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NU

Northwestern 29 at Penn State 6

PSU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:10 · Chris Gradone punt for 38 yds NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense−15.3Pregame prior+8.0Score differential−5.1Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:38: Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +3.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:05: Sam Ficken 42 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:17: Sam Ficken 36 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:49: Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted for a TD Anthony Walker return for 49 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell MISSED) — NU win probability +11.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:55: Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 8 yds to the PnSt 7 — NU win probability +6.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:52NU 4th & 10 at PSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:30PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:53PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:22NU 4th & 3 at PSU 3, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−6.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:02PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:29NU 4th & 12 at PSU 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:11PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:10NU 4th & 5 at NU 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:00PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:35PSU 4th & 8 at NU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:28NU 4th & 6 at NU 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:32PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:55NU 4th & 18 at NU 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−4.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:17PSU 4th & 10 at NU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−7.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:02PSU 4th & 2 at NU 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−3.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−4.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:10NU 4th & 8 at NU 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:41PSU 4th & 26 at PSU 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−5.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:14NU 4th & 6 at NU 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:06NU 4th & 2 at PSU 7, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−11.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:17PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−2.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:01PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 44, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:45NU 4th & 12 at PSU 22, up 23
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:29NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:38NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:4926% → 26%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
74.4%
Treyvon Green run for 5 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
74.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
74.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 28 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
74.2%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 25
OPP 42
+2
74.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 23
OPP 40
0
74.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 23
OPP 40
+13
74.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 13 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
74.0%
Jack Mitchell 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3974% → 74%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
74.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
74.0%
Bill Belton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-3
73.8%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+42
73.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 40 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 42 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:1427% → 29%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
73.2%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+6
73.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 6 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+28
73.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Mike McHugh for 28 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.3%
Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3071% → 71%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
71.4%
Zach Zwinak run for 5 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
71.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
71.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
70.9%
Chris Gulla punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:4329% → 36%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
70.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 14 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
70.5%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
69.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 4 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
69.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+7
69.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 7 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
69.3%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
69.0%
Dan Vitale run for no gain to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+18
68.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 18 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.5%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.2%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.4%
Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3466% → 63%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
65.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
65.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-5
63.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
63.0%
Chris Gulla punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:0338% → 39%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
61.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Mark Szott for 22 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
61.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
60.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.2%
Christian Salem run for no gain to the PnSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1262% → 60%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
61.7%
Christian Hackenberg run for 2 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+7
61.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+15
60.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 15 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
61.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Bill BeltonSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
60.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-3
60.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
59.6%
Chris Gulla punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:2842% → 46%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
58.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 7 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+9
57.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
50
0
56.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
50
+14
56.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 14 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
55.8%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
55.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
54.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 7
OPP 33
-5
54.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
54.1%
Chris Gradone punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3454% → 51%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.5%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-4
53.3%
Zach Zwinak run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-4
52.7%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Drew Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
50.9%
Chris Gulla punt for 52 yds, downed at the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5650% → 49%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
50.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
50.1%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
49.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
51.0%
Chris Gradone punt for 41 yds, downed at the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:2350% → 46%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
49.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 3 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
48.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
48.4%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
47.4%
Christian Hackenberg run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+51
45.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 51 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
48.4%
Bill Belton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
48.3%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
46.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
46.3%
Sam Ficken 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by C.J. RobbinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5257% → 61%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
43.2%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
43.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+23
43.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 23 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
40.6%
Warren Long run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
50
-1
38.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Warren Long for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
38.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
39.5%
Chris Gradone punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 1:1841% → 48%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
40.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Bill BeltonSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
40.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andrew Nelson) to the PnSt 10Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+10
39.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 10 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+15
39.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Kyle Prater) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 3 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
41.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 7 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
42.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 14 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
42.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 11 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
44.9%
Christian Hackenberg run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
42.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Bill BeltonSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+42
48.4%
Sam Ficken 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
44.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1646% → 44%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.5%
Christian Hackenberg run for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
44.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
43.5%
Chris Gulla punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2058% → 57%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
42.3%
Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-13
41.6%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Deion Barnes for a loss of 13 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+1
43.3%
Warren Long run for 1 yd to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 18
OWN 32
+41
43.0%
Chris Gradone punt for 39 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 41 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18FG
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:2345% → 45%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
45.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 11 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
45.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
45.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
43.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Bill BeltonSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
45.4%
Sam Ficken 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19INT
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:3457% → 63%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
42.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+9
41.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 9 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
40.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 11 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
39.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 26 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
37.4%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted Adrian Amos return for 2 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:2042% → 38%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
42.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Angelo Mangiro) to the PnSt 7Similar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+3
41.3%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+29
40.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 29 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
42.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 6 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-2
44.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+14
41.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 14 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
44.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
43.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 5 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+3
42.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 3 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
38.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2966% → 66%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
34.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
33.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
34.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+23
34.5%
Chris Gradone punt for 38 yds NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 2:2237% → 29%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
35.7%
Bill Belton run for 9 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
36.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chance Carter) to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
37.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
37.0%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Dean Lowry for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-15
33.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Clipping (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 26
OWN 38
0
30.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 26
OWN 38
0
29.4%
Chris Gulla punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1371% → 70%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
29.0%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
27.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
27.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Eric Olson) to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
28.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+2
30.0%
Chris Gradone punt for 35 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24INT TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:1231% → 20%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
30.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 12 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+49
19.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted for a TD Anthony Walker return for 49 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
17.8%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Xavier Washington for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 15 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, forced by Xavier Washington, recovered by Nwest Connor Mahoney , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4989% → 91%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
11.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 8 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
11.0%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the PnSt 7Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
11.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+23
9.2%
Jack Mitchell 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3811% → 9%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
10.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
10.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for no gain to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+9
9.1%
Christian Hackenberg run for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-2
9.1%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1795% → 99%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
5.2%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
5.0%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
4.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
4.8%
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
4.3%
Warren Long run for 3 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.0%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.8%
Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:172% → 1%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
1.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (5 Yards) to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+13
1.6%
Bill Belton run for 13 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
1.5%
Bill Belton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Bill BeltonSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:5399% → 99%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
0.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+21
0.6%
Warren Long run for 21 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
0.5%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-9
0.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 15 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+1
0.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+2
0.3%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+9
0.6%
Warren Long run for 9 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.7%
Zach Zwinak run for 4 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
0.7%
Zach Zwinak run for 3 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+10
0.7%
Cole Chiappialle run for 10 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:49
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted for a TD Anthony Walker return for 49 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell MISSED)
-11.1
FG · Q2 0:05
Sam Ficken 42 yd FG GOOD
+7
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:55
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 8 yds to the PnSt 7
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com