
19.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
20.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Vonn Bell return for no gain to the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:4480% → 80%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
19.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
20.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+10
20.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
20.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Devin SmithSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
20.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 8 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+4
21.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
20.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0220% → 21%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
20.4%
Bill Belton run for 4 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
20.7%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
20.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 3 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
20.9%
Chris Gulla punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4879% → 79%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
20.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
20.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
20.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the OhSt 46Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+37
21.1%
Cameron Johnston punt for 37 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:1421% → 22%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
21.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+16
21.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
21.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+9
22.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 9 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
22.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 4 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
22.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
22.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+5
22.4%
Chris Gulla punt for 43 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 5 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6FG
18 plays · 59 yds · 7:2578% → 78%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
22.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 12 yds to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
22.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 21 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
21.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 3 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
21.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
21.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
21.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 7 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+9
21.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 9 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
21.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
21.5%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
21.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
21.8%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
21.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Ezekiel Elliott) to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+4
21.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Anthony Zettel) to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
21.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Dontre Wilson, broken up by Jordan LucasSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-5
21.8%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Michael Thomas) to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 16
OPP 23
-9
22.2%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Deion Barnes for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 25
OPP 32
+49
22.4%
Sean Nuernberger 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1122% → 22%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
21.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
22.4%
Bill Belton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
22.0%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
21.7%
Chris Gulla punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2778% → 79%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
22.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 10 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
22.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
21.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
20.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the OhSt 47Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
21.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (NA) to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
21.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3722% → 21%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
21.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
21.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 10
-6
21.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Darron Lee and Joey Bosa for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 4Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 16
OWN 4
0
20.8%
Chris Gulla punt for 35 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for no gain to the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:1580% → 84%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
20.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 14 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
20.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+8
20.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
20.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
20.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0416% → 15%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds DaeSean Hamilton fumbled, recovered by PnSt Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
16.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 10 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
16.6%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
16.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
15.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno Lewis, broken up by Armani ReevesSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
15.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1088% → 88%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
12.1%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the OhSt 35Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
12.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-3
11.8%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OWN 38
-3
12.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1188% → 80%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
12.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
12.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 2 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+40
20.4%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted for a TD Anthony Zettel return for 40 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2879% → 79%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
19.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
19.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+6
20.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-1
19.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Evan Spencer for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 41Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
21.0%
Cameron Johnston punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1820% → 18%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
19.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
19.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-7
18.7%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 14
OWN 16
-9
18.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 45 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for a loss of 9 yards to the OhSt 30 Jalin Marshall fumbled, recovered by OhSt Jalin MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:0880% → 81%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
20.2%
Dontre Wilson run for 14 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
19.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
19.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Marcus AllenSimilar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
19.6%
Cardale Jones run for no gain to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
20.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
18.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Devin Smith, broken up by Marcus AllenSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
18.8%
Jalin Marshall run for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+11
19.1%
Jalin Marshall run for 11 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
17.2%
Dontre Wilson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
17.2%
Dontre Wilson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
17.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete, broken up by Anthony ZettelSimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
19.2%
Sean Nuernberger 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4619% → 22%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
19.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-3
20.1%
DaeSean Hamilton run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+15
18.8%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to Lewis, Geno, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Apple, Eli) 15 yards to the PENNST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
20.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike Gesicki, broken up by Vonn BellSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
20.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 3 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+8
19.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
21.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
21.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Tyvis Powell return for no gain to the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4582% → 80%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
18.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 24Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 16
OWN 24
-7
19.2%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Brandon Bell for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 17Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 23
OWN 17
+5
19.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+6
20.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 44 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 6 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2620% → 16%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
19.9%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-3
19.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-7
16.9%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Adolphus Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 22
OWN 28
0
16.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
17.3%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted Mike Hull return for 12 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:0721% → 43%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
20.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 5 yds to the PnSt 40 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (DaeSean Hamilton) to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
18.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+15
18.2%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to James, Jesse, PENALTY OHIOST roughing passer (Bosa, Joey) 15 yards to the OHIOST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
20.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
19.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 8 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
20.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
21.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 3 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
21.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 1 yd to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
43.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 24 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4670% → 71%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
30.0%
Jalin Marshall run for 3 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
28.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+8
28.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 8 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
26.9%
Dontre Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+7
28.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 7 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+3
27.4%
Dontre Wilson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
29.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 41 yds, downed at the PnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4836% → 31%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
36.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 15 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
37.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 5 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
37.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+5
35.0%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to Hamilton, DaeSean (Reeves, Armani), PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Reeves, Armani) 5 yards to the PENNST28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
36.8%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-2
36.9%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
33.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
31.3%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 23 yds, downed at the OhSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1177% → 76%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
23.1%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
22.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+4
21.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 4
OPP 45
-5
22.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (NA) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 9
50
0
23.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25FG
22 plays · 77 yds · 2:4534% → 59%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
33.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Akeel LynchSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
30.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
30.0%
Christian Hackenberg run for 2 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
32.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 7 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
32.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 2 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
31.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
31.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
32.7%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+5
29.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 5 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
28.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed Blacknall, broken up by Eli AppleSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
25.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 11 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
27.9%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Joey Bosa for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 17
50
+22
21.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Curtis Grant) to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
37.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean Hamilton, broken up by Armani ReevesSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
30.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 10 yds to the OhSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
35.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
29.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 4 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
29.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
59.3%
Sam Ficken 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 75%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
64.7%
Lynch, Akeel rush for 10 yards to the OHIOST15, PENALTY PENNST holding (Mahon, Brendan) 10 yards to the OHIOST35, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+18
63.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 18 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
64.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the OhSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
62.3%
Christian Hackenberg run for 2 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
64.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the OhSt 1Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.0%
Bill Belton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
80.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+17
80.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 17 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds for a TD J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 29TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
40.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mike Hull) to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
40.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
40.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
22.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30Uncategorized
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 20%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
24.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 5 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
25.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
-8
20.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Joey Bosa for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds for a TD J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-39.9
FG · Q4 0:09
Sam Ficken 31 yd FG GOOD
+37.5
TD · Q4 11:08
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 24 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)
+21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com