Try the model
WIS

Wisconsin 14 at Northwestern 20

NU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:33 · Chris Gradone punt for 36 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 178Pregame prior−0.2Home team on offense+26.1Garbage-time factor+16.7Score differential+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.0Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:38: Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +9.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:44: Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +19.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 6:58: Miles Shuler run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +19.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:14: Jack Mitchell 22 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +9.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:16: Joel Stave pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 19 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +19.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 12:53NU 4th & 4 at WIS 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:27NU 4th & 5 at WIS 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:30WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 19, down 3
    Close callPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:29NU 4th & 8 at WIS 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:22WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:24NU 4th & 2 at WIS 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−1.0
    66% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:48NU 4th & 4 at WIS 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:10WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:56NU 4th & 15 at WIS 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:13WIS 4th & 1 at NU 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−4.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−15.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:25NU 4th & 13 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−2.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:53WIS 4th & 5 at NU 32, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:14NU 4th & 5 at WIS 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−8.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:50WIS 4th & 26 at NU 32, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:26NU 4th & 6 at NU 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:38NU 4th & 1 at NU 29, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:33NU 4th & 3 at WIS 36, up 6
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:38NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:44WIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:58NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:16WIS Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:4827% → 28%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
26.9%
Treyvon Green run for 14 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
27.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
27.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
27.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 7 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
27.7%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
27.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
27.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
27.9%
Chris Gradone punt for 41 yds, downed at the Wisc 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2INT
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:3072% → 71%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
27.8%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Kenzel Doe for no gain to the Wisc 6Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+58
28.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 58 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
28.1%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
28.2%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 9 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+8
28.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 8 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
28.5%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-1
28.6%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
29.0%
Tanner McEvoy pass intercepted, touchback. Godwin Igwebuike return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:4730% → 33%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
29.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Austin Carr for 18 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
29.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Warren Long for 5 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
30.5%
Warren Long run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+18
30.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Jayme Taylor for 18 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
31.1%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 2
OPP 30
-6
31.4%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Matt Frazier) to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
31.7%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Wisc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
31.9%
Trevor Siemian run for 7 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+7
32.1%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
32.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
32.7%
Treyvon Green run for 1 yd to the Wisc 5Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
32.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle PraterSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
33.1%
Jack Mitchell 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5167% → 65%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
33.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-4
33.7%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 11Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+8
34.6%
Tanner McEvoy run for 8 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
34.7%
Drew Meyer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5035% → 35%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
34.8%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
35.2%
Trevor Siemian run for 5 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
35.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
35.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
35.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
34.9%
Chris Gradone punt for 33 yds, downed at the Wisc 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:0765% → 62%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
35.4%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Wisc 9Similar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 5
OWN 9
+4
35.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+6
35.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Wisc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
35.8%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Melvin GordonSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
36.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 10 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
36.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 7 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
35.7%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
36.1%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+2
37.1%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+8
37.7%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 8 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
37.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 6:2938% → 56%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
38.1%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
38.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
38.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 10 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
39.9%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Derrick Tindal for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+35
40.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 35 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
43.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
43.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
43.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+2
42.2%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
45.0%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
45.3%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+4
44.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Warren Long for 4 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+7
43.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 7 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
46.3%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1845% → 43%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
55.0%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Kenzel DoeSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
55.3%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
56.2%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Sam ArnesonSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
57.1%
Drew Meyer punt for 46 yds, downed at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:0055% → 56%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
54.9%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
57.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-2
58.0%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Michael Trotter for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+20
55.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 20 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
58.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Kyle Prater) to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 15
OPP 41
0
58.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
58.3%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 15
OPP 41
0
57.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Stephen BuckleySimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
55.8%
Chris Gradone punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:4641% → 41%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
58.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+19
58.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 19 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
59.4%
Joel Stave sacked by Xavier Washington and Collin Ellis for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:0542% → 57%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
57.8%
Kenzel Doe run for 1 yd to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+61
58.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 61 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
56.8%
Gordon, Melvin rush for 5 yards to the NORTHWSTRN9, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Traylor, Austin) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+15
58.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Corey Clement for 15 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
57.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+3
60.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
61.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:0850% → 50%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
49.5%
Justin Jackson run for 18 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
51.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 14 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
54.4%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 13
50
0
52.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 13
50
0
51.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 13
50
+2
50.1%
Chris Gradone punt for 40 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 2 yds to the Wisc 48 WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the Wisc 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1350% → 47%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
50.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+3
51.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 5
OWN 11
0
52.7%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Jimmy Hall return for no gain to the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
72.4%
Miles Shuler run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:5631% → 28%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Ramesh for 9 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
67.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
68.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
69.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
69.5%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
71.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 13 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
68.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to George RushingSimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
69.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 12 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
69.1%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
69.4%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
69.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Jordan FredrickSimilar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
72.3%
Rafael Gaglianone 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:2775% → 89%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
75.0%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
76.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
76.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Mike McHugh for 15 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
78.0%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
78.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+6
78.8%
Treyvon Green run for 6 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+12
78.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 4 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Arthur Goldberg) to the Wisc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
80.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Wisc 5Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle PraterSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
88.9%
Jack Mitchell 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:1115% → 11%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
85.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+31
85.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 31 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
85.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+11
85.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 11 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
84.7%
Corey Clement run for 13 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
85.1%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-10
86.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 21
OPP 27
0
87.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 21
OPP 27
0
88.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Jordan FredrickSimilar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 21
OPP 27
-5
89.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Delay of Game (Joel Stave) to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 26
OPP 32
0
89.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 28 yds, downed at the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1293% → 94%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
92.9%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 8
0
93.0%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
93.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
93.5%
Chris Gradone punt for 36 yds, downed at the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19INT
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:2412% → 10%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.4%
Kenzel Doe run for no gain to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
88.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Austin TraylorSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
88.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 11 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
88.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+9
88.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
89.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 12 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.7%
Joel Stave pass intercepted, touchback. Godwin Igwebuike return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1096% → 97%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
95.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-5
96.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+14
96.0%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
96.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+19
97.1%
Chris Gradone punt for 33 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 19 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:055% → 24%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
95.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 24 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
76.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 19 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:3691% → 96%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
90.6%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
91.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+16
91.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 16 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
94.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
94.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
95.4%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
96.1%
Chris Gradone punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:099% → 9%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Kenzel DoeSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
91.2%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Godwin Igwebuike return for 11 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:58
Miles Shuler run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+19.7
TD · Q3 10:44
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-19
TD · Q4 4:16
Joel Stave pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 19 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com