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WIU

Western Illinois 7 at Northwestern 24

NU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:45 · Nathan Knuffman punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nwest 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Pregame prior+10.8Home team on offense+20.2Score differential+6.8Garbage-time factor+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:54: Solomon Vault run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +1.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:39: Justin Jackson run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +4.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:50: Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39 — NU win probability +2.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:34: Trevor Siemian pass incomplete — NU win probability +2.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:39: Solomon Vault run for 16 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST down — NU win probability +2.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 10:31WIU 4th & 1 at NU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:50NU 4th & 4 at NU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:23WIU 4th & 12 at WIU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:38WIU 4th & 10 at NU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:41NU 4th & 6 at NU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:02WIU 4th & 2 at NU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:17NU 4th & 10 at NU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00WIU 4th & 9 at NU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:27WIU 4th & 3 at NU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:31NU 4th & 1 at WIU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−2.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:35NU 4th & 13 at NU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:38WIU 4th & 9 at WIU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:15NU 4th & 3 at WIU 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:02WIU 4th & 6 at NU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:49NU 4th & 1 at WIU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:00WIU 4th & 1 at WIU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:34NU 4th & 6 at WIU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:45WIU 4th & 10 at WIU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:35NU 4th & 3 at WIU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:09NU 4th & 6 at WIU 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:04WIU 4th & 12 at WIU 40, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:24NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:09WIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:54NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:39NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:1695% → 95%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
95.0%
Treyvon Green run for 7 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
94.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 4 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
94.9%
Treyvon Green run for 25 yds to the WIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
94.8%
Miles Shuler run for 4 yds to the WIll 30Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
94.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+15
94.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 15 yds to the WIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
94.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the WIll 12Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+11
94.6%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the WIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 2:585% → 6%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
94.6%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to J.C. Baker for 8 yds to the WIll 48Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+11
94.5%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Quadarias Mireles for 11 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
94.5%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Hi-C Scott for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
94.4%
Trenton Norvell pass incomplete to Hi-C ScottSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
94.4%
J.C. Baker run for 6 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+1
94.3%
Trenton Norvell run for 1 yd to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
94.2%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Hi-C Scott for 21 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
94.1%
Trenton Norvell pass incomplete to Hi-C ScottSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
94.1%
J.C. Baker run for 6 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.6%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 4 yds for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5594% → 93%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
93.6%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Solomon Vault for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
93.6%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+2
93.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Jayme Taylor for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+13
93.2%
Chris Gradone punt for 38 yds , Hi-C Scott returns for 13 yds to the WIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:187% → 7%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
93.1%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Quadarias Mireles for 6 yds to the WIll 37Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-10
92.9%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WIll 27Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+2
92.9%
J.C. Baker run for 2 yds to the WIll 29Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
92.8%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+7
92.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Keith Watkins, Keith Watkins return for 7 yds to the WIll 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:4393% → 93%
Q1 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.1%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the WIll 4Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
92.9%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the WIll 1Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
92.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WIll 6Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
92.5%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Jean-Marc Charles for a loss of 7 yards to the WIll 13 Trevor Siemian fumbled, recovered by WIll Jean-Marc Charles , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:428% → 9%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
92.1%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Sean Sullivan) to the WIll 8Similar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+20
92.2%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 20 yds to the WIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
91.9%
Kyle Hammonds run for 15 yds to the WIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
91.3%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Jaelon Acklin for 4 yds to the WIll 47Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
91.1%
Trenton Norvell pass incomplete to Jaelon AcklinSimilar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+11
91.0%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 11 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
90.8%
Kyle Hammonds run for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
90.6%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
90.8%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
91.1%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4492% → 91%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
91.5%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 33 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 7
OWN 23
+7
91.5%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
91.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+5
90.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 5 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
90.7%
Chris Gradone punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WIll 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0710% → 10%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
90.5%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the WIll 6Similar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 15
OWN 6
0
90.5%
J.C. Baker run for no gain to the WIll 6Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+18
90.3%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to J'Vaughn Williams for 18 yds to the WIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
89.8%
J.C. Baker run for 3 yds to the WIll 27Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
89.6%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-10
89.8%
Trenton Norvell sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 10 yards to the WIll 17 Trenton Norvell fumbled, recovered by Nwest Ifeadi Odenigbo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2391% → 93%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
91.1%
Miles Shuler run for 6 yds to the WIll 11Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
92.8%
Solomon Vault run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:358% → 9%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
92.4%
J.C. Baker run for 3 yds to the WIll 19Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+16
92.3%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Quadarias Mireles for 16 yds to the WIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.1%
Lance Lenoir run for 9 yds to the WIll 44Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
91.5%
J.C. Baker run for 1 yd to the WIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
91.7%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to J.C. Baker for 4 yds to the WIll 49Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
91.3%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Hi-C Scott for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
91.3%
Devon Moore run for no gain to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
91.4%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 20 yds, downed at the Nwest 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2892% → 91%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
91.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 21 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
92.3%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 49 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 17
OWN 41
+2
91.9%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+5
91.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 5 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
91.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Chris Gradone punt for 47 yds , Hi-C Scott returns for no gain to the WIll 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 12DOWNS
17 plays · 72 yds · 5:078% → 10%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
92.0%
J.C. Baker run for 3 yds to the WIll 8Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+2
91.9%
J.C. Baker run for 2 yds to the WIll 10Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+10
91.8%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Quadarias Mireles for 10 yds to the WIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
91.3%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 3 yds to the WIll 23Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
91.1%
Trenton Norvell run for 6 yds to the WIll 29Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
90.9%
WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the WIll 24Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
91.1%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Hi-C Scott for 14 yds to the WIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
90.4%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Hi-C Scott for 7 yds to the WIll 45Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
89.6%
J.C. Baker run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
50
+12
89.3%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 12 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
89.1%
J.C. Baker run for 14 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-7
88.3%
Trenton Norvell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 31 Trenton Norvell fumbled, recovered by WIll Trenton NorvellSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+8
89.2%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to J.C. Baker for 8 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
88.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+6
90.0%
Nathan Knuffman 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Max Chapman Chi Chi Ariguzo return for 6 yds to the Nwest 36 Chi Chi Ariguzo fumbled, recovered by WIll Brett TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:1311% → 12%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
89.2%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 33 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.8%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
87.9%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 5 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+2
87.8%
Devon Moore run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
88.3%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3789% → 95%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
89.4%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
90.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+8
89.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
50
-5
90.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+10
89.4%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the WIll 45Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
90.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the WIll 42Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
89.6%
Treyvon Green run for 1 yd to the WIll 41Similar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
88.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the WIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
89.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 18 yds to the WIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
90.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the WIll 21Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
94.5%
Justin Jackson run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Trenton Norvell pass intercepted Nick VanHoose return for no gain to the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5295% → 94%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle PraterSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
94.4%
Treyvon Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
94.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+1
93.7%
Chris Gradone punt for 54 yds , Hi-C Scott returns for 1 yd to the WIll 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:506% → 6%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
93.7%
J.C. Baker run for 1 yd to the WIll 10Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
93.5%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
93.6%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
93.7%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1695% → 94%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
94.8%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 8
50
+5
94.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Jayme Taylor for 5 yds to the WIll 45Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
94.3%
Chris Gradone punt for 32 yds, downed at the WIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:077% → 7%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
93.4%
J.C. Baker run for 2 yds to the WIll 15Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+22
93.4%
J.C. Baker run for 22 yds to the WIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
93.1%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 8 yds to the WIll 45Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
92.6%
J.C. Baker run for 3 yds to the WIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
93.0%
Kyle Hammonds run for 5 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
92.8%
Kyle Hammonds run for no gain to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+5
92.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offside Defense (5 Yards) to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
92.7%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Hi-C Scott for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+6
93.0%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 6 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
93.1%
Trenton Norvell run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
93.3%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0196% → 96%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
96.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
96.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+7
96.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 7 yds to the WIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
96.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the WIll 46Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
96.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the WIll 40Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
96.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the WIll 39Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
95.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the WIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:506% → 7%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
93.8%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 9 yds to the WIll 48Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-1
93.3%
J.C. Baker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 47Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
93.7%
J.C. Baker run for 1 yd to the WIll 48Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
93.8%
Devon Moore run for 1 yd to the WIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
93.5%
J.C. Baker run for 4 yds to the Nwest 47 J.C. Baker fumbled, forced by Ifeadi Odenigbo, recovered by Nwest Greg KuharSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.3%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
96.4%
Miles Shuler run for 4 yds to the WIll 49Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+5
96.2%
Chris Gradone punt for 37 yds , Hi-C Scott returns for 5 yds to the WIll 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:456% → 6%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
94.4%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+21
94.5%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Quadarias Mireles for 21 yds to the WIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.6%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
93.7%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
94.4%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:0497% → 97%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
96.5%
Solomon Vault run for 16 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.8%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
96.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Austin Carr for 10 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST down WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
97.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
96.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the WIll 49Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+2
97.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Jayme Taylor for 2 yds to the WIll 47Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Chris Gradone punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WIll 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:485% → 4%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
95.2%
J.C. Baker run for 1 yd to the WIll 2Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+15
95.2%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 15 yds to the WIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
94.9%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 8 yds to the WIll 25Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
94.1%
J.C. Baker run for 5 yds to the WIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.4%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-6
94.9%
Trenton Norvell sacked by Dean Lowry for a loss of 6 yards to the WIll 24Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 16
OWN 24
-8
95.9%
Trenton Norvell sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 8 yards to the WIll 16 Trenton Norvell fumbled, forced by Ifeadi Odenigbo, recovered by Nwest Deonte Gibson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0598% → 99%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
97.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 17Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+1
97.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the WIll 16Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+4
97.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the WIll 12Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+28
99.3%
Jack Mitchell 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:552% → 2%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.0%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-7
98.1%
Trenton Norvell sacked by Max Chapman for a loss of 7 yards to the WIll 35Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+5
98.2%
Trenton Norvell pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 5 yds to the WIll 40Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
98.3%
Trenton Norvell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:5699% → 99%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:39
Justin Jackson run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+4.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:34
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete
+2.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:50
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com